BOE's David Miles: House Prices will "Rise for Years"

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You have to wonder if affordability and HPI are inherantly linked.

with demand increases as population increases, it drives up prices such that fewer, wealthier people have the opportunity to buy.

Until the supply meets and indeed esceeds the demand will you see properties being increasingly affordable to more.


This is true to an extent, people have had the opportunity to save during those 4 years, however we also see that in that time, inflation has increased the costs of other things, meaning the saving potential has been eroded.

Most people want to secure a property at the earliest opportunity and if lower deposit credit was available, more would utilise to use their savings elsewhere. Maybe not the best moneysaving but true nonetheless



Banks are lending mortgage products, people are buying albeit at lower transaction levels than before, so quite simply there is interest in lending / buying in the housing market.

People should consider if the market norms have changed to reflect the current economy.




Affordability is at the lowest rate for years, largely as a result of the current mortgage rates........

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/excel/2012/AffordabiltyQ42011.xls

Mortgage Repayments as a percentage of income is currently 26.6% on average as opposed to the 28 year average of 36.5%

Banks will only lend so much now and the days where people could use Selft ert etc to inflate their incomes are over now. Whether mortgage repayment are less now is not really relevant as we all know where they are going to go and the banks are factoring this in now.

If people can't save for a deposit now then they cant really afford a house. 100% mortgages are over now and in reallity if would be better for the potential FTB to understand that and save for a mortgage. A scheme like this would be agree for a small percentage and would probably cost a bomb.

Wages will be driven down due to the world economy and the fact that companies can easily move parts of their business abroad and relative competition from China etc. There are only so many wealthy people and as I say few will be interested in living outside the well known hotspots.

HPI has bee driven by the introduction of the dual earner and creative earnings but there is really no where else for it to go and this is what we are seeing now.

i don't know about the rest of the country but where I live in the South East there is an over supply of flats and FTB meaning that a similar property to the one I sold in 2004 recently sold for the same proce meaning no HPI for over 7 years. There is a short supply of family houses but not FTB properties and even then there is enough to go around at the moment as inflation on rent in the South East as been pretty poor over the last 15-20 years as a hold only rising by about 30%-40%.

Jimmy_31

Sibley wrote: »

Please allow me.

100% will come back because banks like making money.

Now all this doom and gloom has vanished people can get back to making money.
This is the positive news we needed.

The government will start funding mortgages in the New Build scheme. This will lead to one or two banks or BS offering 100%. They will get all the business and force the others to follow.

Happened last time and will happen again.

Sit back and watch.

Sit back and watch the lost generation rob the lead from your roof.

Keep wishing for your house prices to rise and at some point soon there will be nothing left to rob in the rough areas, and then some people will start to realise how many more people are not willing to play the governments game any more.

Society is falling apart day by day and you cant even see it.

shortchanged_2

suburbanwifey wrote: »

They won't as we won't be selling or moving from where we live, we were lucky to buy the home we want to stay in for life. We have no children so its not even as though we will be leaving it all for anyone so no, in effect it doesn't benefit us or me at all. That is why I can give an unbiased appraisal of the situation, as I stand not to gain or lose. If prices crash, it wouldn't hurt me, if they rise it won't benefit me (unless we go for equity release when we are old and crabby lol) The only benefit for me is no mortgage, security for life whatever happens and more money in my pocket every month as not paying a mortgage. Good point, so I've answered your point.

To be fair this sounds very much like MrRee speak when he made his comeback after years out. Making out he was very unbiased in his opinion. However he wasn't able to contain himself for long and soon showed his colours as a blatant property ramper.

The way you often talk about things surburbanwifey very much comes across like this. You seem to be finding it more and more difficult to contain your 'unbiased' feelings about house prices.

ukcarper

Emy1501 wrote: »

Banks will only lend so much now and the days where people could use Selft ert etc to inflate their incomes are over now. Whether mortgage repayment are less now is not really relevant as we all know where they are going to go and the banks are factoring this in now.

If people can't save for a deposit now then they cant really afford a house. 100% mortgages are over now and in reallity if would be better for the potential FTB to understand that and save for a mortgage. A scheme like this would be agree for a small percentage and would probably cost a bomb.

Wages will be driven down due to the world economy and the fact that companies can easily move parts of their business abroad and relative competition from China etc. There are only so many wealthy people and as I say few will be interested in living outside the well known hotspots.

HPI has bee driven by the introduction of the dual earner and creative earnings but there is really no where else for it to go and this is what we are seeing now.

i don't know about the rest of the country but where I live in the South East there is an over supply of flats and FTB meaning that a similar property to the one I sold in 2004 recently sold for the same proce meaning no HPI for over 7 years. There is a short supply of family houses but not FTB properties and even then there is enough to go around at the moment as inflation on rent in the South East as been pretty poor over the last 15-20 years as a hold only rising by about 30%-40%.

Just because people can’t afford to save a deposit doesn’t mean they couldn’t afford the mortgage repayments. If they are renting they are probable paying a similar amount to the mortgage repayment. If they could save £250 a month it would take them 10 years to save a 20% deposit on the average priced house whereas if they were paying mortgage they would have that £250.

suburbanwifey

shortchanged wrote: »

To be fair this sounds very much like MrRee speak when he made his comeback after years out. Making out he was very unbiased in his opinion. However he wasn't able to contain himself for long and soon showed his colours as a blatant property ramper.

The way you often talk about things surburbanwifey very much comes across like this. You seem to be finding it more and more difficult to contain your 'unbiased' feelings about house prices.

I see what you are saying and to be honest, I have never said I am unbiased. As a homeowner I of course wish prices to only get go up but another poster pointed out to me how unnecessary that thought is, as the actuality of the situation I am in means that if they go up or not, it affects me not. I'm not unbiased but I am trying to always see other posters points of view and quite often when I read their opinions, I go away and think about it and agree with them.

For the last time, I am not this Mr Ree, I am female and don't even know him. Sorry if I often agree by default with what he says! Its nice to see he agrees with some of my opinions if that is the case

Emy1501

ukcarper wrote: »

Just because people can’t afford to save a deposit doesn’t mean they couldn’t afford the mortgage repayments. If they are renting they are probable paying a similar amount to the mortgage repayment. If they could save £250 a month it would take them 10 years to save a 20% deposit on the average priced house whereas if they were paying mortgage they would have that £250.

Not in the South East where I live. Average 2 bed flat around 180-200k. so repayment mortgage about 1k-1250. Average rental price for for a 2 bed flat about £750-£850 and for a 1 bed about £600-£700. Also someone would be mad to take out a repayment mortgage if they can only just afford the repayment figures.

Young couple should be able to save at least 6k or so a year and therefore have their 10% deposit within 3-4 years.

Sibley

Sit back and watch the lost generation rob the lead from your roof.

Keep wishing for your house prices to rise and at some point soon there will be nothing left to rob in the rough areas, and then some people will start to realise how many more people are not willing to play the governments game any more.

Society is falling apart day by day and you cant even see it.

There is no lost generation.

A few chancers who hoped house prices would crash.
Everyone else just got a mortgage and bought a house.

Now you do some overtime, pay more tax and stop whinging.

We need people like you.

The hunters (That's us. The landowners) need farmers to tend our crops and BTL property.

Except your station in life. You will be happier.

You don't need big money like me. You don't go on foreign holidays and have nice things. A couple of pints, a kebab and 20 B&H. There. Your weekends all sorted.:rotfl:

suburbanwifey

ukcarper wrote: »

Just because people can’t afford to save a deposit doesn’t mean they couldn’t afford the mortgage repayments. If they are renting they are probable paying a similar amount to the mortgage repayment. If they could save £250 a month it would take them 10 years to save a 20% deposit on the average priced house whereas if they were paying mortgage they would have that £250.

I agree totally with this! And this is why I do think the 100% mortgage can and to a degree must continue. The issue is can they pay the mortgage, as long as they can, they are a secure bet. I know of some out there who pay ludicrous amounts in rent, much more than a mortgage would cost and with the cost of the rent they are paying, they are strangled as far as saving up a deposit along the lines of 40K.

suburbanwifey

Sibley wrote: »

There is no lost generation.

A few chancers who hoped house prices would crash.
Everyone else just got a mortgage and bought a house.

Now you do some overtime, pay more tax and stop whinging.

We need people like you.

The hunters (That's us. The landowners) need farmers to tend our crops and BTL property.

Except your station in life. You will be happier.

You don't need big money like me. You don't go on foreign holidays and have nice things. A couple of pints, a kebab and 20 B&H. There. Your weekends all sorted.:rotfl:

I do adore you Sibley, that brought a giggle and a smile so eloquently put! hehe. I wish I had the nuts to say that! :rotfl:

suburbanwifey

Emy1501 wrote: »

Not in the South East where I live. Average 2 bed flat around 180-200k. so repayment mortgage about 1k-1250. Average rental price for for a 2 bed flat about £750-£850 and for a 1 bed about £600-£700. Also someone would be mad to take out a repayment mortgage if they can only just afford the repayment figures.

Young couple should be able to save at least 6k or so a year and therefore have their 10% deposit within 3-4 years.

I've often wondered about this: you say it would take 3 or 4 years to save that deposit. In the meantime, during that 3 to 4 years they are saving, house prices keep going up. So, when the 4 years passes, they need to save still more? how does that work, do they ever catch up when they have to save for so many years now? (house prices keep going up in those years! surely better to get a 100% mortgage and be paying that mortgage off in that 4 years no?)