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Greece...
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They can't maintain a Government surplus of 4-5% of GDP for long. There'll be a revolution..
Completely agree.
But this is a political problem now more than an economic one.
A deal will be done that allows everyone to save face.
The objective is to give enough concessions to allow them to stay in, while appearing not to give so much in concessions it encourages others to follow their path.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »And presumably they'll all live happily ever after?
Oh heavens no.....
Greece is stuffed under German mandated austerity.
But it would be more stuffed outside the Eurozone and Syriza would be dead as a party if it took them there.
The only way there's a happy ending for the Greeks is if Germany says one thing in public but quietly turns a blind eye to various ECB shenanigans that allow the Greeks an element of relief in private.
I'm willing to bet such a deal will be done. The pragmatic outcome.
It could of course all still go horribly wrong if the greeks push too hard or the germans miscalculate how far they have to concede.
But I'd like to think neither party are that stupid.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »a deal will be done that allows just enoughHAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »A deal will be done that allows everyone to save faceHAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The objective is to give enough concessionsHAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The pragmatic outcome
I think that just about sums up the EU'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
I think that just about sums up the EU
The EU is currently a collective of nation states rather than a single unified nation with component states.
So a requirement for endless compromises and 'workarounds' seems pretty much inevitable until full fiscal integration can be achieved.
That some of these deals won't solve the problem in anything other than the short term is acknowledged by all, there are some problems that cannot be permanently solved by anything less than full fiscal integration, but as such integration is the stated long term destination of the EU project then these temporary fixes will continue to be applied in the meantime.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The EU is currently a collective of nation states rather than a single unified nation with component states.
So a requirement for endless compromises and 'workarounds' seems pretty much inevitable until full fiscal integration can be achieved.
That some of these deals won't solve the problem in anything other than the short term is acknowledged by all, there are some problems that cannot be permanently solved by anything less than full fiscal integration, but as such integration is the stated long term destination of the EU project then these temporary fixes will continue to be applied in the meantime.
Presumably 'full fiscal integration' is a code phrase for 'full political union'.
Other wise I am unsure that the voters in Germany will willing vote for higher subsidies to Greece until they control every substantial element of Greek life.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »No, more concerned that when it does blow up, the losses are going to be bigger than they needed to be.
They're not your losses so why worry about them? If, effectively, Germany chooses to lend money to Greece knowing they won't be repaid that's their look out.
IMO the point of 'pretend and extend' was to ensure a Greek default had the effect on the world economy as would befit the world's 50th biggest economy rather than the uncertainty it would have created 6 years ago.
As the world economy improves Greece's negotiating position weakens by the day.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »....The EU would have known it was a bank holiday too (c). ...
What do you mean "if indeed, it is!"? Do you think I make things up, or is that you lack the ability to use Google?
Yesterday was Clean Monday in Greece. And Cyprus too. It's a public holiday.0
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