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Annual Prediction Thread for BoE Interest Rates
Comments
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JonnyBravo wrote: »No change for over 2 years.
That should please you RM. That's 24 opportunities to wind up a few people
I dont know what you mean, JB.
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my prediction is that mortgage rates will rise (but maybe only a little) despite BoE rate remaining static. But if you have a mortgage linked (permanently) to base rate you'll be quids in.
.
New mortgage rates can and do fluctuate, but the vast majority of existing mortgages are linked to the BOE rate and will continue to stay low.
As for the OP, I'm going for another year of 0.5%.
And I doubt we'll see base rates rise meaningfully (more than a couple of percent) for many years to come.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Being completely honest, I'm going to have to state: "I haven't got a clue".
Too many things going on I believe. Any of these things could upset the status quo many are currently happy with. It's external factors that will have us moving base rates, not internal, so too tough to call.
Could be 0.5% at year end, but that means it's another year where we haven't actually got anywhere.0 -
Although past performance is not a guarantee of the future, I'd say rates will stay the same. However, as Graham says, there are a lot of external factors that could come into play.
Although I feel that the BoE have backed themselves into a corner, if people are paying down their debts then I think it will be a good thing for the UK's economic future, so long as loose lending doesn't make a return, and people don't start to take on large amounts of credit once again. I think there is a danger that a signal is being sent out to the next generation of borrowers - "don't worry about taking on large debts, the BoE will see you alright". It may be the case that if we have another credit boom, there may not be such a good safety net in place.
I'll say the base rate will be 0.5% at the end of 2012, with a small chance of 0.75%.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
Something tells me to go for 0.750
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Something tells me to go for 0.75
I hope you're right as that would mean a better than expected recovery is underway, with wage growth driving up the MPC's inflation expectations.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »I hope you're right as that would mean a better than expected recovery is underway, with wage growth driving up the MPC's inflation expectations.
So, is that the only reason that the rates would rise ?30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
It seems that the consensus thus far is that BoE rates will be unmoved in 2012, which will be a bonus for those folk on BoE tracker mortgages.0
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So, is that the only reason that the rates would rise ?
Yes.
When the MPC see some evidence of demand-pull inflation, rates will rise.
We've already seen they'll happily ignore inflation due to one-off events like imported energy costs, currency devaluation and tax rises.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
I believe that wage inflation will be the trigger that drives up interest rates this year. It is not related to recovery in the economy, but I suspect that public tolerance of squeezed household income is nearing an end.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Yes.
When the MPC see some evidence of demand-pull inflation, rates will rise.
We've already seen they'll happily ignore inflation due to one-off events like imported energy costs, currency devaluation and tax rises.
With increasing pay deals I predict the base rate to be 1.5% by the year end, and then continuing to rise rapidly the following year."When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty." - Thomas Jefferson0
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