Greece...

worldtraveller

Some interesting and sobering reading from the FT Brussels blog concerning a leaked "strictly confidential" Greek debt sustainability report, prepared by analysts in “troika”, that they obtained last night:

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2012/02/more-on-leaked-greek-debt-report/#axzz1mwwHvkIm

Graham_Devon

One thing.

Greek people are up in arms about this. They too, as far as the interviews I have heard, do not want more bailouts and imposed hardship. Now I can't speak on behalf of them all, but this is what I hear on programmes such as newsnight when Greek people are interviewed. It's what i see on blogs.

The Greek people, have, supposedly got an election in April. I say supposedly as I wouldn't be at all surprised if Germany forced that not to happen.

What happens if the Greek people vote in a new government and the government don't continue down this path?

Graham_Devon

worldtraveller wrote: »

Some interesting and sobering reading from the FT Brussels blog concerning a leaked "strictly confidential" Greek debt sustainability report that they obtained last night:

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2012/02/more-on-leaked-greek-debt-report/#axzz1mwwHvkIm

So even the people coming up with these packages know it's not ever going to work?!

I have to say. !!!!!!? I thought they were just blinded by optimism, but seems not.

Graham_Devon

LOL brilliant.

If lenders don't accept the losses of up to 55%, Greece is expected to enforce a new law on these lenders to force them to accept losses.

The losses will be deeper than expected - up to nearly 55%. We will not know until March how many investors have accepted this deal but Greece is expected to pass a law enforcing losses on those reluctant to agree to the terms.

May aswell just throw all rules and regulations up in the air. Contracts are simply worthless if new laws are going to be put in place because Germany says so.

Point being....that's basically a default....

pineapple

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So even the people coming up with these packages know it's not ever going to work?!

I have to say. !!!!!!? I thought they were just blinded by optimism, but seems not.

Not blinded at all. IMO it's all about buying time.
There was some financial pundit on TV last night saying the only way this could be solved was through a tighter fiscal union for EU countries. I know some think the EU might fragment over this but I have a horrible feeling we are headed to the opposite scenario.

Mrs_Bones

Graham_Devon wrote: »

One thing.

Greek people are up in arms about this. They too, as far as the interviews I have heard, do not want more bailouts and imposed hardship. Now I can't speak on behalf of them all, but this is what I hear on programmes such as newsnight when Greek people are interviewed. It's what i see on blogs.

The Greek people, have, supposedly got an election in April. I say supposedly as I wouldn't be at all surprised if Germany forced that not to happen.

What happens if the Greek people vote in a new government and the government don't continue down this path?

I've been wondering for some time if the EU will try to interfere and stop the election going ahead. I know people in Greece and things are bad, the politicians have lost trust and people are now turning to parties on the extreme edge, both left and right. Everything will be up in the air again after the elections if it goes ahead, as new coalitions will need to be formed and for all their orders, Germany and the EU can not control what that government will do if it changes from the current form. It will not be bind by past agreements.

Like wise in France, there is no certainty at all that Sarkozy will win his election in April. His leading opponent is against many of the EU's proposals, including the fiscal unity.

Plater

wellused wrote: »

So when the UK becomes weaker presumably so too does France, Germany, USA, China, the world in general. Not good for anyone including the "markets"?

Well yes every country is getting weaker as they all race to the bottom. The race to debase currencies is no well and truely on. The winner who debases their currency the most will have got out of the most debt. The losers are those who work hard for fiat currencies - well that is just about all of then.

CLAPTON

Plater wrote: »

Well yes every country is getting weaker as they all race to the bottom. The race to debase currencies is no well and truely on. The winner who debases their currency the most will have got out of the most debt. The losers are those who work hard for fiat currencies - well that is just about all of then.

which countries are currently trying to debase their currencies

wellused

Could it be a case of Germany, the ECB/IMF wanting to get rid of the "loaded gun" as they don't want to be seen to be the ones pulling the trigger. The Greeks now have charge of the "Gun" maybe they will contrive to do the dirty work themselves?

Plater

CLAPTON wrote: »

which countries are currently trying to debase their currencies

All the main currencies of the world. The USA is winning by debasing the most, but China has them by the balls. The UK is abusing the pouind a great deal but the printing will get more as the crisis worsens.

The Japanese are trying to create trillions of Yen at the same speed as the rest of the world but are losing. They need to get faster printing presses. Or just dont bother printing it, just type it into bank accounts and spend it that way.