Renewables: "talking 'bout my generation"

Oscargrouch

jkpaul wrote: »

Yes, but what seems crazy to me is that as someone will have to come out ANYWAY, presumably a relatively competent technical engineer (to remove old meter, install new, check all is working & compatible with existing generation meter / Solar PV export etc.) then the question is surely how much MORE would it cost to do that AND at the same time to interrogate the existing meter for the accurate import / export figures?

My guess is not that much more!

It just seems so frustrating, without thousands of Solar PV systems up & down the country without an exact knowledge of how much they are exporting. Mine is one of the few where the accurate figure is accessible and needed, but they won't consider trying to get it!

:wall:

Not being as good at Maths as Sly-Dog surely is, (hence the name) personally, I would adopt his advice. I can remember some years ago that disputing a meter reading, and finding that what they offered was fair, then following a full meter check, it was substantiated as being fair, then the entire cost of the excercise was down to the person who initiated the complaint. Personally, I would take the money and run before you find you are left with Nowt!

Martyn1981

BTW Oscar, regarding the £7k example.

By the end of year 25, the growing £7k investment is worth £21,547. And the re-invested PV is worth £46,573.

But the PV figure doesn't include degradation, nor a replacement inverter.

If you want me to check your numbers (or anyone else) just post the price, approx annual income and savings, a comparative investment rate, and what you think is a fair inflationary percentage.

I can then enter these into the spreadsheet and give some numbers. No hassle, it'll only take a minute - 'click and drag' is your friend!

Mart.

Oscargrouch

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If you want to go even further than this, then I’d suggest getting a life first, or risk ending up like me!

Mart.

Are you saying I need to buy yet another Anorak ? :rotfl::rotfl:
Thanks

Martyn1981

Oscargrouch wrote: »

Are you saying I need to buy yet another Anorak ? :rotfl::rotfl:
Thanks

Nah, just upgrade to Anorak V1.1

Oscargrouch

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Nah, just upgrade to Anorak V1.1

Millets; here I come...:rotfl: But I am already on ver. V1.9:o

shafeeq

Another bad day 5.44kwh...

John_Pierpoint

20.99 Did the washing, heated the water, cooked for a party and filled the freezer with this year's "harvest".

Almost perfect day but some London "fug" drift and a motorway of vapour trails in the almost still sweltering air.

Probably the last tax free "£10 day" this year, despite sunrise over Canvey Island being worth 0.29 already.:D

John_Pierpoint

Martyn1981 wrote: »

BTW Oscar, regarding the £7k example.

By the end of year 25, the growing £7k investment is worth £21,547. And the re-invested PV is worth £46,573.

But the PV figure doesn't include degradation, nor a replacement inverter.

If you want me to check your numbers (or anyone else) just post the price, approx annual income and savings, a comparative investment rate, and what you think is a fair inflationary percentage.

I can then enter these into the spreadsheet and give some numbers. No hassle, it'll only take a minute - 'click and drag' is your friend!

Mart.

Fuel inflation 10%
RPI inflation 5% (this year it is going to be food shortages)
Investment £10k
Replacement (*2?) Aurora inverter £800 ?
Failing Austrian panels?
3.6 system at 42 degrees East of South on 30 degree roof.
No idea what it is expected to produce, but the Total since Valentine's day is 2479.

Opportunity cost of capital net of standard rate tax 2%

Those were the figures I used to take the plunge - the inflation rates might now look high but we will live and learn.

Over to you ?

Martyn1981

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

Over to you ?

Hiya John, here we go:

Based on your generation this year, I've guessed at annual generation of 3,600kWh's. That gives an income of £1,692 @ 47p/kWh. I then rounded it up to £1,800 to include leccy savings (I appreciate that is a low estimate, shall I revise?).

I've changed the cost of capital (interest) to 2%, and used the same rate for the interest earned on the re-invested PV income.

I've changed the inflation figure to 4% - I know you said 5% plus 10% for energy, but they seem a bit high, and fuel inflation can't go up too much forever as it'll rapidly surpass renewables and the cost of CCS for coal plants, which should help to cap prices eventually.

I've also taken the plunge and added a 0.995 multiplier at the end of each 'income' year to reflect degradation of panels.

In year 12 and year 25 I simply deducted £1,200 & £2,000 respectively to represent the cost of a replacement inverter. The figures are higher to hopefully represent inflation, PV losses and labour costs.

Results after 25 years:

Savings of £10,000 with growth (compounded) = £16,406.06
PV income =£69,923.52
PV income plus compounded interest, less inverter costs = £82,879.86

Martyn1981

John, same calculations, but with interest rates at 4%, and leccy savings of £158 pa (giving a first year return of £1,850).

Results after 25 years:

Savings of £10,000 with growth (compounded) = £26,658.36
PV income =£71,865.84
PV income plus compounded interest, less inverter costs = £107,546.96

Please note that those returns are in 2036 money, not 2012 money ie inflation adjusted.

Mart.

Edit: Addendum, at the end of the 25 years, you'll still have a PV system generating mid to high 80% of original, with a brand new inverter, giving leccy savings and export income.

Addendum 2, if inflation was to stay at 4% pa throughout, then (roughly) every £26,658.36 in 2036 is worth £10k today, so in today's money £107,546.96 would be £40,342. M.