Greece...

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Let us not forget that default needn't mean leaving the Euro. ....

No, but it makes it far more likely.

Generali wrote: »

...There is still no mechanism for leaving the Euro...

Not one that has been released into the public domain. But by now, I would expect that, that there is a Super-Secret Plan B lying on some secured hard drive in Brussels or Berlin.

Generali wrote: »

...and any change to the EMU treaty is subject to a veto by any member of the EMU including Greece.

The Vienna Convention applies.

princeofpounds

I have to re-emphasise this point - you don't need an official mechanism to leave the Euro. It's simply enough that the government doesn't have any of them any more. That forces the issuance of a parallel currency, and it forces the dominant use of it.


Greece might remain stuck in the Euro legal structures for a time, but that can mean very little in practice.

[Deleted User]

Generali wrote: »

Let us not forget that default needn't mean leaving the Euro. There is still no mechanism for leaving the Euro and any change to the EMU treaty is subject to a veto by any member of the EMU including Greece.

Don't you just need a qualified majority nowadays?

Aretnap

ciaccino wrote: »

Don't you just need a qualified majority nowadays?

Qualified Majority Voting applies to some decisions taken by the Council of the EU (aka the Council of Ministers) yes. Treaty changes still require unanimity.

antrobus

ciaccino wrote: »

Don't you just need a qualified majority nowadays?

QMV would certainly apply in terms of making decisions required by the EMU treaty (aka Maastricht, I believe). I'm not so sure it could be applied in terms of making a decision on something which was not mentioned in said treaty; as in terminating the treaty for one particular signatory.

Of course, it might not be necessary to formally do that anyway. As suggested above, substance matters more than form.

purch

Generali wrote: »

Let us not forget that default needn't mean leaving the Euro.

If you are going to default, having your own currency is probably the most sensible way to go.

Of course with those two scruffy eejits in charge, sensible is not something they usually do.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

Let us not forget that default needn't mean leaving the Euro. There is still no mechanism for leaving the Euro and any change to the EMU treaty is subject to a veto by any member of the EMU including Greece.

I bet that's why your economist colleague would vote no though - it's a step closer to default and the Drachma mechanism or not.

If the question was framed in that way I'd consider voting no as a Greek. Greek people don't feel any responsibility for their debts, neither do the government and, let's face it, it would be a surprise of some size if they ever paid it back.

A poor Greek is still going to be poor on Monday and better off Greeks must be sick of the opportunity cost of the constant turmoil.

The problem is a no vote is a vote for the crazies in government and all they're promising to do is to negotiate for more of the same.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

The problem is a no vote is a vote for the crazies in government and all they're promising to do is to negotiate for more of the same.

Whether you agree or disagree with the Government. They most certainly aren't crazy. In fact highly intelligent. As they've exposed the total weakness and fallability in the Euro project. Politics has driven the plans forward not common sense. Too fast too soon.

padington

If I'm honest, I'm rooting for the Greeks to leave just to to see what happens.

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

If I'm honest, I'm rooting for the Greeks to leave just to to see what happens.

Cameron may have no need to push for reform.