The future of France

michaels

A socialist victory in the first round which the beeb is reading as very good news for Hollande - not being a conspiracy theorist but what are the odds of a lot of Threats to France national security appearing in the next two weeks?

Wookster

Mrs_Bones wrote: »

Merkel's grand idea of a fiscal compact isn't that good news for France though and Hollande has already said he would tear that up.

I think a Hollande victory (and recent events in Netherlands: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9219903/Dutch-crisis-puts-eurozone-debt-rescue-plans-at-risk.html)
will bring the Eurozone crisis to a head.

There are very very few countries that are capable of a currency union with Germany. The FPIIGS are surely not in that league.

Mrs_Bones

Wookster wrote: »

I think a Hollande victory (and recent events in Netherlands: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9219903/Dutch-crisis-puts-eurozone-debt-rescue-plans-at-risk.html)
will bring the Eurozone crisis to a head.

There are very very few countries that are capable of a currency union with Germany. The FPIIGS are surely not in that league.

Agreed, Germany, at least so far, will not contend the two other logical factors to help the Euro survive at least in some way. Either to adjust rates to reflect different EU area economic conditions or find a way to allow some of the weaker members to leave the Euro currency and start their own back up.

This only leaves the fiscal union idea and it is being pushed as the saviour of all, which of course it isn't. If that idea is also taken off the table it leaves very little else to use for smoke and mirrors.

It's not just France either. The Greeks also go to the polls on May the 6th and there is no guarantee that the puppet government the EU put in or even a favourable coalition will gain power and push through what has already been agreed.

We seem to be in the calm before the storm.

Wookster

Mrs_Bones wrote: »

The Greeks also go to the polls on May the 6th and there is no guarantee that the puppet government the EU put in or even a favourable coalition will gain power and push through what has already been agreed.

The Pasok party is pretty much guaranteed to lose. They have about 6% support at the moment. All around Europe, the masses reluctance to accept austerity seems to be getting in the way of saving the Euro.

Mrs_Bones

Wookster wrote: »

The Pasok party is pretty much guaranteed to lose. They have about 6% support at the moment. All around Europe, the masses reluctance to accept austerity seems to be getting in the way of saving the Euro.

Is a flawed idea worth saving?

Generali

As the French economy is in about the same place as the UK's right now I think we're about to see a great economic experiment as to whether austerity-lite or Keynsianism works best in the current situation.

Masomnia

I'm wondering if a(n) Hollande victory could be good news for the UK. All the millionaires coming over here buying our houses, spending money in our shops, and maybe even starting businesses here!

Wookster

Mrs_Bones wrote: »

Is a flawed idea worth saving?

Clearly not, but the Euro needs to be removed orderly rather than a disorderly collapse. That would be mayhem.

Generali wrote: »

As the French economy is in about the same place as the UK's right now I think we're about to see a great economic experiment as to whether austerity-lite or Keynsianism works best in the current situation.

True, though the big difference is that the UK has full control over monetary policy whereas France does not.

JasonLVC

Hollande may have won the first round but its not over yet.

Sarkozy is pretty much detested in France, much like Gordon Brown was. Sure Sarkozy has his supporters (as did Brown), but the electorate, given the chance, would rather choose someone else (even if it is Hollande or in our case, Cameron) than more of the same.

On saying that, third place votes went to the far right Le Pen which had a surprisingly strong showing and Sarkozy has been tough on immigrants/illegals over the last 24 months so may scoop up some votes from Le Pen.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

As the French economy is in about the same place as the UK's right now I think we're about to see a great economic experiment as to whether austerity-lite or Keynsianism works best in the current situation.

Austerity-lite, indeed.

It staggers me how we are addicted to spending other peoples money.

In the last few weeks alone;

+ My secretary's Dad was having NHS jabs at £5000 a pop

+ Had several East European tenants in all claiming HB (this is a new experience here)

+ Had several RTB claimants in with c£70,000 discounts

+ Have several tenants with larfge familes claiming tens of thousands per annum

+ I'm about to have physio on the NHS

+ Dads just an an op for trigger finger


Thats just in my little corner of the world alone.
How on Earth is it all sustainable?

Are we addicted to entitlement?