In depth look at the housing market

homelessskilledworker

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/06/the-uk-economy-an-in-depth-look-at-the-housing-market/


Good read no matter if you are bull or bear

moneyinmypocket

There is no bubble - these are the prices houses are worth

moneyinmypocket

It's supply and demand

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Good read no matter if you are bull or bear

"Good" may be stretching it a bit....

-It's a rehashing of the Moneyweek arguments.

-The original article on the "Kelpie Capital" blog is titled "The Bear Case", and actually credits Moneyweek for much of the information.

-The Demographic data is incorrect.

-There is no mention whatsoever of the critical housing shortage

In fact, the entire article is just bear spin.

Which is what you'd expect, given the original title was "The Bear Case".

joe_blotts

Very interesting. Thankyou and quite succinct in places:

The 2000s were a decade of growth for the UK, but that growth was an illusion. It was not borne out of productivity gains or of diligent savings but instead out of rising debt levels. Our seeming prosperity was, and remains, false

and a total debt to gdp of 950%. This can't end well.

homelessskilledworker

joe_blotts wrote: »

Very interesting. Thankyou and quite succinct in places:

The 2000s were a decade of growth for the UK, but that growth was an illusion. It was not borne out of productivity gains or of diligent savings but instead out of rising debt levels. Our seeming prosperity was, and remains, false

and a total debt to gdp of 950%. This can't end well.

Some of the uber bulls on here crack me up, they "accuse" the report of being bearish rather than seeing it for what it is, just data on the economy that happens to be nearly all bearish.
It's like getting p***ed of with John Humphreys for broacasting the negitive GDP figred to the nation.

That data IS OUR ECONOMY, but even I found parts which concern me as a bear with a stash, but nothing I am going to share on here though:)

joe_blotts

I'm neither a bear or a bull though I do lean towards a more pessimistic view of the UK economy but that is borne out by the evidence. I can't see a housing boom simply for the reason of affordability, Young people can't afford houses now, 6x 7x income is impossible for most, so unless there's a wage spiral where will the fuel come from for a boom? I don't expect them to dramatically crash though either.

People that are convinced of a boom or a crash must have some kind of bias as who can see the future? Nobody, so most of it is just wishful thinking perhaps. Home owners hoping for a boom and potential FTBers hoping for a crash and searching for evidence to support their bias. I was lucky enough to inherit a house and as I never plan on moving I don't care what it's price on paper is. I have no vested interst in which way they go. It's interesting though.

Whats a bear with a stash?

moneyinmypocket

Foxy is a fox

brit1234

moneyinmypocket wrote: »

There is no bubble - these are the prices houses are worth

So nothing about massive easy credit expansion in a race for banks to get as much of the mortgage market as possible and the massive fraud as well?

If it is all about supply and demand and houses are in short supply then why are prices falling?

[Deleted User]

a couple of things get me about the current housing market(having paid my mortgage off i`m a detatched viewer),we have seen prices bump along the bottom for 4 years now,yet few mention the 5% growth we could have expected in each of those years,and this is despite the fact that we have an acknowledged shortage of property
prices should perhaps have rocketed since 2008

Thrugelmir

woodbine wrote: »

prices should perhaps have rocketed since 2008

Without debt there can be no growth. As as a nation the saving ratio continues to fall. So where's the funding going to come from?

Shortage of many things. Human nature is one that adapts to circumstances though.