Newsnight: House price crash

SecondLegDownIsTheBigOne

CRASH_BANG_WALLOP wrote: »

dude thats ree's problem. he thinks london with its rich foreign investors is THE UK market he does not realise the rest of the UK market is crumbling

Maidstone's a bit crashy though ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/html/29uh.stm

Mr._Pricklepants

abaxas wrote: »

The problem is that there is much more to the UK than the South.

Fact is, the engine of the UK economy is the South and a crash in some deprived areas in the North is irrelevant.

The North's industrial heart has been ripped out in the 80's and Labour has kept up some aura of 'prosperity' in the North by misguided regeneration projects and a never ending stream of benefits funded by the South.

The North on itself is not viable.

So, what were we talking about? Some dumb estate agent lost a debate with an economist who has a track record of being wrong? Yes, definitely 1-0 to the bears. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

abaxas wrote: »

The problem is that there is much more to the UK than the South.

Indeed there is.

And another problem is that there is more to the North than just a few depressed post-industrial towns where prices have indeed fallen markedly.

You really can't lump the "North" and "South" into neat brackets.

It is true to say that on the whole the south has performed better than the north, but it's not as clear a divide as you'd like to think.

If you believe the statistics (which I am very wary of), on average anyone who bought a house in the last 8 years in the North has lost money already.

Absolutely false.

It is true to say some of the people who have bought in some places in the north at some points in the last 8 years may have a house that is now worth less than they paid for it.

It is also true to say that some people in some places in the north have bought a house in the last 8 years which is now worth more than they paid for it.

However for the majority of people in the north who bought in the last 8 years, even if their house is worth less, it would still have been cheaper to buy than rent the same house for the same time frame.

That is a 20% swing and smells a bit crashy.

Sure.

20% smells a bit crashy.... (unless you're a gold/silver bug in which case it's just a "minor correction", apparently)

But given most people have only 2 options, buy or rent, then surely the point of a crash is that it should make deferring purchase and renting instead worthwhile... For most people, in most places, that has clearly not been the case.

Or to put it another way, had you approached the founder of that house price crash website back when it started, and told him that....

1) You'll get your crash, eventually, but prices will rise 100% first and then only drop 20% before promptly recovering half those losses and stabilising for years.... On average.

and

2) Even though there will be a crash, it'll still be far cheaper for you to buy than to defer purchase and rent because the low mortgage rates and high rents that are coming will be the reverse of what you are expecting

Do you really think he'd have bothered?

Jimmy_31

MrRee wrote: »

For 10 years the bears have been saying that there must be a crash at some point, "it can't go on" they said.

Yet it did go on, and is still going on right now as we type ...... demand is building, unlike builders, and there is a huge shortage of property ..... a boom is underway and prices are shooting up.

The fact that one geek on a TV Show outwits an Estate Agent is hardly a reason to believe what the geek says.

Come on, I know 25 million junior school kids who own more brain cells than your average Estate Agent!!!

I gave up outwitting Estate Agents when I was allowed to wear long trooosers at school.

Facts are facts ... 40 buyers chasing every property in the South, a tiny 0.5% rise in the mortgage rate isn't about to change that!

Zero buyers ignoring plenty of properties around here.

Facts are facts.

What do you think will happen if the boom just kept on going forever and wages stayed the same.

The never ending boom:rotfl:

Jimmy_31

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Fact is, the engine of the UK economy is the South and a crash in some deprived areas in the North is irrelevant.

The North's industrial heart has been ripped out in the 80's and Labour has kept up some aura of 'prosperity' in the North by misguided regeneration projects and a never ending stream of benefits funded by the South.

The North on itself is not viable.

So, what were we talking about? Some dumb estate agent lost a debate with an economist who has a track record of being wrong? Yes, definitely 1-0 to the bears. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

You better hope the north improves, if it doesnt you will see thousands of northerners moving down south to find work.

I suggest you sort your chippys out before we get there.

CRASH_BANG_WALLOP

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Fact is, the engine of the UK economy is the South and a crash in some deprived areas in the North is irrelevant.

there you have it dudes mr ree does not care about dudes in the north now in negative equity. no surprise though as he also laughs at people in the same area who lose their jobs

Mr._Pricklepants

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

You better hope the north improves, if it doesnt you will see thousands of northerners moving down south to find work.

If they have the skills and the will to succeed, they will be most welcome down South. As an added bonus, it will give another boost to house prices and rents here. :T

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

I suggest you sort your chippys out before we get there.

My local chippy is just fine.

Jimmy_31

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

If they have the skills and the will to succeed, they will be most welcome down South. As an added bonus, it will give another boost to house prices and rents here. :T



My local chippy is just fine.

The will to succeed, yeah i know lots of people who just want a job.

Mr._Pricklepants

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

The will to succeed, yeah i know lots of people who just want a job.

Some of them will just have to up sticks.

There's not gonna be a crossrail between Easington and Sunderland.
There's not gonna be a new airport built near Blackburn.
There's not gonna be a High Speed Train serving Toxteth.

You can't just sit on your bum wanting and waiting for a job.

ess0two

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Some of them will just have to up sticks.

There's not gonna be a crossrail between Easington and Sunderland.
There's not gonna be a new airport built near Blackburn.
There's not gonna be a High Speed Train serving Toxteth.

You can't just sit on your bum wanting and waiting for a job.

Gonna be a new Mersey bridge crossing in the Cheshire area.