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Debate House Prices
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Looks like my prediction of a tougher 2012 is becoming mainstream
Comments
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shortchanged wrote: »Well if mortgage lending remains sensible (pre boom levels) added to eventual interest rate rises I don't really see house prices going up. As long as banks don't open the floodgates and mess things up again then over time hopefully we will see prices come back in line more with earnings, not the ridiculous situations for example where we have people earning £20,000 and having £100,000+ mortgages etc, etc.
The ball is in the lenders court, and hopefully they will learn from previous mistakes and keep a tight, sensible lid on lending now and in the future.
You're quoting extremes and trying to make general cases out of them. Yes, a few high multiples were issued and yes some people overrepresented income to be able to buy, but that is not the general case.
It's not clear at all that lenders would consider that they made a mistake by lending when loans are being repaid by and large, but apart from a small amount of froth on the top which was more than removed by the recession, price rises come from the supply shortfall.
A couple with salaries in the upper 70% of income who are able to buy at all can easily afford a house on a traditional multiple. As supply is outstripped by demand, that 70% reduces, and there is also competition from landlords. We're currently in a stalemate, but we're in a period of very low confidence generally and when lending is very constrained. When that shifts, which it will, prices will start rising again. If the euro doesn't collapse, it's probable that that will happen next year, because everyone will start to feel that things are more hopeful. We've been on the edge of the precipice, as we draw away from it we'll start feeling safer.
The fact that prices are outstripping single person average incomes is an interesting observation, but an irrelevant one, because that is not what is driving the market. You may not like that on a socio-philosophical level, but that is what is happening. It's just like comparing the value of houses to the value of Mars Bars, gives an interesting relative measure, but not something you can actually use.0 -
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The fact that prices are outstripping single person average incomes is an interesting observation, but an irrelevant one, because that is not what is driving the market. You may not like that on a socio-philosophical level, but that is what is happening. It's just like comparing the value of houses to the value of Mars Bars, gives an interesting relative measure, but not something you can actually use.
Say that again. :huh:.
I'm talking about single, joint mortgages the whole shebang.
I know you like to deny this occured to any level of significance but how do you explain then julieq why house prices rose so dramatically in the previous decade?0 -
Well he posted an argument which referred to a quote, which you then removed lines from and asked how he reached his conclusion. Which is pretty pathetic by any standards.
If the banking sector is "on the mend" then it will lend more. So it's reasonable to conclude that some of that will be lent to homebuyers.
If you don't think that's true, then let's have your arguments instead of dumb ad hominems. But it seems reasonable to me. And you might also ponder the reports that sales volumes are rising at the moment, which is an indication of precisely the same thing. Small increments, but upwards pressure.
Pathetic? Umm how? He saw some banker on the news saying a certian bank was getting better (a bank which was bailed out to the tune of tens of billions) and somehow he thinks 'mortgage rationing' will end.
It was ONE bank! Not the whole banking industry. Take off your blinkers0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/21/uk-property-britain-poll-idUKTRE7BK17020111221
Please, if anyone can see anyway around there not being a really nasty 2012 I would like to know. Saying it is going to be a great 2012 just because it will be does not count:)
Well personally speaking (touch wood) it looks pretty rosy, I got a 20% pay increase last week, the mortgage will be paid off by the summer and my wife will finish her consultancy contract meaning she will be able to chill out and be much more fun to live with.
The ski trip is all booked and we're planning on doing a few track days in the new motor in the spring. May get round to starting a family next year too - which will be fun
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Other than that it's all sh*t though. Obviously.Go round the green binbags. Turn right at the mouldy George Elliot, forward, forward, and turn left....at the dead badger0 -
Well personally speaking (touch wood) it looks pretty rosy, I got a 20% pay increase last week, the mortgage will be paid off by the summer and my wife will finish her consultancy contract meaning she will be able to chill out and be much more fun to live with.
The ski trip is all booked and we're planning on doing a few track days in the new motor in the spring. May get round to starting a family next year too - which will be fun.
Other than that it's all sh*t though. Obviously.
Sounds good, congrats on the impending Mortgage Freedom.
Similar sort of rosy 2012 expected at the RM household. We are looking at overpaying our mortgage by a further £20k, my company has a new project starting that looks really interesting, our eldest will be doing her GCSEs and will be going to 6th form, all good stuff. 0 -
RenovationMan wrote: »Sounds good, congrats on the impending Mortgage Freedom.
Similar sort of rosy 2012 expected at the RM household. We are looking at overpaying our mortgage by a further £20k, my company has a new project starting that looks really interesting, our eldest will be doing her GCSEs and will be going to 6th form, all good stuff.
Hurrah! - Mutual pats on the back all round!
I know it's boastful but hey, at least it's not yet more doom and gloom eh?Go round the green binbags. Turn right at the mouldy George Elliot, forward, forward, and turn left....at the dead badger0 -
Hurrah! - Mutual pats on the back all round!
I know it's boastful but hey, at least it's not yet more doom and gloom eh?
Just wait till you hear the little patter of the great drains on your resources then.
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homelessskilledworker wrote: »
Please, if anyone can see anyway around there not being a really nasty 2012 I would like to know.
''apply within''0 -
shortchanged wrote: »Just wait till you hear the little patter of the great drains on your resources then.
Yes indeed - I hear the little tykes can be pricey!Go round the green binbags. Turn right at the mouldy George Elliot, forward, forward, and turn left....at the dead badger0
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