Greece...

Generali

purch wrote: »

February's going to be a bit grim :eek:

Look on the bright side purch, it's a leap year next year. :money:

mwpt

princeofpounds wrote: »

The fact that once a government campaigns very publicly to say no to a deal, that government loses all credibility when it asks for a deal. They are either telling the truth to you or telling the truth to their referendum voters. Not both.

Unsure about this. They were elected on the basis that they would end austerity, so that is already well known, referendum or not.

For me the most ridiculous thing is the 'No' campaign claiming the banks would reopen and a better deal available if they vote No. The banks will not reopen - who will provide the liquidity for them to do so?

Yes, this is the thing. They were elected on the back of promises they had no control of keeping, by people who misunderstood this. Claiming control of the banks re-opening is just another promise they have no control over. Left wingers enjoy using humanitarian blackmail to try to further their aims. I say this as someone who actually thought of himself as centre-left and pretty liberal (well, I am still liberal). But emotional blackmail gets tiresome, and it's one of the reasons I think labour did so badly last time.

The best thing to happen in this situation is default. Let all be revealed.

Moby

ggb1979 wrote: »

This people is why you don't vote for socialists, superficially they appear to take care of the little people but what they actually do is destroy whole nations.

Absolute tosh. This crisis pre-dates Syrisa by years. While we're on the subject of 'destroying nations' look at what Western capitalism has done to Africa over the years....and ever considered why Castro came to power in Cuba?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

I suspect that's your lot, no direct debits or electronic transfers. ...

I don't think those are restricted, or matter. A DD or transfer simply involves moving money from one Greek bank to another Greek bank. That's not an issue from the point of view of the solvency of the Greek banking system as a whole. It's removing money from the Greek banking system, either by cash, or by moving it to a none Greek bank, that is the issue.

P.S. Bloomberg says that the Greek banks only have enough money to last until Monday, "according to people familiar with the matter". (Whoever they might be.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-02/greek-banks-seen-likely-to-cling-on-just-long-enough-for-vote

michaels

System dynamics would tell you it is a negative cycle. Who in their right mind in Greece would not try and withdraw as much cash as possible and who on being paid cash would deposit it into a bank and risk losing it?

So even if Greece and the banks were completely solvent the fear of illiquidity resulting in insolvency would make withdrawing and keeping money out of the bank the most sensible route.

antrobus

Moby wrote: »

..and ever considered why Castro came to power in Cuba?

By promising to restore the Constitution of the Republic?

And then reneging on that promise, instigating a Communist dictatorship, and becoming a Soviet client state. I don't think that's the kind of parallel anyone would like to make.

wotsthat

michaels wrote: »

System dynamics would tell you it is a negative cycle. Who in their right mind in Greece would not try and withdraw as much cash as possible and who on being paid cash would deposit it into a bank and risk losing it?

So even if Greece and the banks were completely solvent the fear of illiquidity resulting in insolvency would make withdrawing and keeping money out of the bank the most sensible route.

Apart from some cash to cover DD's the only time I'd have money in a Greek bank would be pay day and that would be remedied with an immediate withdrawal. That's how I would've been living for the last few years.

I'm still bemused by the crowds of pensioners queuing to withdraw money. I can't work out if they're trying to withdraw this months pension or whether they've only just realised their savings are at risk.

Froggitt

michaels wrote: »

System dynamics would tell you it is a negative cycle. Who in their right mind in Greece would not try and withdraw as much cash as possible and who on being paid cash would deposit it into a bank and risk losing it?

Who in their right mind has left it till now to withdraw their hard earned benefits from Greek banks?

Froggitt

mwpt wrote: »

Unsure about this. They were elected on the basis that they would end austerity, so that is already well known, referendum or not.

So if they already have a mandate to end austerity/default/leave the Euro, why the farce of a referendum?

michaels

Well it is probably like the UK where you can't get paid in cash and can no longer just just go and pick up your benefits/pension in cash at the post office.

Even if the Greeks aren't broke the current dynamic means that the traffic at banks will be all one way. Of course if they had their own currency they could print money if need be to provide liquidity and problem solved.