Quarter 2 GDP... are we still in recession

homelessskilledworker

Hope not.

Head on the block time:)


That is quarter two now just finished, we should get the GDP figures early next month.

I am going for -0.5%

And please Guys before you start sounding off, that number is what I suspect it COULD be and not what I want it to be.

homelessskilledworker

I expect quite a few postive number numbers here today from those who are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
There has been a lot of Bullish talk on this board about jobs, people spending etc etc

Generali

I expect you're about right. The 2(?) extra bank holidays remove about 3% of the quarter's working days alone.

abaxas

It comes to something when Asda trying to sell off their garden range in July..

Nice portable BBQ reduced from £10 to £5. We already have one, but was almost tempted. However I did buy some self light charcoal, good to keep in stock.

We are just having the recession we decided to delay.

homelessskilledworker

abaxas wrote: »

It comes to something when Asda trying to sell off their garden range in July..

Nice portable BBQ reduced from £10 to £5. We already have one, but was almost tempted. However I did buy some self light charcoal, good to keep in stock.

We are just having the recession we decided to delay.

Totally agree, the financial crisis and recession after 2007 was supposed to be the first ever "Nice recession" where for now we threw money at it so we never felt any real pain and then eventually the growth later would balance everything up

But guess what.. NO GROWTH.

I have half a dozen nemesis on here:), who follow ALL my posts with contradition and just plain abuse, but I bet hardly one of them will now have the nerve to say what they predict for the GDP figures.
This board is supposed to be an insightfull board that hopefully can give us maybe an idea of whats happening before it does, why post on here otherwise.

Come on uber bulls, some of you have been telling us all how great it really is now, give us a number:)
Or are you just going to keep quite with your fingers crossed and wait for the good or bad news to come out and then start your abuse or say how wrong the data is.

chewmylegoff

thought it was your view that we've been in recession since 2008 and that QE has just been covering it all up, so surely it's irrelevant whether the number is positive or negative as you'll say that we're in recession either way?

chewmylegoff

p.s. i predict that the GDP estimate will be wrong and will require two separate revisions. i expect it to be between 0 and -1%.

chewmylegoff

abaxas wrote: »

It comes to something when Asda trying to sell off their garden range in July..

Nice portable BBQ reduced from £10 to £5. We already have one, but was almost tempted. However I did buy some self light charcoal, good to keep in stock.

We are just having the recession we decided to delay.

i also predict that abaxas' charcoal purchase will be considered by mr ree to be a sign of rock solid consumer confidence.

System

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Come on uber bulls, some of you have been telling us all how great it really is now, give us a number:)

Who are you talking about? MrRee and Sibley?

mr_fishbulb

Generali wrote: »

I expect you're about right. The 2(?) extra bank holidays remove about 3% of the quarter's working days alone.

They like to bang on about the bank holidays, but in Q1 they seemed to keep schtum about the leap year.

homelessskilledworker

chewmylegoff wrote: »

thought it was your view that we've been in recession since 2008 and that QE has just been covering it all up, so surely it's irrelevant whether the number is positive or negative as you'll say that we're in recession either way?

Actually that is more a less what I am saying, how clever of you:)

Now who's point are you trying to make, mine or yours(whatever that is).

The figures that we have had are whatever they happen to be PLUS the effect of QE. Now I don't what world you live in but the not having the QE would have made the figures even worse, whats your feelings on the subject?

I say we probably have one more stab at QE at say £200 billion max, if we don't get growth then, we are in big trouble.

And plus this is not even taking the euro crisis into consideration.

For the record, early last year I said we would go into double dip with worse to come, that prediction is well on target, regretably.