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Mervyn King: "This was a bust without a boom"
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
"Whether in this country, the United States, or Europe, there was no unsustainable boom like that seen in the 1980s; this was a bust without a boom".
~Mervyn King, 02/05/2012
Interesting perspective. He's certainly right about the UK. Not sure about Europe and the US though.
Although I suppose he's clarified that with regards to UK housing anyway.
As Pesto would put it....
First, and strikingly, he does not believe that the rise in house prices here is nearly as dangerous or unsustainable as what happened in Spain, the Republic of Ireland and the US, because we did not experience the massive construction boom of those countries (their countries are filled with empty new houses; the UK does not have this glut).
And Broadbent has noted something similar... This wasn't a lending led boom in the UK.
Here's another interesting fact: the median loan-to-value ratio on a new mortgage didn't go up during the "boom" years - in fact, for most of the 1990s and noughties it was falling.
That's consistent with the idea that rising house prices caused bigger mortgages - not the other way around.
According to Broadbent, there isn't even much evidence that "mortgage withdrawal" - loans taken out on the basis of rising property values, were used to fund extra consumption.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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"House prices won't fall"
~ Hamish McTavish, 2007.
People can say what they like. Doesn't make it so.0 -
You probably missed the point but Hamish is a random guy from Aberdeen on an Internet forum. Mervyn King is head of the Bank of England.Graham_Devon wrote: »"House prices won't fall"
~ Hamish McTavish, 2007.
People can say what they like. Doesn't make it so.0 -
You probably missed the point but Hamish is a random guy from Aberdeen on an Internet forum. Mervyn King is head of the Bank of England.
Oh ok...Mervyn King....
"Inflation will be at or below target in 2010"
"Inflation will be at or below target in 2011"
"Inflation will be at or below target in 2012"
The random guys on the internet did better.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »"House prices won't fall"
~ Hamish McTavish, 2007.
People can say what they like. Doesn't make it so.
Can you point out where I said that please?
Or do you have to resort to lying about your opponents to score cheap internet points?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Can you point out where I said that please?
Or do you have to resort to lying about your opponents to score cheap internet points?
Not on this forum I can't as you joined after the event, but it's been linked from another forum before now.
Are we going to pretend you saw the price falls coming all along? Just been arguing against them and telling us immigration and supply issues will continue to put pressure on prices? Just not in the years 2007-9?0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Not on this forum I can't as you joined after the event, but it's been linked from another forum before now.
No it hasn't, because I never said it.
So once again, can you point to the link, or are you going to continue lying to score cheap internet points?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »"House prices won't fall"
~ Hamish McTavish, 2007.
I joined hpc about 2 months before I joined here.
So where is this quote from 2007?
Or do you now admit you're a liar?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »...[the usual tosh]...
see previous posts for comments on every one of the nonsensical points made there.
and for the record.
FACT.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »I joined hpc about 2 months before I joined here.
So where is this quote from 2007?
Or do you now admit you're a liar?
I cannot prove it, though as I say, have seen it linked to with the whole geener debate.
So I'll take it back if you like, as I have no concrete proof....not that I think I need it, it's quite clear you didn't think prices would fall, considering the reasons you use for prices increasing!
Anyway, this is detracting from the subject (my fault).
Mervyn can say what he likes. Doesn't make it all of a sudden true, and it's fairly clear, from the articles this prompted in the media, not many agreed.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I cannot prove it, though as I say, have seen it linked to .
That's impossible.
As I didn't join HPC until the end of 2008, which was over a year after prices started falling.
So I could not have made any such quote in 2007.Mervyn can say what he likes. Doesn't make it all of a sudden true, and it's fairly clear, from the articles this prompted in the media, not many agreed.
Ah right....
Actually I think it's fairly clear that many in the media are starting to see the opposite.
Just look at all the recent articles pointing out the facts on UK lending, and that it was never a problem.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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