Northerners at greater risk of mortgage arrears

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

cause.effect.

Of no relevance.

You can't have one without the other.

If you're wanting to see lower house prices, then you're wanting to see the increase in unemployment that goes along with that.

nearlynew

"jobs" in themselves are not necassarily a good thing.

Even slaves have "jobs".

abaxas

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Of no relevance.

You can't have one without the other.

If you're wanting to see lower house prices, then you're wanting to see the increase in unemployment that goes along with that.

Equally you could say...

"If you're wanting to see higher house prices, then you're wanting to see the increase in unemployment that goes along with that."

If only we hadn't spunked it all on houses and tat, we wouldn't have this problem. You get withdrawal symptoms when you give up cigarettes, but you wouldn't have if you hadn't started smoking.

Reason for withdrawal = you decided to smoke.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Can you point to any period in UK history where house prices have fallen significantly for any length of time without an increase in unemployment?

I probably can't no, as you are, I assume, asking for any period of house price falls where there has also been "a" period of unemployment....i..e not neccesarily "house prices fell for 4 months, and unemployment fell for 4 months".

I can look at the US and Ireland however, and see that, although yes unemployment was / is an issue, the falls in property prices don't go hand in hand with increases in unemployment.

For example, as far as I'm aware, unemployment hasn't increased 50%. Whereas house prices have fallen approximately that much.

Yes unemployment happened, as it would do in all countries and has done regardless of their housing policies. But that's the nature of recessions. It does not mean that house prices will ONLY fall when unemployment increases. Otherwise how do yo uexplain the US, Ireland, Spain etc?

the_flying_pig

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Of no relevance.

You can't have one without the other.

If you're wanting to see lower house prices, then you're wanting to see the increase in unemployment that goes along with that.

Why? There's no logic to this.

As for evidence, US unemployment has fallen noticably over the last two years at the same time as house prices have fallen another 10%.

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

nearlynew

A properly functioning housing market needs repossessions in order to operate efficiently.

It is the market's way of rebalancing and the only fair way of achieving the price discovery which McTittish is so fond of.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

For example, as far as I'm aware, unemployment hasn't increased 50%. Whereas house prices have fallen approximately that much.

Your awareness is lacking....

Unemployment rate:

Ireland:

2007 4.3%

2012 14.3%

The 2012 figure is 332% of the 2007 figure.

Yes unemployment happened, as it would do in all countries and has done regardless of their housing policies. But that's the nature of recessions.

Indeed.

Recessions, falling house prices, and rising unemployment are all linked.

You can argue cause and effect all day long, but in the UK market, we've never had one without the other two coming along shortly after.

It does not mean that house prices will ONLY fall when unemployment increases. Otherwise how do you explain the US, Ireland, Spain etc?

US, Ireland, Spain have all had massively worse increases in unemployment than the UK. And much bigger falls in house prices.

Not sure what your point is here Graham? Other than accidentally proving mine.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Your awareness is lacking....

Unemployment rate:

Ireland:

2007 4.3%

2012 14.3%

The 2012 figure is 332% of the 2007 figure.



Indeed.

Recessions, falling house prices, and rising unemployment are all linked.

You can argue cause and effect all day long, but in the UK market, we've never had one without the other two coming along shortly after.



US, Ireland, Spain have all had massively worse increases in unemployment than the UK. And much bigger falls in house prices.

Not sure what your point is here Graham? Other than accidentally proving mine.

My point is that you can have falling house prices without increasing unemployment.

Same as you can have rising house prices with increasing unemployment.

I'm just not sure of the goalposts you are setting in order to discuss it.

This graph proves your theory completely and utterly wrong...



1975 - 78

1990 - 92

2004 - 06

What happened to your theory in those most notable periods?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

Why? There's no logic to this.

Of course there is.

It's self evident. And indeed, it's the basis on which the IMF are suggesting further mortgage relief, if you bother to read the whole article. Because economies and house prices are deeply interlinked.

As for evidence, US unemployment has fallen noticably over the last two years at the same time as house prices have fallen another 10%.

I don't recall claiming that one would not recover before the other. Which one that is depends entirely on local circumstances and the causes of each individual slump, which will often be different between countries.

But the fact remains that you can't have a house price crash without an increase in unemployment.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Of course there is.

It's self evident.



I don't recall claiming that one would not recover before the other. Which one that is depends entirely on local circumstances and the causes of each individual slump, which will often be different between countries.

But the fact remains that you can't have a house price crash without an increase in unemployment.

And there are the goalposts I mentioned....

We've even moved from falls to crash.