Preparedness for when

Frugalsod

mardatha wrote: »

I'm way behind on posts - just catching up.
GreyQueen I'm sitting just under 1000ft, but there's lots of hills around me here at over 2000ft, feel free to pop up. Price of admittance is a large bag of sweeties

Are you going to be like a troll demanding a bag of jelly babies to cross the bridge or are you really the Black Knight?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690

ivyleaf

I now have a wonderful mental image of mardatha sitting under the bridge holding out a large sack for would-be bridge crossers to drop their offerings of jellybabies into :rotfl:

GreyQueen

ivyleaf wrote: »

I now have a wonderful mental image of mardatha sitting under the bridge holding out a large sack for would-be bridge crossers to drop their offerings of jellybabies into :rotfl:

:eek: Shhhhh!!!!!!!!! Don't give her ideas, I'm already adding an emergency pack of jelly babies to the BOB, in case I need to bribe my way up onto Mardatha's hill. I may have to get another passport, in a name off the distaff side of the family tree, the one with the Mac in it, in case I need to go native on said hill.

Actually, that might not be a very good idea, the MacInnits had a pretty rough reputation for brawling and thieving cattle, no wonder that ancestor came down to Engerland, probably had to leave home one step ahead of the thievees.

One of his descendants was nicking cars in Lunnon Town as a yoof. Only the details change <sigh>

Frugalsod

Karmacat wrote: »

Mar - I've seen the financial mutterings too, and I agree, we're in for some troubled times. I see the Lehman Bros implosion as the first bit, the Eurozone crisis as the second, and the third, probably a toss up still between the Chinese slowdown and the dollar crisis ... really working on upping the food stocks.

The Lehmans collapse was not the first. There were strains in banks here before that. Credit has tightened up and it was irrelevant as to the first bank to fail. They all ran the same business model and had way too much debt, and they still do.

All that the intervening years have done is been extend and pretend hoping that it will all work out in the end. There is now even more debt in the world and the world economy is only marginally bigger. So that debt burden is much higher. The Austrian and post Keynesian (like Steve Keen, and Yanis Varoufakis) economists are right that the debts need to be eliminated. The fact that we should have had hyper inflation according to Austrian economists does demonstrate their economic models are very incomplete. Also when this credit bubble implodes it will not mean hyper inflation. It will mean everything will drop in value and cost. Wages could fall and if that happens watch out for a wave of foreclosures as property values could fall so far that only those without a mortgage will escape. Though their home could fall in value as much as 90%. The same will apply to stock markets.

All that the governments and central banks have managed to do is delay the inevitable fall in to a depression. So think Greece in every country in Europe. In the 1930's the governments did the right thing by allowing debts to be written down and forcing people to take losses. Then they did things to stimulate demand like spending programs which worked until the some in government got concerned about the levels of government debt and stopped spending causing the recession of 1937. It was not until WWII that spending was allowed to run without considerations for excess debt that they exited the depression. This does not mean we need a world war to exit the next depression. It can be done by having a bold vision and going for it. This could be doing everything necessary to avoid climate change. That could create enough jobs to end the depression.

I worked out that things were going to be deflationary five years ago and started clearing my huge debts then. It was a very slow process as I had debts in excess of 120% of my income. Though I have made changes and when I had some spare funds I actually spent a large sum buying a food mixer. That really enabled me to make really significant cuts to my shopping bill and that has allowed me to pay off debts even faster. Though I was able to maintain my spending as well which was great retail therapy, and allowed me to continue the debt repayments.

So even though my real income has fallen because it has not risen as much as real inflation my disposable income has increased because I have cut my normal living costs substantially, and paid off debts. So my standard of living has improved when it should have gone down only because of the changes I have made.

So what do I expect? At some point the debts will become un-payable and then there will be a cascade of defaults. These could destroy banks as credit default swaps are only as strong as the weakest link. Banks will be forced to resort to bail ins especially if property falls substantially. This might be inevitable as foreigners dump property to get much needed cash. If your neighbour has sold their home for half what you think yours is worth do you honesty expect to get full price for it?

Global trade already very weak will weaken still further and oil could get as low as $20 a barrel. This might not be for long as once the US frackers collapse under their mountains of debt then the supply of oil could dry up. The current strong dollar will make life very hard for emerging markets as money flows out back to the US. There could be significant defaults in the middle east or far east. Gold could fall even more as demand for it plummets.

The commodity producing nations are already having significant problems. Apart from the impacts on local housing there could also be forced sales as people need to make good losses in their home countries. Any debts in US dollars will have to be repaid and this will get even more expensive as the dollar has risen 20% so far this year. This will also cause the unwinding of the US$9 Trillion carry trade and this will drive up the US dollar even more, causing more losses.

Basically the debts are the problem and until the governments work out a way to pay them down orderly then there is the risk it will be disorderly and chaotic. If they resort to more QE then they might be able to keep things running a little longer but then it still only delays the inevitable. Unfortunately as we have corrupt governments I expect more fudge for a while.

Karmacat wrote: »

candlelight - not off topic at all, I'm glad the breadth of this thread enables you to ask a question like that.

+1

Frugalsod

GreyQueen wrote: »

:eek: Shhhhh!!!!!!!!! Don't give her ideas, I'm already adding an emergency pack of jelly babies to the BOB, in case I need to bribe my way up onto Mardatha's hill. I may have to get another passport, in a name off the distaff side of the family tree, the one with the Mac in it, in case I need to go native on said hill.

Actually, that might not be a very good idea, the MacInnits had a pretty rough reputation for brawling and thieving cattle, no wonder that ancestor came down to Engerland, probably had to leave home one step ahead of the thievees.

One of his descendants was nicking cars in Lunnon Town as a yoof. Only the details change <sigh>

My cousins family can trace their lineage back more than 1200 years but they had problems, in Scotland as well. A fair few were executed for leading the Jacobite rebellion and many lands were seized to become what is now part of the National Trust. Again current generations are not much better.

ivyleaf

GreyQueen wrote: »

:eek: Shhhhh!!!!!!!!! Don't give her ideas, I'm already adding an emergency pack of jelly babies to the BOB, in case I need to bribe my way up onto Mardatha's hill. I may have to get another passport, in a name off the distaff side of the family tree, the one with the Mac in it, in case I need to go native on said hill.

Actually, that might not be a very good idea, the MacInnits had a pretty rough reputation for brawling and thieving cattle, no wonder that ancestor came down to Engerland, probably had to leave home one step ahead of the thievees.

One of his descendants was nicking cars in Lunnon Town as a yoof. Only the details change <sigh>

Come to think of it, I could do that too - I remember my mother saying there were MacInnits (probably different MacInnits from GQ's) on her side of the family, waaayyyy back. And her maiden name certainly bears that out.

ETA It looks as if some of "my" MacInnits drank a lot....best have the cooking sherry ready mar, just in case I turn up on your doorstep I won't forget the jellybabies.

SpikyHedgehog

Dippypud wrote: »

You should be able to fold the seat back/s forward from inside the car to access the boot...

Ah, using that lever on the back on the seats...! Thank you, would not have occurred to me!

I needed to put my seat as far back as it will go to from the drivers seat to the back seat, then do a bit of wriggling between the front seats, but getting into the boot by pulling down one of the back seats was fine.

jk0

SpikyHedgehog wrote: »

Ah, using that lever on the back on the seats...! Thank you, would not have occurred to me!

I needed to put my seat as far back as it will go to from the drivers seat to the back seat, then do a bit of wriggling between the front seats, but getting into the boot by pulling down one of the back seats was fine.

Don't attempt if over 40 though. I think you'll do yourself a mischief.

If God wants to run me over in the short period of time I'm retrieving my BOB from the boot, bring it on.

Blue_Doggy

Frugalsod wrote: »

I have the same misgivings. The economy is not as strong as the government is making out, and the insolvency of all our financial institutions is suspect. ... I doubt that politicians have any idea what they have done.

Is this why the government are having to beg the Chinese to fund infrastructure projects here?

(Question from a non-economist.)

[Deleted User]

Parently we're McInnitts too way back but us McInnitts came out of the Isles and qualify to wear the Clan McDonald Tartan on He Who Knows side of the family, me??? I'm 101% Viking through and through, we make a good whole do me and him!!!