Shares - just a bit of fun

black_taxi_2

best to do it weekly closing price fri

srcandas

Just in case you thought this had gone away I have some data and will get back after 6 weeks (when I return from hols).

Early indication is that the top ten winners are doing better than the top ten losers. Both are up but then so is the FTSE over the same period.

:beer:

srcandas

Well it's been just over 6 months.

I ran with 10 gainers and 10 losers.

The gainers +43.1%
The losers +4.2%

The losers stayed low as a portfolio and after three months started to gradually recover
The winners as a portfolio just grew at a steady rate

Not scientific or statistically sound but something has made me want to do a bigger experiment.

See you all in six months :cool:

sabretoothtigger

Im not sure about this method because gainers would mean just that one day? Thats almost completely random
The biggest factor in this survey may have been coincidence, the date of the thread was close to a market bottom

If you said shares which rose over 50 days on average vs those which lost then its gainers that will win (comparatively), sight unseen

MA or moving average 50 and MA200 is used daily by people (investment companies even, your pension fund) as a way of spotting 'strong' stocks

I thought selling the winners and buying more of the losers was called "rebalancing" and actually recommended to "lock in the profits" and help bring the risk back to your desired level.

The reason thats a bad method is because it gives a bias towards failing companies. Classic example is the banks in 2008, all of them were cheap but it was with good reason as it turned out, doing that rebalance would have wiped out the portfolio as quickly all money is put into RBS

I ran with 10 gainers and 10 losers.

What companies were they

gadgetmind

While rebalancing isn't perfect, it generally works very well across asset classes and territories. Care needs to be taken when applied to individual companies, of course, and even some sectors at times.

adewalton

I'm on the gainers.....
Thanks

srcandas

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Im not sure about this method because gainers would mean just that one day?

It was a bit of fun but to be in the top gainers or bottom losers does show that there was volatility. Some companies appear frequently in both lists. Other companies appear rarely in either.

I guess you would appear in the gainers if there was a take over sniff or if you announced good unexpected figures.

You might appear in the losers due to unexpected bad news.

So something happened unless it was just a very quiet settled day and even the best and worst hardly moved

And despite the reason clearly the share price took a negative or a positive price movement away from market average.

I'll keep looking at it but 43.1% makes me wish I had had a punt on the winners which I didn't :rotfl: