Sell early 2008, buy back 2015?

thin_rasping_voice

From playthesystem.co.uk:

"Many an expert has looked foolish incorrectly calling the top of the housing market, but UK house prices are currently 37% higher than the long-term trend, and it is PTS's view that at some point they WILL fall. Based on the long-term trend, a house currently on the market for £200,000 has a ‘real’ value of £146,000, with the buyer paying a premium of £54,000. Based on previous housing booms (from Nationwide stats) house prices could continue to rise for a further 15-21 months (peaking around April-October 2008), before finally reaching bust, in an inevitable return to fair value. But because prices during a bear market always undershoot the trend before pulling back upwards towards it, at the lowest point of the undershoot (which could be around 2015), prices could be 25% below the long-term trend. So, a house at £200,000 today may peak at around £228,500 in 2008 before dropping to just £153,500 in 2015, adjusted for inflation.

Of course these timings could be out as history never repeats itself exactly. However, based on this, a strategy could be to sell property in early 2008 to maximise gains, and wait a further 7 years before buying back into the market. This would mean either renting whilst speculating the funds in rising markets (such as commodities) or buying (and living) somewhere abroad where the property market is just beginning to take off. Two countries where real estate prices have not risen in line with the recent global boom are Germany and Japan. Both are looking attractive investments."

nej

Of course, if everyone followed this advice then regardless of what the market was going to do, house prices would fall because there'd me more supply than demand.

Generali

There's nothing harder to predict than the future.

inmypocketnottheirs

Nostalgia isn't what it used to be!

advent1122

I am going to buy in 2008 and sell in 2015 just to be different.

zipwen1

is it all the vultures praying for a crash who are posting these silly threads

manhattan

zipwen1 wrote:

is it all the vultures praying for a crash who are posting these silly threads

no, you got it wrong the vultures are the BTL'ers

manhattan

and i am praying they become extinct pretty soon

CB1979_2

nope it's the loser FTB, who don't earn enough, state their overpriced/unaffordable, yet there are another 10 in front of them in the queue who are ftb who CAN afford them, strange.....

manhattan

CB1979 wrote:

nope it's the loser FTB, who don't earn enough, state their overpriced/unaffordable, yet there are another 10 in front of them in the queue who are ftb who CAN afford them, strange.....

oooooooooohhhhhhhhhh, getting personal are we?

every FTB'r is in a different situation. fair enough if it is a professional couple with no children, on a cracking wage yes.

i must apologise to you for not earning enough to buy my family a house, and for being such a loser and we will resign ourselves to the back of our one bed bmw x5! LOL

hitman_uk

CB1979 wrote:

nope it's the loser FTB, who don't earn enough, state their overpriced/unaffordable, yet there are another 10 in front of them in the queue who are ftb who CAN afford them, strange.....

What utter rubbish. I am a FTB and earn enough to buy but i just refuse to do so. If the other 10 infront of me are like 2 of my friends who earn alot less but agree to borrow 6 times there salary over 50 years for a 2 bed terrace on a main road then more fool them.

My belief is that the average hous price is 200k according to the press which if 2 of you are on 25k a year (average uk wage) then thats 4* your joint salary. I work in a recruitment manager and come across thousands of people who are working for 11 -18 k on temp contracts a year and are the major wage earner. On top of this the temp business particullarly out sourcing and adhoc work is growing and more and more people have unstable jobs.

For me and i know i have gone way off topic is something has to give