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Are we in a recession (officially) - announcement Wednesday AM
michaels
Posts: 29,236 Forumite
Time for a poll?
I think....
Q1 20112 Growth forecast 32 votes
Recession : minus 0.1% or less
18%
6 votes
It was the fuel what won it : 0%, +0.1%
31%
10 votes
Full steam ahead on the SS ZigZag : +0.2% or more
15%
5 votes
Don't care what the official figures say annual GDP growth below trend feels like a Recession anyway
34%
11 votes
0
Comments
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+0.5 to -0.5 is my guess ........... absolutely nothing can be drawn from figures so low.Bringing Happiness where there is Gloom!0
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I think whatever the figure, it'll be revised quite a bit over the coming years.
Still, I'm going for 0.1% growth but mainly due to construction dragging things down a lot. Wouldn't be surprised at a negative figure though.0 -
I think we'll just scrap through and avoid going into an official recession this quarter, but only just. In reality we'll be as flat as a pancake. Next quarter the BoE seems to be saying risks being negative again.[FONT="]“I've learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” ~ Maya Angelou[/FONT][FONT="][/FONT]0
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My heart says +0.2%
My head says -0.2%
As my mouth is bigger than both of them, I'm saying nothing.0 -
The UK has been in a recession for many quarters already.
The official figures may show enough "growth" sporadically to avoid labelling it as a recession, but we are in one, a very long one and one that doesn't appear to be ending anytime soon.'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
Are we in a recession (officially)
I don't think there's any official definition of "recession", so officially it's impossible!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7495340.stm0 -
I had a friend who many years ago worked in the Office for National Statistics in Newport.
The stories he told how some of the statistics are invented/fabricated/guessed at would keep us laughing for hours.
For example ice cream sales - form a team - night out at the seaside - visit one ice cream shop - ask them to guess at sales - x educated guess at shops that sell ice cream in country = ice cream sales.
If anyone questioned the figures, claim statistical error and repeat process until a better figure is agreed or government department claims that the figure is not relevant or out of date.
All figures on this basis are guessed at,recession or no recession, only you can tell the value of money in your pocket and its buying power.Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it
everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Groucho Marx
0 -
What i would be more intersted in, is someone explaining how we are expecting to get out of the economic mess that we are in when we have applied the majority of measures required to fix such problems
The only way out is for the the country to take a bullet, raise interest rates, take a lot of hardship and reset the economy0 -
The UK has been in a recession for many quarters already.
The official figures may show enough "growth" sporadically to avoid labeling it as a recession, but we are in one, a very long one and one that doesn't appear to be ending anytime soon.
I Agree -I believe a trended real figures would be showing a reduction in growth levels for many years. Yes there have been periods of growth inflated and adjusted but the overall trend has been down."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
Don't panic. It's not that bad, if politicians don't make it worse.The only way out is for the the country to take a bullet, raise interest rates, take a lot of hardship and reset the economy
After the 1929 crash, there were a lot of ignorant and ill-considered knee-jerk reactions that made things worse.
The craze for deficit reduction and budget balancing was a knee-jerk reaction. It caught the Zeitgeist - people were in the mood for a bit of flagellation (of everybody else, not themselves). But it wasn't necessarily the right idea.
And anybody who talks about "taking a lot of hardship" expects to be fairly well insulated from it themselves."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0
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