Halifax Jan +0.6% MoM -1.8% YoY

Graham_Devon

FTBFun wrote: »

This is more to do with increased risk of fraudulent claims and uninsured drivers though.

It has so little to do with monetary policy i'm surprised (well, only slightly surprised) you've brought it up.

Whether or not it has anything to do with monetry policies is completely besides the point and has no relevance to the point I was making.

It's a rather large increase that I, and every other driver in the UK is having to pay for out of, for most, lower (based on the cost of living) income.

It's just one increase (an example) of where wage inflation wouldn't possibly be able to keep up the pace. And that's just one item of expenditure.

UrWntr

DaddyBear wrote: »

A 1.8% YOY drop with inflation running at 5% suggests otherwise.

So a 1.8% YoY drop coupled with inflation is a crash?

DaddyBear wrote: »

Not a crash

Oh, now it isn't a crash?

DaddyBear wrote: »

Definite downward drift

Agreed, but what's your point? The "downward drift" is still far less significant in cost than most peoples' rent.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And this is where the discussion becomes null and void.

Firstly, not once has anyone suggested "Homeowner armageddon". That is putting a whole new context on what we were discussing, and you are quite correct, no one has forecast that, hence we are not talking about that.

We are discussing where house prices are now (stagnant / slightly falling) based on low interest rate levels, and what higher interest rate levels may do to the balance.

My apologies, I go carried away your your assumption that delaying the innevitable will make things much worse with regards to when rates rise and people ability to pay the mortage.

There are arguments for and against how much it would impact, indeed there is an argument the longer they are low, the less of an impact it will be. (I'll be happy to expand further if need be)

Graham_Devon wrote: »

We don't really need research and statistics to back up what someone was stating. Equally we don't need research and statistics to disprove it. It's clear people are getting used to low interest rates.

Hence why Historically, when we saw rates rise from 4.5% - 5.75% we can see what impact it made.
we can analyse what the reposession rate was when rates were 5.75%, we can calculate what the level of debt should be in a future point of time when rates start to increase and we can see the nett mortgage values decrease.

Anyone worth their salt would use data for analysis to form context of what they are saying.
Simply stating that you don't need data, analysis or research to simply claim people are getting used to lower rate.

what you've said is a personal opinion without any merit which may or may not be true, but you've not shown anything.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I've already agreed with you regarding owners who bought prior to 2008, so no need to fall back onto that argument. It's been 4 years since 2008 however. There are more people out there.

In those 4 years, we've seen low transaction volumes.
Arguably, people may have been able to buy at a discount.

What would you say the percentage of homeowners are at risk? Again, think about when rates were higher and the reposession rates at that time.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As for people paying down mortgages....how many times. Even the BOE have suggested there is no evidence that people are paying down their mortgages en masse. You just keep stating people are. Over and over again.

IIRC, nett mortgages values were reducing, showing that mortgages were getting paid down.
I even record a report from a few months back saying these were at record rates.

Maybe you want to post a link to discuss further and when I have time later, I'll post similarly to aid the discussion.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yer, thanks for the advice.

While the dance I'm witnessing is finely tuned and would score a healthy 8 on strictly, I'm bored of trying to drag you back to what was said.

if you are trying to convey that the solution to higher interest rates for homeowners, even when housing is stagnant and people are struggling today, is to quit your sky subscription and saving 75p in fuel and walking to your local corner shop, I believe this conversation is pretty much over.

Why don't you have a personal MSE challange and jot down the price of everything you pay for and at the end of the day / week / month / quarter, review what was necessary and what was not.

Look at the detail and consider where you can make savings.

challange yourself to live as cheaply as possible. You'll be amazed how much of our income is frittered on non essentials or inefficiency.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

if you are trying to convey that the solution to higher interest rates for homeowners, even when housing is stagnant and people are struggling today, is to quit your sky subscription and saving 75p in fuel and walking to your local corner shop, I believe this conversation is pretty much over.

Homeowners don't need a solution to higher interest rates because...

a) we haven't got higher interest rates and likely not see rates at 'normal' levels for years

b) homeowners aren't struggling either.

Repo's low, arrears low, improving LTV's and spare cash thanks to low interest repayments - doesn't sound like this section of society is struggling too much at all.

Anyway, sticking with the hypothetical, I wouldn't be scoffing at people reacting to interest rate rises by being more thrifty either (this is MSE).

If the average mortgage went from 3.3% to 4% this could be paid for by cancelling a £55 Sky contract. Sky is the most obvious and easy thing to cancel - I'll believe homeowners are struggling when we see subscriber numbers falling apace.

DaddyBear

UrWntr wrote: »

So a 1.8% YoY drop coupled with inflation is a crash?



Oh, now it isn't a crash?



Agreed, but what's your point? The "downward drift" is still far less significant in cost than most peoples' rent.

My point is that this small MOM rise is far from the full picture. We're getting significant YOY real term drops. Those claiming that we're 'on the up' are stupid/deluded/lying (delete as appropriate).

Jimmy_31

MrRee wrote: »

The key has always been Interest Rates.

And those rates are going nowhere for at least 10 years - why? Well, because people much cleverer than us are offering 10 year Fixes at 3.99%!

So, there you have it ...... no crash in House Prices.

There is very little stock for sale, and that which is for sale will sell quickly and at asking or above - there is an inevitable climb in prices underway ..... people are fed up putting their lives on hold waiting - and at the same time paying for someone else's property!

Renting and waiting for some mythical fall in prices is a sad, lonely, black place to be .... constantly paying for nothing, losing value on any deposit, watching house prices remaining firm. I can only weep for those caught in such a hard place.

The estate agents around here must be doing it wrong.

ruggedtoast

This is yet another bitter and distressing blow to hard working, hard pressed families who see their modest dreams of a small family home pushed even further away from them this month. Robbed by specious vested interests, and abused by toxic government policy that pampers the haves and crushes the faces of the have nots into the ground.

shortchanged_2

MrRee wrote: »

The key has always been Interest Rates.

And those rates are going nowhere for at least 10 years - why? Well, because people much cleverer than us are offering 10 year Fixes at 3.99%!

Are these the same experts that foresaw the ultra low interest rates coming when they provided mortgages that followed onto BoE base rate trackers of say 1% or lower?

Sibley

The estate agents around here must be doing it wrong.

Jimmy wake up wake up.
The crackheads next door are trying to steal your milk.:rotfl: