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Preparedness for when

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  • Frugalsod
    Frugalsod Posts: 2,966 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    I do tend to agree there, ie re the system "killing itself". I sometimes wonder how I would manage if I had to "start over" again.

    Things didn't go according to plan as it was, but that was basically because I never found the man I wanted to marry and life IS much harder financially when single.

    However, I wouldn't be that sure it would go "according to plan" these days even if I did get married, ie two of us to pay for everything. In fact, given the available options, then for someone like myself (ie whose brain doesn't turn in the direction of the type of thing that will be well-paid, eg no maths skills at all for instance) then I think there's at least a 50/50 chance I would have no option but to drop out basically (despite being a fairly conventional person) and try and get together with likeminded others in a "back to the land" type commune. That looks a good deal like hard physical work (ie not my type of work then:rotfl:) but, given the other options on the table, I tend to think it would have been the "lesser of two evils".

    Of course, if I'd been born beautiful (rather than just attractive) and with less idealism as to who to marry, then there would be Eternal Option of "marry money" (but then I had that option anyway and turned it down, courtesy of the idealism and a good dose of commonsense...:cool:).

    I honestly don't know realistically what reasonable options there are for younger people these days...no wonder so many of them have unrealistic dreams of being "discovered for a Life of Fame and Fortune".:cool:
    I do feel a reset is coming and is almost guaranteed with the way TPTB are currently running things. It might be many years before things erupt and eventually change. Look at Japan 25 years of stop-start depression and they are still not through it. They have a significant advantage over most nations in that they are remarkably homogenous, so can all work together for a common goal. Most European nations are very mixed and so 25 years of stagnation will result in riots and blood shed some way along the path.

    The good news is that the elites suffer far more than the average person. They might actually all be killed as a result of a reset. The French and Russian revolutions basically wiped out much of the nobility and elites. That could happen here if things continue to be so one sided. It is why the elites need to be worried. Though at the moment I think most are too arrogant to appreciate the nooses that they are constructing for themselves. It is like they see themselves as the lords of the manor and that the rest of us are expected to live below stairs like Downton Abbey. Try telling a generation brought up on Facebook and Twitter that they will never have much of a future. How many youngsters of today will never own a home unless they inherit it?

    In a reset the debts will be wiped out the wealth of the rentiers will be wiped out and though things might be tough for a while there will be significant prospects for recovery. If we have a reset of our banking system will I suffer much? Personally not a lot. While I might find my bank balance disappearing I will not be that much worse off as I will still have my cash balances and virtually everything else I need, like beds cookware etc. So my losses will be less than a thousand pounds but that is it. Someone super rich would probably have their bank balances seized bar the same as everyone else. Their property would be come worth half its current value. Their debts would remain constant. End result bankruptcy. So from being a billionaire to bankrupt in a reset. Imagine how many MP's would be wiped out in a reset as well?

    Life will not be so different after a financial reset. Unless of course you have a lot of money or debt.
    It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.
  • Frugalsod
    Frugalsod Posts: 2,966 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    Some interesting news on Zerohedge about Greece. It looks like common sense has finally appeared in the EU.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-01/tide-turning-obama-expresses-sympathy-greece-lazard-says-50-greek-haircut-reasonable
    Of course, Germany's position has been known for a long time because despite all the posturing, Germany's interest are quite aligned with those of the ECB: because while German politicians can posture all they want about the specter of hyperinflation due to money printing, they know full well that without the ECB backstop, not only is the Deutsche Mark coming back with a bang, but Deutsche Bank, perhaps the world's TBTF bank, would promptly topple over in the process crushing the Germany economy. Which is why when it comes to Greece, Merkel's interest are identically aligned with those of the ECB, which in turn are dictated by Goldman and the rest of the banking cartel as well as the BIS/MIT diaspora.
    What this translates as is that they are petrified of a eurozone break up. If Greece is forced to exit then there could be more exits and then a break up. For Germany a return to the Deutschmark will be expensive. The fact that the periphery were in the Euro kept its value down. Outside a euro the Deutschmark would be considerably higher. Think of it as a big version the impact when Switzerland ended the currency peg. A 40% revaluation overnight that wiped out many currency brokers. This will impact Germanys exporters. There will also be ramifications about the massive losses that Deutsche Bank might face on its derivatives and so destroy Germanys economy and with the new bail-in rules. Imagine the anger as big companies have their bank balances stolen to recapitalise the banks. No government could ever hope to get elected with that as their record.
    It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.
  • moneyistooshorttomention
    moneyistooshorttomention Posts: 17,940 Forumite
    edited 2 February 2015 at 8:33AM
    It's funny you should mention that, because I have just got back from a very cold weekend's camping. It was below zero at night and the only time I was properly warm was when I was in my bed. The wind was howling round and the poor dog was so cold he got in between my OH and me and we covered him completely in blankets. He has his own bed and blankets, but it wasn't enough.

    We cooked over a campfire and came home stinking of wood smoke, but it was great fun. Yesterday we did a workshop on knife sharpening and then carved some spoons, and today, I did archery for the first time since I was a Girl Guide, which is far longer than I care to remember. Despite the cold, it was good fun.


    :eek::eek: Rather you than me. MUCH rather you than me:rotfl::rotfl:. Makes mental note that my definition of "severe hardship" is some peoples definition of "fun":rotfl:.

    FRUGALSOD - I gather that some of the superrich are already buying up land for themselves in the safer parts of the world. Apparently safety order goes Iceland (no thanks = too cold), then Denmark (yay, I like Denmark and would be fine there personally, but its rather flat...see "Global warming/seas rising") and then New Zealand comes third. Cue = some of them are buying places in New Zealand. I can quite see why = attractive, enviably low population levels. So physically speaking and re their home, then I imagine many of the super-rich will be quite safe thank you if SHTF...but I cant see how they would hold onto their obscenely high levels of wealth somewhere safe I have to admit and I'm not sure they've thought that through.

    Cynics thought for the day being = The one thing we have in common with the super-rich is "Where on earth do you put your money to keep it safe?" At the ordinary person in the street level I spent years of not daring to have much in the way of savings in case I became unemployed again (and it got snatched by the DWP) and the second I'm safe from that (courtesy of being retired) then there's nowhere safe to put it that it wont be steadily eroded by virtually non-existent interest rates on it and there is now the fear of a bank bail-in.

    To coin a phrase = well I could add to the Chinese curse of "May you live in interesting times", I could add another one of "May you have a long life". Reason being that anyone born in more Normal Times may well not regard a long life as desirable, as it gives a lot more opportunity for Society to worsen and having more years of being on the receiving end of worse than Normal Times.
  • ivyleaf
    ivyleaf Posts: 6,431 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts
    Bedsit_Bob wrote: »
    Crewing a submarine, were they? :D

    :D Glad to see that the cold weather hasn't slowed down your quick-fire sense of humour, Bob.
  • Funny you should mention the weather.

    Despite most of the rest of the village being clear, there's still snow in my street. :(
  • ivyleaf
    ivyleaf Posts: 6,431 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts
    Oh, now that's just not fair for you :(

    We haven't had any where I am, apart from a very brief shower of wet snow on Saturday morning.
  • Frugalsod
    Frugalsod Posts: 2,966 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    :eek::eek: Rather you than me. MUCH rather you than me:rotfl::rotfl:. Makes mental note that my definition of "severe hardship" is some peoples definition of "fun":rotfl:.
    I would think that could be fun in short doses.
    FRUGALSOD - I gather that some of the superrich are already buying up land for themselves in the safer parts of the world. Apparently safety order goes Iceland (no thanks = too cold), then Denmark (yay, I like Denmark and would be fine there personally, but its rather flat...see "Global warming/seas rising") and then New Zealand comes third. Cue = some of them are buying places in New Zealand. I can quite see why = attractive, enviably low population levels. So physically speaking and re their home, then I imagine many of the super-rich will be quite safe thank you if SHTF...but I cant see how they would hold onto their obscenely high levels of wealth somewhere safe I have to admit and I'm not sure they've thought that through.
    If a new government came in and had the gumption they would not last long. Remember Russia sent out assassination squads all over the world. Imagine what they could do now with drones and guided weapons. So that isolated farm in New Zealand could be easily destroyed along with all its inhabitants, and with bunker buster bombs few would ever be able to challenge their loss of wealth.
    Cynics thought for the day being = The one thing we have in common with the super-rich is "Where on earth do you put your money to keep it safe?" At the ordinary person in the street level I spent years of not daring to have much in the way of savings in case I became unemployed again (and it got snatched by the DWP) and the second I'm safe from that (courtesy of being retired) then there's nowhere safe to put it that it wont be steadily eroded by virtually non-existent interest rates on it and there is now the fear of a bank bail-in.
    For most people they have such small savings that they are not really at risk of losing much. If they hit only accounts above the deposit protection limit then few individuals would be impacted. It will be those that have the proceeds of a sale of a property that will be hit hard. If there were a big set of losses on derivatives then even the deposit protection limit could too high to recapitalise the banks fully.

    The problem is that the banking system is not safe and even trying to get any return is a problem for everyone.

    I do think that if you have been unemployed that you would be very careful not to have too many savings otherwise you lose it if you had to claim again. The same would apply if they got older and retired. They would still come up against the capital limits for other benefits like housing benefits.
    To coin a phrase = well I could add to the Chinese curse of "May you live in interesting times", I could add another one of "May you have a long life". Reason being that anyone born in more Normal Times may well not regard a long life as desirable, as it gives a lot more opportunity for Society to worsen and having more years of being on the receiving end of worse than Normal Times.
    Personally I hope to live a long life and not being rich enough to worry about bail-ins or bank collapses but still be comfortable.
    It's really easy to default to cynicism these days, since you are almost always certain to be right.
  • GreyQueen
    GreyQueen Posts: 13,008 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    :) I think the Chinese also have a saying More wealth, less health, meaning that you can chase too hard after money and wreck your body doing it, and die before your time.

    After all, we're all ashes or worm-food in the fullness of time.

    I have poor health and no wealth to speak of, the latter being a consequence of the former but, if given a choice, I'd have health any day.

    I've been to NZ twice and travelled all over. If the refugee rich think it's all beer and skittles over there, I suggest they are pretty ignorant. Big chunks of the South Island (and the south is colder and wetter, being nearer the south pole) are sparsely inhabited.

    And for very good reasons due to severely inclemant weather, precipitious landscapes (glaciers and fjords) and the pestilential NZ black fly, as maddening as the Scottish midge. People get lost there, lost as in never seen again despite long searches. I've sat on a catamaran in the mouth of one of those fjords whilst the captain pointed out there was nothing but ocean between us and Australia. That part of the country has rainfall numbered in the tens of meters per annum.

    NZ is also part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, with a lot of volcanic activity, risk of earthquakes, and risk of tsunami. They have spectacular storms, even in the nicer seasons. I experienced one which was shoving trucks off roads and which picked up mature pines like matchsticks and threw them, point down, through people's roofs, spearing the house like a nibble on a cocktail stick.

    The country also has a slew of social problems with a disaffected minority ethnic population and a lot of drugs and gangland activity in the cities and towns.

    Ownership of many parts of the country is in litigation between the Maori tribes and the state government/ private individuals. Richie Richman might end up owning something which is regarded by some tribe (in the modern world, this might mean several thousand individuals) as part of its ancestral lands, and which they'd been keen to take back into their control, should civil society break down.
    Every increased possession loads us with a new weariness.
    John Ruskin
    Veni, vidi, eradici
    (I came, I saw, I kondo'd)
  • jk0
    jk0 Posts: 3,479 Forumite
    Eighth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Not sure if anyone else posted/viewed this, but I think Varoufakis is a very interesting and intelligent man:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=1422579428&v=BiIO4YciewU&x-yt-cl=85114404#t=423
  • daz378
    daz378 Posts: 1,051 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 500 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    just a reminder tonight uk channel 5 10,000 b.c . can a group of 20 people survive in a bulgarian forrest with only stone age tools and know how?
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