to sell my fund or not to sell my fund that is the question

blinko

to sell my fund or not to sell my fund that is the question ?

one of my funds is down 5% from its original capital now that was my limit, but when it rises it rise :0 so do i sell out no and buy in later or stick it out till the end of the week by the way the fund is commodities !

Reaper

Nobody can say what commodities will do in the future, but if you made a rule you should stick to it, otherwise you are making an emotional rather than rational choice.

Furthermore unless you bought it recently you should be showing a decent profit even with the recent drop.

deemy2004

As reaper above stop losses are there to stop losses. THOUGH 5% is pretty small ?? On investment positions I usually allow some 25% movement against me before I call it a day sometimes more. 5% on a volatile fund or stock is pretty much intra-day noise.


Whats the trend like ? Maybe you bought on the crest of a wave and are now going into the next corrective trough, as long its making higher peaks and lows it is likely to at least assault on the previous peak before showing signs of a trend change.

My personal take on commodities overall is that they are likely to move sideways to down over the next 6 months or so i.e. inverse to to the dollar.

CRB Index - Monthly


CRB Daily

I mean they have had a pretty good 5 to 3 year bull run and are due a correction.. The chart suggests a CRB move from 325 peak earlier in march, to around 260 which would represent a correction of 20%, though a fund would likely move twice that,as they tend to overextend by a factor in either direction.

blinko

yeah i have decided to sell the commodities as i think the sector is overpriced anyway, and i just looked at my india fund and that has taken a dive aswell the only fund i think i shall remain with is my fidelity special situations although i dont realy see anything postiive happening in the ftse until summer/aug sept and from what iread last night about israel striking iran i can envisage $100 a barrel of oil so i think i might pop back in later this year but thanks for your help its much appreciated.

by the way does anyone know any good uranium stocks i could expose myself to ! im thinking this will be the new oil and i wouldnt mind gett in there before the party starts.

deemy2004

The markets are correcting, I don't see anything unhealthy about a healthy correction .... ... Great time to accumulate

I'm also in the indian fund, though for the long-term, the correction could carry to 140 (cur 149), it still looks a good long term bet, still pretty close to its all time high of 164.

A Stock that is, and likely to continue do well is BT, Why ? because its out of favour and has good long-term fundementals.

blinko

great just looked at the indexes this morning and everything is flying up i just hope i get todays prices instead of yesterdays, and thanks to deemy2004 WOW how do you know all this stuff and yeah i think telecoms will do well but im not to clued up on individual shares etc anyway just to update i have sold them today and i shall try to be poping back in around the summerish time winterish pending on my feeling on the stock markets direction this is of course if i still have some money after the summer

deemy2004

When I have money on the line ... then it tends engage my brain