What happens to property bears when they buy?

Graham_Devon

If you want a serious answer to the question...it's only since the crisis that I have seen the damage caused by the boom, and concluded in my own mind it could never carry on and we were in serious doo-doo.

I then came to this part of the forum and started taking things in, and took my position based on what was shown and presented to me, either by forum posters, the news, news articles etc.

When I bought my house, I took the decision not to buy into a huge mortgage at a well inflated salary level. However, bar having the pen in my hand to sign, I was ready to go and could be sitting in my (now 5 year old) swish apartment. In hindsight, I probably wouldn't still be living in it, and if I was I'd be trying to turn my last penny into 2 pennies. It was totally unaffordable in reality, but on paper, was made to look affordable....especially for the first 5 years. Anything after that was swept well and truly under the carpet as there wasn't a problem, I could just re-mortgage my interest only 5 year fix, and as if by magic, everything would become affordable again.

So I had taken the view in early 2006 that property prices were too high and needed to fall, but I had to buy, or rent. I took the option of buying a stake on a repayment basis. For all the downfalls, it's probably ended up the better decision, looking at what rents are doing and looking at how the "you just remortgage" theory would have actually panned out.

So yer, I suppose I was "aware" property was too highly priced, and took my own decision (ignoring my parents and my mortgage advisor) to start low and save for better later. I wasn't aware full on turmoil was just around the corner. So I have remianed "bearish" on the economy and house prices, even though I bought in.

nollag2006

What happens to them?

They go very quiet indeed, and are never heard of on this forum.

Just look at CarolT, !!!!!!?, and Mr Broderick. All have bought, and moved on. Even brit1234 is finally coming around to the idea of buying in the next 12 months.

The only bear I know that has bought and still claims a property crash is coming is MSW of Moneyweek. It's obviously a great way to sell newspapers

RenovationMan

geneer wrote: »

Lordy. You might as well have posted this RM.



Doesn't take freud to figure out whats eating at you.

Nah, I'll post this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtS6HQH3C4M&feature=youtu.be

homelessskilledworker

RenovationMan wrote: »

I've not been on this site as long as some and so I was wondering what happened to property bears on here once they bought? Do they continue to cheerlead the crash as wholeheartedly when it's costing them money as they did when it was saving them money? Or do they become Bulls?

I bought originally in 1995 and so I only ever saw HPI. Since 2007 we have seen prices on a downward cycle but I'm pretty laid back because I'm not losing any actual money, only HPI gained over a decade with little or no effort. However, if I had to scrimp and save for several years in order to save for a deposit to buy a house, only to see the deposit whittle away due to house price deflation, I doubt I would be so relaxed.

Do the bears continue to be bearish, or do they just fade away? I know we have some home-owning bears on the forum, but these seem almost exclusively to be people who bought before the boom and, like myself, are not worried about a bit of erosion to their unworked for HPI.

I guess the main question is whether the newly FTB bears feel outside the 'gang' because no one really believes that they are cheerleading falls after they have bought. Do they then just disappear?

This particular bear will not give a hoot if property prices never go up again once I get another house, and I swear on that.
I would love the idea of every property in the UK being purchased by people just driven by wanting a home. I now it will never happen but I do hope we go more that way.

As soon as you introduce the investment angle into buying property then we are !!!!!!ed, problems arise. The only reason IMO that we are building a bigger national debt by the day is to keep a asset bubble afloat.

RenovationMan

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

This particular bear will not give a hoot if property prices never go up again once I get another house, and I swear on that.
I would love the idea of every property in the UK being purchased by people just driven by wanting a home. I now it will never happen but I do hope we go more that way.

As soon as you introduce the investment angle into buying property then we are !!!!!!ed, problems arise. The only reason IMO that we are building a bigger national debt by the day is to keep a asset bubble afloat.

I'm also not fussed if they never go up, I have proven many times that ordinary people like myself have suffered not gained from HPI.

However, what if they go down after you have bought and you end up in Neg Equ? Philosphically, will you still be rooting for lower house prices even if it wipes out your hard earned deposit and prevents you moving on?

geneer

RenovationMan wrote: »

Nah, I'll post this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtS6HQH3C4M&feature=youtu.be

Nice to see Heathcote123/Fubra90 has taken the news on the chin like a man.

Cleaver

RenovationMan wrote: »

I've not been on this site as long as some and so I was wondering what happened to property bears on here once they bought? Do they continue to cheerlead the crash as wholeheartedly when it's costing them money as they did when it was saving them money? Or do they become Bulls?

If you think a market will rise then you're bullish, if you think it will drop then you're bearish. It matters not a jot whether you are bought in to that market or not.

For example, I own a house and I am bearish about the housing market over the next year. If I sold my house tomorrow I'd still have the same opinion and if I bought another house tomorrow I'd still have the same opinion.

robmatic

Well, I bought last year, after delaying my purchase for a couple of years, and I'm expecting prices to go down. However, according to Geneer this makes me a bull so I can't really help with your question!

RenovationMan

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you want a serious answer to the question...it's only since the crisis that I have seen the damage caused by the boom, and concluded in my own mind it could never carry on and we were in serious doo-doo.

You know GD, you're the only bear I really believe has stuck to his principles. I think that's what I liked about you when I first joined this site.

Contrast your attitude to geneers, who is already revelling in his HPI since (allegedly) buying in 2009:

geneer wrote: »

Oh and don't forget your 100's of Jibes about house prices in Edinburgh had increased throughout the last couple of years. Yeah, I was totally gutted at that news.

So much for all those years of posts about how HPI was evil and damaged families and how the country needs a correction. He'll be stood at dinner parties next with a glass of wine talking about how HPI is increasing his wealth.

Anyway, I think I have my answer. Once a bear buys he turns into a Bull, either secretly, or like our friend geneer, publically. The allure of HPI is like a drug to some people.

lostinrates

I'm bearish on property prices, but looked and bought with dh during the lull. we looked at LOTS and looked with the consideration it had to be somewhere we would be prepared to stay in long term if not forever because we still feel property may drop again.

we saw what we could borrow fall, which was interesting: manyt of the properties we were looking at were much the same in the lower price bracket! We also bought not wanting to overextend....(we didn't maximise what we could borrow) and have made sure that our mortgage payments can be met if dh has a period of unemployment.

Our house was a white elephant and a bargain both. There are unlimited sums one can sink into a renovation project, and separating value from want and then again from what is simply lily guilding is a problem. Remaining in a situation where financially we can leave if we want is interesting: a lot of the things we want are not value adding particularly.

ATM we do not plan to sell in the near future. we have discussed very seriously relocating recently, and dh felt his attachment to this house was not something he'd give up easily and I wouldn't want to go a: before dh was certain it was a long term move, or b: at this exciting stage in renovation, though we have been advised its a good stage to go: when full planning is through (including potential to create two self contained detached units and extend this one), and the bills are recouped. Our house was half the priced of our nearest (completed) comparable on the market, (partly because, I think we were not bullish when we bought and partly because of structural issues that make it -still- an unmortgagable possibility for those without substantial deposit, but those will be totally rectified in spring, but will certainly leave a legacy of some impact on value or at least marketability) but I would not be surprised if that situation were to change at some point in the project not too far way...for me the question will be whether we notice that point at the time. If we stay it will never have been an issue and if we go it could be a very important point to recognise.