Greece...

Generali

padington wrote: »

Does a full on grexit mean a stampede for more Uk property or will it be a drag on prices ?

Libertas on HPC ( the only HPC forumite that's ever seemingly managed to grow bull horns over there and not get banned ) reckons its going to put a rocket up the London housing market.

Thoughts on this electronic post card please.

You'd imagine that any money that's going to get out of Greece is out so not directly.

The PIS (Ireland look out of the club) might look around nervously so that might be some more money to buy into London.

An actual Grexit is hard to predict as by nature it would be an unstable action. You can bet that the ECB and Greek Government have planned for it just in case (rather like the always unlikely Scottish exit, it is always worth having a plan).

The fundamental fact remains unaltered: Greece is bust and so cannot pay its debts. All that remains to be seen is the manner in which it won't pay.

padington

Know your 'x' from your 'Y' ... ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/how-find-what-country-euro-note

mwpt

I found it interesting that Greek tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is 30% which is the same as Ireland apparently. A fair amount lower than most of Europe but still not so low on a global scale. Are they really a nation of tax dodgers or is that just a reactionary narrative?

Generali

padington wrote: »

Know your 'x' from your 'Y' ... ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/how-find-what-country-euro-note

As the ever interesting but not always 100% non-hysterical zerohedge states:

While we don’t know what will happen if a country drops out, as cunningly the euro experiment architects didn’t build in an exit strategy, we can be fairly certain it won’t involve a small army of Eurocrats marching around, checking the letters on your banknotes and taking them off you.
Beyond the fact that this is completely impractical, that's because notes from different countries end up all over the place.

It's always a great read actually. I've been reading it for years.

antrobus

padington wrote: »

Know your 'x' from your 'Y' ... ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-16/how-find-what-country-euro-note

More info here;
http://www.eurotracer.net/information/notes.php

antrobus

mwpt wrote: »

I found it interesting that Greek tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is 30% which is the same as Ireland apparently. ....

That's what Wikipedia says. Based on data from the Heritage Foundation, apparently.

The OECD has Greece at about 33.5%, with Ireland at 28%. Eurostat has different numbers. I have no idea which one of 'em is right.

mwpt wrote: »

...A fair amount lower than most of Europe but still not so low on a global scale. Are they really a nation of tax dodgers or is that just a reactionary narrative?

Greece does indeed have an issue with tax evasion. But then so do a number of other countries such as Bulgaria, Poland, Italy ...... Greece's problem is that, rather than first tackling tax evasion and then spending the proceeds, it starts off by spending the money and then moaning about evasion.:)

wymondham

The BBC has these as options... which do you all think will happen?


Greece - deal or no deal?

• Option 1: No deal: Greece defaults on IMF and ECB repayments; ECB pulls plug on emergency bank assistance leading to run on Greek banks, capital controls and potential Grexit
• Option 2: Greece agrees reform deal with creditors at last minute and avoids default, staying in euro
• Option 3: No deal reached but both sides paper over cracks and Greece stays in euro for now

On past performance I suspect option 3, possibly 2... (hedging bets!)

[Deleted User]

Option 4: Greece shows the middle finger to the Troika and get rescued by the New Development Bank:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russia-invites-greece-join-brics-new-development-bank-1500901

mwpt

My estimates:

1) 10% chance
2) 30% chance
3) 60% chance

chucknorris

mwpt wrote: »

My estimates:

1) 10% chance
2) 30% chance
3) 60% chance

More or less what I think too, but I'm probably 5%, 40% and 55%. It has been poor timing for me though as I moved quite a bit of cash into the ftse just before Greece pulled that 'bundle and (probably) pay at the end of June' stunt.