Dollar Rate

Greymatter1957

This is my first Posting; hopefully I’m posting within the right Forum?
I've sold a property in the USA and the money is deposited in a Dollar account with HSBC.
I have a quandary as what to do now, should I leave in a NO increase Dollar account and track the Dollar rate over say the next Six months.
Or should I convert to Pounds and lock it away at the best interest at the moment, for say Two years.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated…. Thanks

grey_gym_sock

what do you plan to do with the money? i.e. if you'll spend it, in which currency? or if you'll re-invest it, where?

Greymatter1957

If/When I spend the money it will be in the UK. I'm really asking for peoples feeling as to what will happen to the Dollar rate or should I exchange now and invest? Thanks

grey_gym_sock

well, the exchange rate has been around the 1.55-1.65 range for about 2 years, and currently near the bottom of that range ... so as long as it stays range-bound, now would be a good time to convert.

obviously it will leave the range at some time ... i have no idea on which side.

i'd convert now, especially if you're going to invest the money. but it's very much a matter of opinion.

Ronnie_Grimes

wales100 wrote: »

I would convert now, I suspect the dollar will weaken against sterling in the coming months due to the Olympics and the positive effect it should have on the UK economy

I agree with this. The dollar is strong at the moment but having trouble getting above 82 on the USDX. If the US Fed announce more money printing over the next few mths you need to get out of the dollar quickly. Don't lock it up, the worlds changing far too quickly

aqueoushumour01

it's a very difficult call; the us dollar is being supported by its status as a safe haven currency and its thusfar stronger economy (hence absence of qe) and difficult to see this effect waning given issues in the eurozone. in other words the dollar can appreciate even if things slow domestically. that said, if its economy continues to cool then the likelihood of more qe increases which is negative for the dollar. i think the dollar will decline longer term given its significant budget and trade deficits but the nearer term outlook is more difficult. it is looking like its economy is slowing and the anticipation of qe is likely to begin to weigh on the currency. i'd be inclined to convert back to sterling now.

innovate

Ronnie_Grimes wrote: »

If the US Fed announce more money printing over the next few mths...........

aqueoushumour01 wrote: »

i think the dollar will decline longer term given its significant budget and trade deficits but the nearer term outlook is more difficult. it is looking like its economy is slowing and the anticipation of qe is likely to begin to weigh on the currency.

You make it sound like there is no risk/chance of any further money printing / QE in the UK, and like the UK economy was in good shape. If only you were right.

As far as the OP's question is concerned, my view is that anything is a gamble. It could be the right decision to pull the money back into the UK now, or it could be better to wait a few months. Anyone knowing the answer now would be unspeakably rich.

sabretoothtigger

The right answer would be both currencies are trashy. Dollar is supported by the world trade being priced in dollars. People hold dollars who will never visit that country

We tend to follow the dollar, so theres not that much to say as its pretty deliberate that we copy their policy to try and siphon off business by being in sync.

The trend at present seems to be running parallel to the year start. Which is a rising sterling. Reasonable targets seem to be 1.57 and 1.61 so long as we close each friday above 1.55 or so then the trend is up I think. It is sideways in general though by design

Do you have to convert all at once, just take it out gradually. You will get an average.
Or you could gamble on the people saying dollar will go to zero as they cannot pay 15tn of debt back.
The biggest negative for dollar now is if Euro starts to rise back in value.
This is all mostly about politics as all three of those currencies have trade imbalance hence its anchored to bonds