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Debate House Prices


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Take cover! The housing market is heading for a bloody and protracted crash!

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Comments

  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    DpchMd wrote: »

    A £200k house today could conceivably be worth over £400k in 25 years time.

    and if its not?

    Mortgage lending is still contracting. So unless people save very hard there's not the funding available to lift prices.
  • DpchMd
    DpchMd Posts: 540 Forumite
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    and if its not?

    Mortgage lending is still contracting. So unless people save very hard there's not the funding available to lift prices.

    We both know I could list many more reasons why house prices are likely to increase rather than decrease over a 25 year period, but listing them would be a waste of my time.

    There's absolutely no way that you believe that house prices will nominally decrease or stagnate over a 25 year period, so your statement is misleading.

    I'm a mathematical guy. Most of the decisions I make are based on probability and potential effect. Betting that property prices will increase over a 25 year stretch is a no-brainer.
    "Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship." - Benjamin Franklin
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    DpchMd wrote: »
    We both know I could list many more reasons why house prices are likely to increase rather than decrease over a 25 year period, but listing them would be a waste of my time.

    There's absolutely no way that you believe that house prices will nominally decrease or stagnate over a 25 year period, so your statement is misleading.

    I'm a mathematical guy. Most of the decisions I make are based on probability and potential effect. Betting that property prices will increase over a 25 year stretch is a no-brainer.

    Then you'll also know mortgage rates could rise to 15%+ over those 26 years too. How much better off would the homeowner be then?
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    DpchMd wrote: »
    I'm a mathematical guy.

    Then you've computed the impact of the reversal of fractional reserve banking after 40 years of unbridled growth. Before forecasting the next 25 years.

    Or have you?
  • DpchMd
    DpchMd Posts: 540 Forumite
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Then you'll also know mortgage rates could rise to 15%+ over those 26 years too. How much better off would the homeowner be then?

    All things considered, it would probably still be better to buy than rent.

    You must know that too, not sure why you're acting dumb.

    Have you chosen to rent then Graham_Devon?
    "Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship." - Benjamin Franklin
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Graham_Devon wrote: »
    Then you'll also know mortgage rates could rise to 15%+ over those 26 years too. How much better off would the homeowner be then?

    Significantly.

    Because for mortgage rates to increase to 15%, inflation would be through the roof. And rent inflation along with it....
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • DpchMd
    DpchMd Posts: 540 Forumite
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Then you've computed the impact of the reversal of fractional reserve banking after 40 years of unbridled growth. Before forecasting the next 25 years.

    Or have you?

    Like I said, my decisions are based on probability. I'm not concerned with fantasy outlier scenarios.
    "Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship." - Benjamin Franklin
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Then you've computed the impact of the reversal of fractional reserve banking after 40 years of unbridled growth. Before forecasting the next 25 years.

    Are you really bonkers enough to believe we're in for a 25 year period of monetary contraction?

    :rotfl:
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • DpchMd
    DpchMd Posts: 540 Forumite
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Then you've computed the impact of the reversal of fractional reserve banking after 40 years of unbridled growth. Before forecasting the next 25 years.

    Or have you?


    I assume you've chosen to rent too.
    "Beware of little expenses. A small leak will sink a great ship." - Benjamin Franklin
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    DpchMd wrote: »
    Like I said, my decisions are based on probability. I'm not concerned with fantasy outlier scenarios.

    Keep rolling those dice then. ;)
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