Preparedness for when

moneyistooshorttomention

Frugalsod wrote: »

It is nothing as complicated as that. Conspiracies are abound but most are junk.

The Chinese are trying to maintain their economy. Global trade is slumping and the Chinese property market is tanking so many ordinary Chinese people have been suckered into speculating on the Chinese bourse. Now some have added leverage with margin debt so did very well initially but that also cuts deeper when the market turns.

So there will be big losses for some and the Chinese shadow banking industry is looking insolvent again so there could be huge losses there. This could mean the Chinese Middle class being financially wiped out. This could mean risks of civil unrest. The recent devaluation of the Yuan was to boost exports nothing more. This is also causing all their neighbours to devalue which will accelerate losses on the dollar carry trade. This will harm the US banks but this is more a matter of bad lending than conspiracy.

The Chinese may be under reporting their gold but that does not discount the Chinese citizens buying the stuff as well. In India it is individuals that are the biggest buyers of gold. Remember that most people talking about a return to the gold standard have big holdings and will become rich if they can convince the rest of us it is a good idea.

The problem everywhere is too much debt and that is coming home to roost. The Chinese have created trillions of credit and so have a huge credit bubble to unwind somehow. There has been massive investment in productive capacity and this is resulting in deflation globally. This is bad for most economies as they struggle to compete to maintain sales so they cut costs mainly wages. While companies had all the bargaining power wages were kept down and profit margins increased but the problem is that their customer base has been hollowed out by wage cuts and now many companies in many countries are reporting falling sales. So for a few years they managed to mask this by buying back shares so the rising share price created the image of a normal recovery, but the fundamentals of these businesses are at their extreme and so with their now bloated balance sheets I do expect to see some big name companies go bust over the next few years.

Okays...and can we have some translations there then please, eg "bourse"....as that's a word I haven't come across before now ever (despite "swallowing a dictionary" some years back - ie when I realised my vocabulary was inadequate). Add "leverage" and "margin debt" as equalling "Can I have a translation please?".

Ahem....some of us are still struggling with the Daily Wail saying "middle class" any time they mean "middle income" and "family" any time they mean "household".....:rotfl:

sb44

I have a good stock of baked beans, tinned spuds, rice, pasta, tea, coffee, water for a starter, enough for 12 months.

Other tinned stuff to last about 3 months.

Anyone any tips for newbies as where to start re stocking up, better late than never.

Frugalsod

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

Okays...and can we have some translations there then please, eg "bourse"....as that's a word I haven't come across before now ever (despite "swallowing a dictionary" some years back - ie when I realised my vocabulary was inadequate). Add "leverage" and "margin debt" as equalling "Can I have a translation please?".

Ahem....some of us are still struggling with the Daily Wail saying "middle class" any time they mean "middle income" and "family" any time they mean "household".....:rotfl:

Bourse is a stock market.

Leverage is how much debt you have used to buy something. If you have high leverage then it multiples profits on the way up and losses on the way down. So if you have £100 a share is £100 and you have no leverage. So if the share rises 10% you make a profit of £10. But if you borrow £300 so you can buy £400 then if the share rises 10% you will gain £40 or a return of 40% on your initial £100. If you go and borrow £1000 then you can buy £1100, so when that 10% rise on the share applies you will have made £110 profit or 110% on your initial investment. This works well with rising prices but when price fall say 10% you have problems when you have leverage.

For example no debts and a 10% fall will mean your initial holdings will now only be £90 so a 10% loss. With £400 of shares 10% fall will be £40 loss or the equivalent of 40% of your money. If you borrowed £1000 and bought £1100 of shares then a 10% fall will amount to a loss of £110 so you would be wiped out. That is the impact of leverage and that is effectively what is happening in China right now.

Margin debt is the debt that you have borrowed to buy shares. So in the cases above £300 and £1000 margin debt are used.

Middle class does not always include just average earners. Doctors and MP's on £100 000 plus are also classified as middle class even though they earn substantially more than the average person.

Family and household covers broadly the same groups but a single person is a household and a family. So you singles living separately are two households but when they move in together they become one household albeit with a higher income. Statisticians will stick to these definitions but they are broadly interchangeable for most of us.

GreyQueen

Sounds like you're pretty well prepped already.

I like to have tins of protein in the form of meat (chiefly corned beef) and also tinned fish (variety of). Think of things which are able to be eaten uncooked, in case there is no energy for cooking and which can be eaten in one sitting or OK for a while out of the fridge.

I also have a few of those seasoned sachets of rice, which can be warmed through with a couple of spoonfuls of water. An expensive way of buying rice, but fast and easy if the grid was down, if you have the use of some kind of heat source.

In a modern society, as opposed to the Wild West, cash is always a very versatile prep. And if the currency collapses, scrappy gold jewellery to sell/ trade could be handy, so if you have some, hold it unless you really need to have the cash right now. HTH.

moneyistooshorttomention

Thanks for that GQ.

I do sometimes think there are two "languages" used in my society - one being a very generalist one subject to gawdknowswhat interpretation on the one hand and the one some of us use (ie very precise and meaning exactly what is stated) on the other hand....and never the twain shall meet...:cool::rotfl:

sb44

GreyQueen wrote: »

Sounds like you're pretty well prepped already.

I like to have tins of protein in the form of meat (chiefly corned beef) and also tinned fish (variety of). Think of things which are able to be eaten uncooked, in case there is no energy for cooking and which can be eaten in one sitting or OK for a while out of the fridge.

I also have a few of those seasoned sachets of rice, which can be warmed through with a couple of spoonfuls of water. An expensive way of buying rice, but fast and easy if the grid was down, if you have the use of some kind of heat source.

In a modern society, as opposed to the Wild West, cash is always a very versatile prep. And if the currency collapses, scrappy gold jewellery to sell/ trade could be handy, so if you have some, hold it unless you really need to have the cash right now. HTH.

Yes, I have tins of corned beef, corned beef hash, chicken in white sauce, tuna, stewing steak, ready made chili con carne etc, soups, enough for 3 months of all of those.

Don't forget the milk chocolate is half price this weekend at Lidl, so 17p a bar, so will get stocked up on those too.

sb44

Oh, forgot about the Spam too for extra calories.

Haven't had that for years and wasn't overly keen then but it is very calorie dense and that is what you need from what I have read.

ivyleaf

GreyQueen I keep forgetting to tell you - a couple of weeks ago we had to have one of our gutters cleared because it had a couple of plants growing in it. Guess what they turned out to be....FAT HEN! And about 5 years ago the bath and washbasin were emptying v...e...r...y slowly; a plant was seen to be sticking out of the joint in the waste pipe.....DS climbed up and investigated....FAT HEN! With roots about 2 feet long!

The odd thing is, that's the only place we've ever seen any - there's certainly none in our garden. I suppose the seeds were deposited by a bird. Probably a feral pigeon, blooming things.

GreyQueen

ivyleaf wrote: »

Grey Queen I keep forgetting to tell you - a couple of weeks ago we have to have one of our gutters cleared because it had a couple of plants growing in it. Guess what they turned out to be....FAT HEN! And about 5 years ago the bath and washbasin were emptying v...e...r...y slowly; a plant was seen to be sticking out of the joint in the waste pipe.....DS climbed up and investigated....FAT HEN! With roots about 2 feet long!

The odd thing is, that's the only place we've ever seen any - there's certainly none in our garden. I suppose the seeds were deposited by a bird. Probably a feral pigeon, blooming things.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

I know I shouldn't laugh, but that is a bit funny. Maybe birds are pooping it out. The best thing I ever saw growing in a gutter was a sugar beet.

My parents' place has a small porch built on, with its own gutter and 8 ft tall downpipe. We noticed that the water wasn't running away properly so Dad took the downpipe apart and it was filled, top to bottom, with a tight snarl of honeysuckle roots. Like a brillo pad.

One housemate of mine, back in the day, went to talk to the water company as he was concerned about something he had growing in his garden might tunnel towards the drains. He was told that particular plant wasn't a problem but the worst thing ever for invading drains and pipes is honeysuckle............

:eek: And it's so commonly grown up houses and fences, too.:eek:

oceanspirit

Thank you all for the interesting posts regarding the global economy and special thanks to 1tonsil for keeping everyone up to date with what is really happening in Greece.

As well as the beans and meat tins, have added a few tins of fruit and veg as I haven't grown my own plus some good quality nutritional supplements as there may be restricted access to healthcare so keeping as healthy as possible on a canned food diet is a high priority.

Am testing out my new solar light which is working well for bedtime reading - it came fully charged so I need to run it down so I can get an idea of how well it charges in various light conditions, bearing in mind it will more likely be used in winter.

Chimney was swept today and stove serviced so it's ready for action. Gas delivered last week for cooking (my main cooker runs on bottled gas). Need to get firewood ordered this week - have plenty of kindling and softwood but need some hardwood to keep fire going all night if the winter is harsh - I find I use less fuel if the room is kept warm 24 hours.

Whilst Kondoing, discovered hot water bottle has perished so will be buying a couple of new ones asap - won't be able to use electric blanket if power is down!

I think I have the basics covered. Living in a small home I don't have much storage space and with having mobility problems there's no chance of me bugging out so will have to take what comes if things get really bad.