Investing in Libya, Iraq etc through ISA?

bankhater_1965

jamespearson wrote: »

Just dubious on China, their steel usage per person is pretty much the same as when it peaked in US, Japan, Euro after war. One hears terrible stories of there being office space of 5 sq feet for each Chinese. That's just a personal view. Anyway, Iraq and Libya are essentially oil plays so exposed to China, US, Euro, QE, War with Iran. A growing China woudl be great news for both countries. Would buy the telco companies, which have double digit growth. Likewise in Libya would buy the banks, telcos, oil service companies etc. I have a little exposure to the London exchanges for myself, Falkland and Chariot are the main two. I'd rather put money into countries that have crashed and are on recovery rather than those that are still going through that process. Likewise i'll buy Greek stocks 6 months after default...

buy youself a manopoly board !

JoeCrystal

Hmm... what about other African countries like South Africa or Nigeria?

Cheers

Joe

datostar

If there were a fund investing in Russian arms manufacturers and export this would be a good indirect means of of investing in these countries' economies as a good deal of their GDP is spent on these products.

Reaper

JoeCrystal wrote: »

Hmm... what about other African countries like South Africa or Nigeria?

There is a way to invest very easily in sub-Saharan Africa - buy Lonrho shares which have a UK listing making them simple to buy - I did as it is a part of the world I want to be in for the long term and they have their fingers in a lot of pies.

However it's a gamble. I'm not keen on the top guy's renumeration ("the unaccaeptable face of capitalism") and I think their airline ambitions are mad.

JoeCrystal

Well, I am also interested in investing in Africa as long term play. I am seriously considering building a portfolio based on Africa in the future but currently, I am focusing on my own sustainable portfolio. For now though, I am investing monthly into Neptune Africa Fund. Neptune Africa Fund, it is another way to invest in sub-Saharan Africa though for liquidity purpose, at least 50% is in South African equities.

Cheers

Joe

bigadaj

I would disagree about lonrhos airline ambitions being crazy.

I'm currently on a mine in Ghana, which ironically used to be owned by lonrho, and this is going to be a good growth area across much of Africa.

Road development is so poor, an railways have been run down that flying is the only option. Ghana had the highest growth are in the world last year, and a Growing middle class is flying a lot in many countries, there is over 159 million people in Nigeria alone. Coupe, this with low costs and wages and the ability to drive a low cost airline option is very doable.

The one caution is that this is a big punt on commodities, as this is growing the majority of growth throughout Africa. If commodity prices stay high then I think it will do extremely well, if commodity prices collapse then, no, it won't work.

sabretoothtigger

They are also setting up small airlines in west australia with commodity trade strong in both countries its justified to some extent.
If you consider how vast and terrible to encounter on a regular basis any alternative transport in those countries would be otherwise

Rolls Royce has been a good bet for a long while from this expanding demand for quality engines. Not just transport but electricity generation and turbines, all these previously middle of nowhere places that need high amounts of electricity, they just cant cope without new builds. Again a quality uk company will benefit I think, engineering is a great sector to capture as its a genuine uk asset

jamespearson

srcandas wrote: »

James you've covered most of the world. Always interesting to hear from someone who thinks outside the box. Do you have any thoughts on South America and Mexico? The latter seems to have some potential.

:beer:

I'd keep away from South America- Brazil is over-heating, and essentially a pure commodity play, Argentina has serious problems with governance, though I woudl consider their bonds which yield 20%, I hear, though not till the Euro, US, Japan stuff plays out. Mexico is right next to the US and dependant on it so I would be very cautious. However, if you feel you have an amazing company.....


I'd keep away from Japan. Yes, Honda and Toyota are great companies selling fairly cheap. Yes, lots of short-sellers have lost their shirt shorting Japanese bonds, however... I just would not want to invest in a country which has an excess of every problem plaguing the west... For me it is Charlie Munger's 'Too Hard'- ie I just don't know, so why bother? Like RIM and Nokia...

Libya and Iraq are pure commodity plays- but they are at a very early stage of development. The danger with buying Iraq now is a potential war between Iran and the West. That woudl affect their stockmarket and provide a good time to buy. I'm fairly convinced on Libya, tho. Syria doesn't really have enough assets to tempt me when the war is over... I'd be very interested in Myanmar in 2015 and Zimbabwe when Mugabe is gone, although I suspect that the reason Zimbabwe was so rich was that the farms were well run, which may never happen again. However, Myanmar was richest country in Asia till 1962 and is right next to China. Zimbabwe is right next to SA. On the Zim exchange there used to be BAT and Barclays, not sure if still there.

jamespearson

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I think it was DB who issued Iraq tracker. Certainly their was Kuwait and I figured they also might benefit but both were imprecise




I like Japan. Its the currency and the government that has the problems, lots of the companies are good world performers. Domestically Im not sure about their business but as an exporter and holder of high tech and engineering they seem fine and the price has fallen for decades.

Its become tradition to avoid Japan for the west, their own people are greater holders of both their own shares and debt but its the shares that should outperform in that its less internally focused making the equity rise relatively. I dont think Japan is expensive

I like the look of Genel. I have asked them to send me some info. Benefits at first glance: it haS 83 pc of market cap lying in cash on the balance sheet. However, the sort of stuff I invest in has a outside possibility of increasing by 100x within a short time frame. This stock does not have that possibility. It has a possibility, if it is truly the next Tullow, of increasing by 7x. It's a 'free lottery ticket', though I would not say it is as good as some of my other stocks, like FXEN, VRNG, Chariot, Falkland, VGZ, USEG. Most of these are one in ten chances of increasing by 1 in 100... I like this possibility of expolsive growth. Thanks for sharing these ideas, Sabre, any others that you think are worth looking at? I'm interested in explosive growth, preferably within a few months... EG is Vrng beat Google the company coudl be transformed from 30m USD market cap to 10bn USD.