Debate on sorting the EU economy out!

CKhalvashi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Scrap the Euro and allow individual currencies to float perhaps. One size fits all simply doesn't work. While tax rates, retirement ages, welfare benefits etc all differ.

I’m going to disagree on this with my above post, as there is a decent chance of making the above work with the right integration.

One thing that does need to happen is a radical capitalist scheme in the former USSR states, as more than 20 years later, we are stuck with an economy in transition. It’s going noone any good!

CLAPTON

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

First thing is Greece needs to default, drop out of the Euro and devalue. It will hurt, but just go for a full default, take the pain, and then move on. They do that and while they will have a horrendous 2-3 years, after that, they could come out of this as one of the first to start recovering properly.

Rest of Europe - They have a choice, either move towards political union, or drop the € back to a solid core of countries. Or, continue to flounder for another decade or 2.

In the UK, we are not at a stage that requires default, but there is a lot of debt kicking around. To me there are 2 choices, or a combination of the 2. Either a prolonged period of stagnation as debts are slowly paid off (the price of taking consumption yesterday instead of today), or letting inflation rip to wipe out the value of much of the debt in the UK. As unpopular as the BoE and government seem to be, I think they are on the right course, try to keep inflation at a decent level -3-5%, reduce the deficit and just sit tight for the next 5 years. If we get 5-10 years of little growth and 3-5% inflation, I think that is job done and the UK will be back on course. This ain't popular with most, but there is no magic panacea, there is a price to pay for all that borrowing and one way or another much of that price still needs to be paid.

in my view greece needs

1. in the league of corrupt countries, Greece is ranked with Pakistan: they need to change this
2. they need to start collecting taxes like other civilised countries
3. they need to free their own vigour and seek to exploit their natural advantages and stop being a dependent state of the EU.
Think: why has tourist revenue dropped 30% in the last 10 years; maybe because it was easier to milk the EU instead; so there was no incentive to improve the tourist experience; I've no plans to go there, has anyone else?
4. maybe default on their debts too because they have left it too late for anything else b ut there will be a huge price to pay so it's not any obvious solution
5. stop spending huge sums on their defence forces



There is no possibility of a long term political union in Europe; well not without a European war (think USA and a bitter civil war).

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I’m going to disagree on this with my above post, as there is a decent chance of making the above work with the right integration.

Too late. At the outset was the time to integrate. The whole concept has been implemented on political not economic grounds.

The_J

I'm going to agree with Thrugelmir for once. Political union had to happen first and monetary/fiscal union afterwards.

It has been rushed and it will do more damage than if nothing had been done.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I’m going to disagree on this with my above post, as there is a decent chance of making the above work with the right integration.

One thing that does need to happen is a radical capitalist scheme in the former USSR states, as more than 20 years later, we are stuck with an economy in transition. It’s going noone any good!

just to clarify

you are saying that the current situation in the old soviet union is

1 worse that under the USSR
2. better than is was under the USSR
3. not as good as it could theoretically be if the wishes of the peoples were ignored?
4. not as good as it could theoretically be if the wishes of the people were incorporated
5. not as good as it could theoretically be in a perfect world

pqrdef

michaels wrote: »

The US seemed to be in a worse place than Europe with the financial crisis a few years ago and yet it seems to have more capacity to reinvent its economy, why is this?

I'm not sure it's still true. Time was when Americans mostly bought American, so as demand picked up, jobs were created. But now the shops are full of imported goods, so rising U.S. demand creates jobs elsewhere.

The U.S. may have to resort to protectionism. China is already complaining about the use of anti-dumping measures to block trade.

Same problem here. Our service sector is scarily big, considering that most of what it "produces" is of no lasting value. But the only way we keep the jobs at home is to spend our money having our hair cut and our nails done and our backsides tanned.

CKhalvashi

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Too late. At the outset was the time to integrate. The whole concept has been implemented on political not economic grounds.

Europe needs to have the same political aims and same financial aims for us to get anywhere with getting out of this recession.

CKhalvashi

CLAPTON wrote: »

just to clarify

you are saying that the current situation in the old soviet union is

1 worse that under the USSR
2. better than is was under the USSR
3. not as good as it could theoretically be if the wishes of the peoples were ignored?
4. not as good as it could theoretically be if the wishes of the people were incorporated
5. not as good as it could theoretically be in a perfect world

I’m saying, as a dual Russian-Georgian national, that the CIS is worse than the USSR.

AS far as the USSR was concerned (and this was the same scheme that I lived under until 1990, when I came to the UK), there was a wage at the end of each month; now there is no such guarantee. The effects of this are clear more than 20 years on, especially in rural areas, outside of Zones ’77’ and ’78’ (Moscow/St. P)

pqrdef

CLAPTON wrote: »

there will be a new invigourated set of nation states; instead of seeing who can milk the EU for as much as they can get, will instead stand on their own feet and make the best of their talents and natural advantages

Disastrous. This is the 21st century, we can't rerun the 19th. Europe can't possibly compete with the rest of the world if we're wasting our resources and energies competing with each other.

There needs to be a huge rationalisation of European industry to reduce costs and create world-class firms producing global volumes, because those are the only firms that will be worth the investment needed for modernisation.

As things stand, there are too many factories that aren't big enough to be economically fitted out with robots, and they will just go under, while we all squabble about which "country" the new megafactory should be built in.

Europe is going to have to be one country, whether we like it or not, unless we want it to be carved up between foreign powers in the way that Africa was 100 years ago.

CLAPTON

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Europe needs to have the same political aims and same financial aims for us to get anywhere with getting out of this recession.

and presumably, if the peoples of Europe don't agree the are useful lessons that can be learned from USSR about ways of dealing with them.