Officially in recession

daveyjp

brit1234 wrote: »

So we have have been tipped back into recession because of a collapse in the construction sector. That can't be good for the house price growth optimists (ie over leveraged landlords).

With mortgage rates rising, stamp duty back, high inflation, wage freezes, rising unemployment can anyone really say house prices won't fall back to reasonable levels.

Construction is far more than house building. Round us a number of stalled housing projects are shooting up and are selling.

Look at regional city centres. Where are the new offices? Look out of town where are the new factories? A developer I know has done NO speculative building since 2008. He has been in the business 62 years and it is the first time he hasn't been building something with a view to shifting it whilst it is being built.

Scrapping empty rates bills on new build properties for three years following completion, rather than 3 months would help to give some confidence to developers to start building again.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I dunno. You forecast a double dip recession. You get called an idiot, doom monger, arm chair economist.

[sniggers] - you've been forecasting a double dip for how long?

You've predicted 8 of the last two recessions. Only Moneyweek have predicted more.

Sampong

chucky wrote: »

I heard that it was 99.7% of all BTL loans that were fraudulent, I read it on here btw so it must be true.

I wouldn't say 99.7% of BTL loans are fraudulent.

In respect of the over valuation of properties by surveyors I didn't read it here, I was informed of what was going on by a letting agent.

Questionable practices go on in the Lettings and Estate Agents industry, anybody who doesn't think this is the case is living in another world.

ess0two

brit1234 wrote: »

Run_rabit_run, Chucky, Esso, Nollag still the same over leveraged landlord in deep trouble no matter how many ids you have here on MSE.

The reason prices went up so much was too low interest rates, loose lending and fraud. The cost of borrowing is being forced up, lending has tightened and fraud has been clamped down on. House prices are going one way and it aint up.

Yawn...........

Borrowing going up,London house prices going up,its an ideal situation for yourself, eh?

tomterm8

It's interesting everyone is calling this a double dip recession. It isn't, IMHO, since there has been too long a gap since the last one. I think this recession could be worse than many of the pundits expect... my sence is that since monetary and fiscal policy has been expended there is only a hairs breath between a normal recession and a greek style depression.

It is nothing to celebrate.

brit1234

tomterm8 wrote: »

It's interesting everyone is calling this a double dip recession. It isn't, IMHO, since there has been too long a gap since the last one.

I take the opposite view. I see it as all part of the dot com bust. Remember the Alan Greenspan tactics of staving off an international recession by lowering interest rates. The whole international debt bubble took off then turning one bubble into another one (property) and lowering interest rates continuously to keep that one inflated.

shortchanged_2

wotsthat wrote: »

[sniggers] - you've been forecasting a double dip for how long?

You've predicted 8 of the last two recessions. Only Moneyweek have predicted more.

Why do you think we have avoided recession for so long?

I give you a little clue. It begins with Q and the second word is easing.

Without it the UK would have been in recession long ago. That's what's called kicking the can down the road.

Problem is we're seriously low on options now with interest rates at rock bottom and more QE just really prolonging the agony.

Sibley

Dont worry Graham.

Your life is still grim and house prices will still rise.

Sir_Humphrey

Oooh, am I having to bite my tongue with some people on this...

I told you so...

Ooops.

Graham_Devon

QE back on the table now...possibly as soon as next month.

‘QE has failed,’ she said. ‘It must end. There are better ways to stimulate the economy. Indeed, QE has harmed rather than boosted growth.’

But others called on the Bank, which this month hinted it has turned its back on the programme, to press ahead with more QE next month.

‘This could be something of a game-changer,’ said Philip Shaw, UK economist at Investec. ‘There is a genuine debate to be had over whether it is wise to suspend QE at this point in time.’

Azad Zangana, European economist at Schroders, said: ‘It will be remarkable if the Bank does not respond with more QE. We expect the Bank to extend QE next month by an additional £50billion.’