Preparedness for when

[Deleted User]

daz278 wrote: »

Still no internet.

One of these for the time being, perhaps?

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/81osE8vbLKL._SX355_.jpg

moneyistooshorttomention

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

One of these for the time being, perhaps?

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/81osE8vbLKL._SX355_.jpg

I'll admit to being pretty (alright very) techno-ignorant.

So - what is it Bob?

Note to self - really, really, really must learn how to use the Ipad I only bought myself...ahem....about 3 years ago:o.

Its useful to have something to help with alternative means of accessing the Internet and the number of times an alternative would have been useful since I moved is legion.

I've now swopped router and hope that will make a difference and I will have a normal (ie reliable) connection from here on in. Am also contemplating sucking-up and paying the extra to swop my phoneline to fibre optics (as the line from the "box" is so ancient in this area that I think that might well be part of the problem).

I have got it right haven't I - ie in thinking that I can bypass those ancient phonelines most people here are using totally if I do decide to get that fibre optics?

Told ya' I'm techno-ignorant:rotfl:

[Deleted User]

moneyistooshorttomention wrote: »

I'll admit to being pretty (alright very) techno-ignorant.

So - what is it Bob?

It's a MiFi Dongle.

You bung in a Data sim, stick some credit on it (Much like a mobile phone) and turn it on.

It accesses a nearby Mobile Phone tower, and creates a WiFi hotspot around itself, allowing you to connect up to 8 wireless devices (PCs, laptops, tablets, smart phones, etc) to the internet.

Not brilliant if you do a lot of data heavy things (watch videos, TV, etc.), but ideal for data light things like emailing, posting on forums, etc.

This is the one I've got.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B00ARFVTKS?psc=1&redirect=true&ref_=oh_aui_detailpage_o05_s00

This video reviews and explains it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dnVS7LMegc

GreyQueen

Frugalsod wrote: »

I think that goods that people make might also be useful, like clothes soaps etc. During the hyperinflation in Germany the only things that were demanded were food and clothing, until they both took more than 95% of peoples money. So much for property rental income being able to help. The rental income will not be able to buy much and so they will need to sell valuables to cope.

To get through any hyperinflation it will be the food that is going to crucial. All hyper inflationary episodes have lasted at most 5 years usually shorter. So if you have enough clothes and 5 years supplies of food then you could get through unscathed, but that would be unlikely.

Though for the next few years deflation will be the problem. With global capacity at unprecedented levels and demand at lows because of income inequality then the prospects are not good. We shall see this in falling sales and eventually profits as they can no longer sack staff to boost profits. As many companies have borrowed massively to fund share buybacks and takeovers those debts will come back to haunt them as their incomes fall and the real value of those debts rise. So a rise in corporate bankruptcies is likely.

There could be wealth as much as $40 Trillion being wiped out in the US alone as the debts overwhelm the ability of businesses and people to support them. Even more globally. This will impact the rich far more than the average person. These shocks could trigger loan defaults and even bail ins.

There were other types of demand, too, coal for the winter months being one of them. You can stockpile coal, of course, should you be one of the rare households which still use it. With a good lock on the coal shed!

The Hungarian made the point that most people got through the hyperinflationary period one way or the other. Say someone had a piano that they wanted to transport out to the countryside to sell for some potatoes. They didn't have a truck, but someone else did. The truck owner didn't have any fuel, but someone else did. The three would combine resources to get that tradeable piano where it needed to go.

Some of my relations, as ex-pat Brits, spent an uncomfortable WW2 in an occupied northern European city. One of the things people were reduced to was sneaking out at night to cut branches off the street trees to burn on their fires.

Reading about the Weimar hyper-inflation, some of the most grievously affected people were those who had retired and were on a fixed income. Dignified ex-civil servants and ex-army officers were seen collapsing and dying of hunger in the streets. People with rentier income (stocks and bonds and rents) were also grievously affected and had to scrabble around for other income streams, such as renting rooms in their homes, bits and pieces of jobs, selling off goods and chattels, bartering.

The thing about a hyperinflation is that it destroys wealth. People who started off comfortably ended up destitute. You might say that if you survived, that should be good enough, but I don't think it would do to underestimate the trauma of moving from comfortably-off, or even wealthy, to subsistence living. Particularly if the opportunities to get back again are scarce-to-non-existant.

I remember reading about research done into the lives of Jewish refugees in New York. They were often professional people who had fled other countries, they were at the bottom of the pile in the new country but, with very hard work, the second and third generations in the new country were back to being doctors, dentists, lawyers and similar.

I won't pretend that I will cry crocodile tears if some very wealthy people lose out in a stock market crash, any more than I cheered for them in the boom years. But I do worry about those pension funds which are invested in the markets, including those supplying my aged parents with their private pensions, as well as, hopefully, my own.

The so-called rising tide certainly didn't lift all boats, but, when the tide goes out, lots of us will be seen to be swimming naked.

maryb

I remember reading in The Death of Money, the account of the Weimar hyperinflation, that professional types like doctors were able to restore their incomes within a couple of years after it ended.

Germany needs to learn from its history but it is learning from the wrong bit. It was the Bruning deflation of the early 30's that laid the country really low and fuelled the rise of the Nazis. Tragically, austerity policies had been eased before 1933 and support was already waning when Hitler was appointed Chancellor because they thought they could control him. The rest as they say, is history
Germany insists on imposing deflation on Southern Europe and I for one am not surprised to see radical parties springing up. So far it has been the radical Left but if Syriza falls I do wonder if Golden Dawn will see an upsurge in support

Frugalsod

maryb wrote: »

Germany insists on imposing deflation on Southern Europe and I for one am not surprised to see radical parties springing up. So far it has been the radical Left but if Syriza falls I do wonder if Golden Dawn will see an upsurge in support

Yes and that will be Merkel's Legacy, possibly all that she will be remembered for. Though there is the rise of the far right AfD in Germany itself.

It is not parties that win elections but governments that lose them. It was the loss in support for the mainstream parties in Greece that lead to the rise of Syriza and Golden Dawn. In fact in most European countries austerity is fuelling the rise of new parties, or smaller parties do better. I doubt that the SNP would have done so well if it had not been for austerity.

So it is just a matter of who falls first, depending on the election schedules. The National Front in France are leading the polls there and should they win the next set of elections we could see mass emigration of French muslims and jews out of France. Merkel is looking vulnerable in Germany, and even more so if there is another financial crisis.

moneyistooshorttomention

GreyQueen wrote: »

The thing about a hyperinflation is that it destroys wealth. People who started off comfortably ended up destitute. You might say that if you survived, that should be good enough, but I don't think it would do to underestimate the trauma of moving from comfortably-off, or even wealthy, to subsistence living. Particularly if the opportunities to get back again are scarce-to-non-existant.


I won't pretend that I will cry crocodile tears if some very wealthy people lose out in a stock market crash, any more than I cheered for them in the boom years. But I do worry about those pension funds which are invested in the markets, including those supplying my aged parents with their private pensions, as well as, hopefully, my own.

That is precisely the point I have made sometimes - ie how people could cope (would they even try to cope?) with a transition from "Can Manage" to "Not Even Sure They Can Eat". There is an enormous gap from the hyper-rich to the wealthy. Then another gap from the Wealthy to the "Can Manage".

The gap isn't that big between "Can Manage" and "Not Even Sure They Can Eat". I think many of us are in the "Can Manage" category (well...I personally will be back to that when I reach my revised SPA later this year at last - but its the "Not Even Sure etc" category I'm in at moment and savings buoying me up to "manage") and that few thousand £s a year difference makes a huge difference between "living" and "surviving". Those in the "living" (but only by a few thousand £ pa) category are probably the most fearful of being thrown into the "surviving" category due to nothing to do with them personally. The psychological difficulties will be enormous and should not be under-estimated. If someone is a "hard-faced" type of person or prepared to become "hard" that might be one thing - but if they aren't and aren't respectively...then:eek:

That's the thing - how do you stay normal (ie a relatively gentle decent person) and stay fed etc if Society's circumstances got that bad and dragged you down too?

....and...yep...re the work pension situation for many and I've long since lost count of how many times I think "The Civil Service was hell-on-earth to work for in many ways that outsiders wouldn't appreciate - but thankgawd at the end of it was a safe job pension".....because I would actually be pretty darn worried if my job pension was either a private one or non-existent (bar a bit of Serps pension). I'd actually be rather concerned if mine was a local government pension too - but I hadn't managed to get my hands on it and safely retire too. When I watch how Local Government funds are mismanaged and, latterly, some of the priorities set by local govt. bodies in some parts of Britain :shocked: "I yam gobsmacked" and would worry if I worked for them.

greenbee

Bedsit_Bob wrote: »

It's a MiFi Dongle.

You bung in a Data sim, stick some credit on it (Much like a mobile phone) and turn it on.

It accesses a nearby Mobile Phone tower, and creates a WiFi hotspot around itself, allowing you to connect up to 8 wireless devices (PCs, laptops, tablets, smart phones, etc) to the internet.

Not that useful in rural areas... The one thing worse that the broadband is the mobile signal... :cool:

Frugalsod

GreyQueen wrote: »

I won't pretend that I will cry crocodile tears if some very wealthy people lose out in a stock market crash, any more than I cheered for them in the boom years. But I do worry about those pension funds which are invested in the markets, including those supplying my aged parents with their private pensions, as well as, hopefully, my own.

I also will shed no tears for the very rich, but pensions are already being destroyed by the governments zero interest policy.

For years they averaged an 8% return that paid pensions and allowed them to grow. With very low interest rates they were not collecting enough to cover the expected outcomes. So while this was evident in the endowment mortgage scandal where people had to increase significantly their insurance contribution to avoid a shortfall this is masked in the pensions as they only become apparent when you retire. So if you expected a retirement income of £20 000 a year you might find that you will get significantly less. So if you wanted to retire with £20 000 a year your monthly contributions should have been increased substantially already. Most only discover this when they get an annuity quote, and it is too late.

As for the pension losses with the next financial crisis. They are pretty much baked in now. It is not as if you can move the money somewhere safer. Any stock market crash will impact those saving for a pension but they will also gain as they will be able to buy far more stocks with their monthly contribution once prices have reset. Shame about their accumulated pot but c'est la vie.

A collapse in bond prices will also allow those with funds to buy a better pension as rates will rise. Though their pension pot might be decimated in the process so may see little benefit.

Those with buy to let properties as their pension may fare no better. Property values will plummet as mortgages will be more expensive and first time buyers could be missing as their deposits could be bailed-in in a banking crisis.

GreyQueen wrote: »

The so-called rising tide certainly didn't lift all boats, but, when the tide goes out, lots of us will be seen to be swimming naked.

Very true, but I suspect that the quote also hides the fact that some seem to do so much better than a simple rising tide would allow. A rising tide would benefit all reasonably evenly, but that is not what happens in reality.

moneyistooshorttomention

This is one of the points that concerns me re if bail-ins happened - ie there will be people with "house equity money" sitting in savings at the time if that happened. Whether it be down to FTB'ers with their deposit savings in the banks/etc or those "moving up ladder" and they had got house equity money sitting in banks/etc whilst they were en route to their next house (eg possibly living in rented housing whilst having sold House 1 and waiting for House 2 to be available to buy).

One reason I've always thought there would be No Way Hosea I would have my house equity money sitting banked somewhere whilst I looked for next-house-to-buy.

If it came to it - then I could see the Housing Market grinding to a halt one way or another. Add together those refusing to rent whilst they "moved up", those refusing to downsize as planned (as at least money tied-up in bricks and mortar cant get stolen by any bail-in), etc, etc.

It looks entirely possible that IF it came to it then many people would find themselves stuck living exactly where they are - no matter how unsuitable.