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Rightmove... December -2.7%
homelessskilledworker
Posts: 1,664 Forumite
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2011/12/december-2011.pdf
Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove explains: “The market fragmentation caused by the credit crunch
means that success in selling now requires a very careful and complex local market analysis. As always it
involves location, but the number of mortgage-ready buyers you can attract is now dictated by the type and
size of property that you are selling. With all but the most appealing properties, pitching at too high a price
and waiting for offers is a route to stagnation. Four years of increasingly dire economic news have also
trained consumers’ brains to look for stand-out value from day one of marketing. Welcome to the complex
world of your very own local ‘micro-market’”.
[FONT=Calibri,Bold][FONT=Calibri,Bold]
Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove explains: “The market fragmentation caused by the credit crunch
means that success in selling now requires a very careful and complex local market analysis. As always it
involves location, but the number of mortgage-ready buyers you can attract is now dictated by the type and
size of property that you are selling. With all but the most appealing properties, pitching at too high a price
and waiting for offers is a route to stagnation. Four years of increasingly dire economic news have also
trained consumers’ brains to look for stand-out value from day one of marketing. Welcome to the complex
world of your very own local ‘micro-market’”.
Selling in 2012?
[/FONT][/FONT]
As well as being a marketing channel, estate agents must be a seller’s most trusted advisor, whose expertise
will give them the competitive edge needed to attract what buyers there are in their local marketplace. They
must advise on what buyers are looking for in terms of accommodation, character, location and price, and
whether a seller’s property matches those criteria. In a market where buyers are driven to hunt for value, the
surest way to sell a standard-sounding property is to make the price well below the standard. That is a
financially painful step for many sellers, and a step that is not possible for those on the borders of negative
equity or who need a large deposit to fund their planned move.
Shipside adds: “In the volume market of 2007 an average property at an average price had a good chance of
selling. In 2012 average on any count will not be good enoughwill give them the competitive edge needed to attract what buyers there are in their local marketplace. They
must advise on what buyers are looking for in terms of accommodation, character, location and price, and
whether a seller’s property matches those criteria. In a market where buyers are driven to hunt for value, the
surest way to sell a standard-sounding property is to make the price well below the standard. That is a
financially painful step for many sellers, and a step that is not possible for those on the borders of negative
equity or who need a large deposit to fund their planned move.
Shipside adds: “In the volume market of 2007 an average property at an average price had a good chance of
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Comments
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Rightmove December: +1.5% YoY, -2.7% MoM.
A decent result for the year, all things considered.
As for 2012, here's what they expect:
"New sellers’ average asking prices will rise by circa 2%, though this national average will vary in the many local micro-markets.
We expect the number of properties coming to market to be marginally below the 1.24 million recorded in 2011. This anticipated decline reflects the fall-off in sellers coming to market seen by Rightmove in recent months. It means that new seller numbers will be about a third down on the pre-credit crunch levels in 2007.
The shortage of new sellers in some locations, and improving investor yields on rental properties, will help underpin prices and stave off a price collapse except in exceptionally adverse market conditions. Although we forecast that the number of forced sales will increase due to the economic stress testing home owners’ finances, continued lender forbearance will keep repossessions to below 40,000 and this in turn will limit wider market price falls.
Mortgage availability will remain difficult as lenders continue to rebuild their balance sheets and cherry-pick the most creditworthy borrowers. This practice will continue to discriminate against first-time buyers who are struggling to raise the necessary deposits."
SO more of the same then....
Few forced sales, stable prices, low rates to continue, landlords being enriched by 'forced renters', and mortgage rationing preventing more potential FTB-s from buying than high house prices ever did.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hamish, you know I disagree with some of your points but sometimes you make sense, however saying things like "landlords enriched by forced renters" put you firmly in the Mr Ree/Sibley category (i.e. a pair of kn0bs) which is not a good place...0
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When last months fall was -3.1% I suggested that nobody make a big deal of it, this month I suggest that maybe it is time for some to get a litle twitchy.
I am getting the feeling that those disillusioned sellers that were in denial are coming around to the fact the conditions pre 2007 are never coming back, and that 2012 is looking to be a very nasty year, even unforgiving.
The sensible ones will be biting the bullet and selling at discount, while there will still be some in complete denial, you see those types posting here all the time.
The only thing that has halted the property market up these past few years were greedy sellers, they could well be waking up now. Still early days but if we get another month or two with falls such as these then it is GAME ON!!0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »When last months fall was -3.1% I suggested that nobody make a big deal of it, this month I suggest that maybe it is time for some to get a litle twitchy.
Still early days but if we get another month or two with falls such as these then it is GAME ON!!
You need to remember that Rightmove do not seasonally adjust asking prices. This causes the bears to become a tad over-excited at this time of year.
Same thing happened last year with November at -3.0% and December at - 3.2%. In january you'll see these figures reversed
The important figure is the YoY, which is in line with other indices.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
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You need to remember that Rightmove do not seasonally adjust asking prices. This causes the bears to become a tad over-excited at this time of year.
Same thing happened last year with November at -3.0% and December at - 3.2%. In january you'll see these figures reversed
The important figure is the YoY, which is in line with other indices.
I think I have made the same point myself, but now that we have had a big fall in november and december, if we get some nasty falls in january and february leading into spring then I think we will then be looking at a new phase in sentiment. And should we get a change in seller/buyer sentiment along with more poor economic data then I am certain that the UK property market will tank.
The UK bond market is worth keeping an eye on at the moment, there is more risk on the upside that mortgage rates will rise at the moment IMO.0 -
december is a great time on this forum. We always get 'Next Year is the big crash' Love it!0
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december is a great time on this forum. We always get 'Next Year is the big crash' Love it!
Well you little bunch of Bull warriors huddle up together in a cosy little bundle and keep reassuring and cuddling each other with your thank you's:)
You Guys know it's coming, and I would be inclined to feel more pity for you when it does arrive if you were all not so cocky.0 -
homelessskilledworker wrote: »Well you little bunch of Bull warriors huddle up together in a cosy little bundle and keep reassuring and cuddling each other with your thank you's:)
You Guys know it's coming, and I would be inclined to feel more pity for you when it does arrive if you were all not so cocky.
I really hope it is coming, and if it does I will drive to wherever you are in the country and buy you a slap up meal and drinks all night - because I for one will be ceberating with you.0 -
Be honest.
Nobody knows what's going to happen with the housing market. Those that have to sell will sell or be repossessed, those that don't will stay put. Not every homeowner has bought their place with a view to making a quick killing. That is something which has only been around for the last decade or so. Many people bought a home, have lived in it for many years & are not going to give it away just because it suits the HPC crowd. They'll wait until there is more certainty in the market.
I really can't see the point in keep arguing over crystal ball economics.0
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