Preparedness for when

ivyleaf

Oh dear softstuff so sorry it looks as if things aren't going to work out as you'd hoped x

mardatha

The weather forums getting quite excited about this week's storms..100mph on some charts for the western isles. This area is 60-70mph and snow mixed with sleet. I'm sorting out my candles and headtorches, and sorted out the meals for the rest of the week to use up the meat in the freezer.

Softstuff

Thanks Ivyleaf.... it seems though there might be an exciting change/opportunity. Quite unexpected and being mysterious since I don't want to jinx it! Will update soon.

moneyistooshorttomention

Fingers crossed for you Softstuff.

COOLTRIKERCHICK

I heard that Europe are going to some quantative easing due to the delflation in the Euro Zone... what do you think ??? and what type of potential backlash will this have for us and overseas ( non Europe) trade??

[Deleted User]

Funnily enough our w8rose didn't have any wholemeal flour this morning either, and only 3 bags of plain white, two of which are now in my kitchen to see us through the next few weeks, specially if we get some rough weather as looks likely.

Frugalsod

COOLTRIKERCHICK wrote: »

I heard that Europe are going to some quantative easing due to the delflation in the Euro Zone... what do you think ??? and what type of potential backlash will this have for us and overseas ( non Europe) trade??

It all depends if they can get Germany to accept it. That is not clear yet.

The problem is that deflation is the natural antidote to excessive credit and debt and we still have not addressed that. In fact TPTB are creating even more debt. The reason that almost no government will address this problem is that they are "owned" by the super rich and the banks. Deflation will make hit the super rich very hard and since they bank roll most political parties then politicians will rig policies that suit their backers. It was the stock market crash of 1929 that lowered inequality most in the US.

No government economic model counted debts within them which was why none saw this crisis coming. They treated it as an accounting process. One persons debt was another persons asset. Which is untrue because most debt is created out of nothing. So all they have done is give banks unlimited power to hold countries to ransom. The fact that Germany is playing hardball with Greece is because its banks have massive potential losses all across Europe.

France is in a worse state because its banks have lent hundreds of billions to the EU periphery. So if those debts were to become worthless then the entire French banking system would collapse taking France with it. That would immediately hit Germany and the so called strong economy of Europe would be seen to be borderline insolvent. Deutsche Bank is probably insolvent already but only because they have not been forced to write down the value of bonds across the board. Their derivative portfolio is also a massive time bomb waiting to destroy Germany.

Globally credit has increased substantially since 2007. The real problems are not the governments spending policies but the fact that they have to bail out banks who in many cases whose debt problems are larger than the countries that they are relying on to bail them out. Ireland had a budget surplus prior to the banking crisis. The German banks were facing loses of €119 billion in Ireland which was why they demanded that Ireland guarantee all unsecured debts. Ireland is still not out of the woods and another bailout is inevitable eventually.

Spain's fiscal problems also started with the financial crisis. They had a bigger property bubble than most and so have impaired their banks considerably.

All that QE will do is to extend and pretend the problem until it simply fails to work. You only have to see the impact of each QE in the US to see that each time more and more debt is required to goose the economy a little bit more. Japan has been doing it for years all to avoid the real and significant problems within their banks. It will have minimal impacts on the economy and will eventually need something else. Japan now has wiped out its middle class and they now no longer can afford to save and wages are falling still.

If the ECB does go ahead then you could expect some more stability for a while. How long that will last is anyones guess. Asset bubbles are hard to predict as to when they will burst and can always be impacted by government policy. Though eventually even a help to buy scheme is not enough to prop up the property bubbles everywhere. Basic accounting fundamentals become overwhelming and people are forced to sell. That creates a panic and bigger losses are guaranteed. How long it will last is anyones guess. The politicians just want it to carry on until they are reelected. Then when it explodes they can use it to impose even more austerity which actually makes the situation worse but because most economists are neo-classical/monetarists they do not see that as a problem as it keeps debts from being written off.

For example the UK has done better than expected because of all the hot money flowing into the country buying property which kept the banks looking solvent, and created jobs building flats that will remain empty. Over the last few years there has been Greeks, Italians, Russians, Malaysian and even Chinese buyers all trying to avoid problems back home and hide money in London property. This will not last forever as it is pricing locals out of a home, and that will either lead to a surge in support for an anti immigrant party or force many to look elsewhere for homes and work. London is already seeing a massive brain drain out of the city because of house prices. That will ultimately impact the economy and taxes that the government raises.

Overseas trade is already in the doldrums and you can see that in the Baltic Index which is an index that measures the cost of shipping containers of goods. They are back down to levels at the depth of the global recession in 2009. Countries that are big commodities exporters will be hit hard. First by the collapse in trade and then jobs and ultimately the property bubble will implode. Australia and Canada are particularly vulnerable. Some parts of Canada are already seeing a collapse in the property bubbles especially in oil towns, because of layoffs caused by the low oil price.

So what it really does is give us preppers more time to build cash balances, clear debts, cut your overheads and stock pile food and fuel etc. It might only be another year but by then I will be debt free and solvent, and well prepped.

Frugalsod

MrsLurcherwalker wrote: »

Funnily enough our w8rose didn't have any wholemeal flour this morning either, and only 3 bags of plain white, two of which are now in my kitchen to see us through the next few weeks, specially if we get some rough weather as looks likely.

I suspect that people are thinking that the weather might snow them in and so are stockpiling flour for bread.

Butterfly_Brain

Off to get a couple of 25 kg bags of coal on Saturday just to keep the stocks up.
We have no snow forecast where I am but I think we may get it all in February

GreyQueen

:eek: Look at this!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/07/skydivers-survive-new-zealand-plane-crash-after-parachuting-to-safety

I've sky-dived over Lake Taupo with this outfit, big fun. After the chute deployed, you are dangling with the top of your head just below the chin of your jump-master, as the pro-skydivers are called. It's peaceful and conversation is easy.

GQ Err, is a problem that we're out of the Lake?
JM (trust me to get the wacky one with the ginger dreadlocks) Not yet........:rotfl:

Normally you come down not too far from the Lake, which is the biggest chunk of freshwater in the Southern Hemisphere (flooded caldera of a mega volcano) but part of your descent is over the water.

So glad that no one was hurt in this accident. Sky-diving is big fun and I have irrefutable proof that the earth is round as you can see the curvature of the earth very nicely 12,000 feet above Lake Taupo. Then you throw yourself face-first into the planet.

When you land they give you beer - it's a helluva way of spending £80 for a small 'free' beer.