Renewables: "talking 'bout my generation"

tunnel

Merlin139 wrote: »

Forecast for tomorrow is mostly sunny!!!!! :j

And you believe it??

zeupater

Oscargrouch wrote: »

I think it is less than £100 mill.......

Agree, but it's not installed & working yet, so there's plenty of scope for project overspend ... don't forget that everything would be on a 'current cost' basis and there's probably an allowable 10% project capital overspend contingency before any external body starts to ask questions, so it doesn't take much to nudge a planned, current cost, £97million (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/new-hpc) up a little, especially so considering that the project isn't planned to be completed until 2017 .... not that I'm sceptical about the price which Cray will charge, it's just the ability of the public sector to manage projects - they don't really have a very good track record .....

HTH
Z

legoman62

Typical Nov day here on the E. Coast:(....well I hope not. 0.55 O's today:)

KevinG

tunnel wrote: »

And you believe it??

Why the scepticism about weather forecasts? I find they are generally accurate and improving all the time.

Oscargrouch

KevinG wrote: »

Why the scepticism about weather forecasts? I find they are generally accurate and improving all the time.

Not off to a good start here; see what 16:30 shows....my money is on the Tunnel......:rotfl:

Sun is out all bets are off.......:D
http://wattson.energyhive.com/dashboard/oscarsenergy

Martyn1981

KevinG wrote: »

Why the scepticism about weather forecasts? I find they are generally accurate and improving all the time.

I thought they were excellent back in 2011. I used to look at the week ahead and insert guesstimates of generation, then replace with actuals (need a life, oh boy do I need a life). The figures were always close.

But from 2012 onwards it all seemed to go to pot. A rainy day say 3 days away could be perfect sun by the time it arrived, and vice versa.

However ..... is it just me, or are the forecasts getting more accurate again, looking 3 to 7 days ahead?

Mart.

tunnel

Martyn1981 wrote: »

However ..... is it just me, or are the forecasts getting more accurate again, looking 3 to 7 days ahead?
Mart.

Its just you Mart, it was supposed to be sunny from the off today and yet i got p*ssed wet through on my bike on the way to work;)

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I thought they were excellent back in 2011. I used to look at the week ahead and insert guesstimates of generation, then replace with actuals (need a life, oh boy do I need a life). The figures were always close.

But from 2012 onwards it all seemed to go to pot. A rainy day say 3 days away could be perfect sun by the time it arrived, and vice versa.

However ..... is it just me, or are the forecasts getting more accurate again, looking 3 to 7 days ahead?

Mart.

Hi

Forecasts around here have been really poor for quite some time. The MetOffice seem to run their model then say it's all true, forgetting to look out of the window to check ... simply looking at satellite images for a few seconds gives a complete novice a better short term forecast than the MetOffice provide via the BBC .... the only thing which they do seem to get right on a regular basis is the predicted wind direction and temperature range.

I understand that the investment in the replacement computer is justified through claiming that it will benefit the economy by around £2billion/year. To me this seems a little 'pie-in-the-sky' considering that the main component of any economic boost would be elimination of waste, mainly agricultural at that. Farmers don't need general UK forecasts to be roughly accurate, they need to know what the weather is going to be like where their fields are, and that a forecast issued is pretty accurate long enough in advance to commit resource ... the problem is that more effort is given to decadal forecasts for climate research because that's where the research money and reputations are ....

So, all of this extra processing power and they'll be able to revise the forecast on a more regular basis .... what does that actually say about their own confidence in what they produce - surely, the aim is to say what the weather's going to be like for a period ahead and it actually happens ... get this right and there's no need to run the computations and issue a forecast on anywhere near the frequency that they do today, let alone more often ... don't you just love vanity projects !!

HTH
Z

Oscargrouch

No rain today in Northants; sunshine, cloud would not call it 'mostly' sunny......

2.04 O's not my best day this month....:D

legoman62

[QUOTE=Oscargrouch;
2.04 O's not my best day this month....[]f[/][/QUOTE]

Nor mine either. 2 O's.....I wish:think::think:

1.27 O's for me. Passed 700kWh for this quarter with 11 days to go tho:T