Investing in Greece

thelawnet

Any thoughts?

The Athex is down over 90% from its peek.

I think it presents a very interesting opportunity.

I remember the Indonesian stockmarket after the currency collapsed. The market fell by over 50%, and stayed down for about 4 years, but since 2002 has risen 12-fold

P3dro

Perhaps, but to make a move before the solution is in place wouldn't be smart. You say Indonesia increased by 1200%, wouldn't it be more prudent to wait until things start to turn before getting it, even if means you only get say 1000%?

Reaper

A brave contrarian play but a bit early I think. I read recently an estimate that if Greece left the Euro and went back to the drachma its value (and with it your investment) would devalue around 40%. I would rather wait and see what happens for now. I suspect money will be rapidly fleeing Greece in the weeks ahead and that will involve more stock market selling.

thelawnet

There would seem potential for more falls, certainly. The index only appears to have 20 stocks, of which the largest is a Coca Cola bottler, I suspect because all the banks have gone down so much....

CLAPTON

may be an opportunity but the stock market is all greek to me

srcandas

On several threads people comment on bargains, the bottom of the market, time to buy. I reckon it has much more down to come as the problems that caused the fall have not been resolved. Worse than that there is not even a solution on the table.

I'm with P3dro all the way. When the markets turn there will be plenty of time to buy. In the meantime vacuum up a bit of interest in cash deposits.

As for Greece I think if they stabilise the market in four years at current values they will have done well. Unless there is a world shortage of olives I see no reason for massive growth.

But as always I might be wrong

oldtoolie

Indonesia -- huge country, young population, loads of natural resources
Greece -- ?

Masomnia

Could go down another 90%.

For me the risk of them leaving the Euro and that hammering the value of your investment is too great. If they do go back to the drachma i think it would be worth a very speculative punt.

atush

I agree. I think there is a real possiblity of them leaving the euro and the value of your investment could be wiped out when a new drachma is brought in.

Sceptic001

I agree that the Greek economy will not start to recover until it leaves the euro. The tourist industry for instance will receive a massive boost if it has a 40-50% price advantage over its neighbours.

The example of Argentina de-coupling from the USD gives some evidence of the likely consequences of Greek exit from the euro, but the rate of recovery is likely to be slower because of worse world economic conditions and Greece's lack of natural resources and industry.

On a practical point, are there any funds/etfs investing solely in Greece?

srcandas

Just to side step a little I'm thinking maybe one shouldn't be looking for strong recovery from the bust countries but recovery from the countries who have used the crisis to better position themselves.

I feel China is being forced to look inwards for new markets and this internal growth will give it a good base as the world economy recovers.

And my other interest is the non-euro neighbours like Turkey and Scandinavia. Just a thought. Now back to how much does a Greek urn