Can we take the Nationwide seriously?

macaque_2

julieq wrote: »

I'm going to regret this, but Geneer, let me try explaining this to you one more time.

The absolute measurements for LR and NW correlate quite closely to within a small margin of error.

Taking a spot comparison of two points subject to random noise multiplies the noise. That's why YoY and MoM figures aren't that useful, and a better comparison is a rolling average or simply eyeballing the resultant graph to discern the trend.

The NW shows a rise because it was reading low a year ago (random noise). It has higher volatility than the LR because each individual transaction carries proportionately more weight. That doesn't mean it is less accurate, it simply records what it records.

As the article you helpfully posted yesterday (but don't appear to actually have understood) pointed out, to get an overall picture you have to consider all of the data together. And the picture that emerges is what it has been for some time, which is stagnation with slight oscillations.

I have no idea why you're comparing YoY figures from either index and wanting them to correlate, but just look at the chuffing graph: it's more or less identical. What's the problem exactly?

Given the close correlation between NW and LR on an absolute basis, there's no reason at all to discount NW. But then we're into Macaque's bizarre fantasy that they're trying to talk up the market fraudulently, when for some reason they didn't seem to find that necessary when they were reading lower than the LR, and they're showing the same numbers essentially as the LR anyway.

Julie

I hope you have the grace to blush when you post nonsense like this. No one can talk the market up. We are a chronically indebted country trying to avert a major economic crisis. The best that vested interests can hope for is to delay or avert the same property bear cycles that have hit many other countries in recent years.

Are you seriously trying to suggest that this (published on a mortgage website) is not 24 carat spin aimed at calming nerves:

He said: "With the UK economic recovery expected to remain sluggish well into 2012, house price growth is likely to remain soft, with prices moving sideways or drifting modestly lower over the next twelve months". http://www.mortgages.co.uk/news/2011/Nov/surprise-as-typical-house-rises-in-value-by-148-in-november.html

Your patronising 'put downs' may put some people off but not everyone.

julieq

Macaque, your desperation is touching, but it remains the case that the NW figures correlate very closely with the LR. Where they vary they've been much lower in the recent past.

Really it's pathetic to argue that this is misreporting of data to talk the market up. There's no reason for them to do that - it's exactly the wrong thing for a lender to do anyway because they'd be overvaluing their collateral and INCREASING their risk by lending more against false valuations.

Here we have data which basically confirms the LR numbers within a small error. You don't like it because it shows a YoY rise through random noise, but that doesn't mean it's invented. In 12 months the situation could well be the other way round.

And you're so dreadfully parochial anyway. Don't you think that the same techniques could have been tried in the US? Or in Eire? The difference is that in those countries there isn't a supply/demand imbalance to shore up the market.

Why would *I* blush, anyway? I'm not the president of the 70% club, and I haven't been wrong time after time with increasingly desperate predictions of falls, recalibration of the definition of a crash, and so on. If anyone should be glowing like a beetroot, it's you.

andybenw

Macaque

I'm not saying there is not going to be a crash.

In fact if the euro collapses I think we will see one, albeit not as large as most bears predict. By the way a crash would suit me fine, I'm only 40, wish to see some progression up the housing ladder and have plans to buy a BTL.

I have to ask you though. When you are presented with facts (eg graphs showing nationwide indice correlating with land registry or figures showing the housing market at present stagnating) do you wish to brush these facts off as talking the market up??

nembot

Gotta go with geneer here, you know global financial crisis, UK just about hanging onto it's credit rating, historically low interest rates in place... for lets bloody face it, stop a major financial catastrophe (when we can't operate at 4%, something is really f'ked up).

Unemployment up, debt levels up, strikes like we've never seen for generations and there's still some f'kin idiots on here suggesting things are A OK...

Yes, that's directed at people like Julieq, Mr Ree, Sobley, nollag and anyone else stupid enough to think the big picture doesn't matter to them or anyone else.

Rant over...till next time...

julieq

Serial pessimist Nembot innit

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=20815265&postcount=39

julieq

This is quite a good one too.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=20954499&postcount=80

Note comment at the end.

julieq

And this one

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=23492845&postcount=2815

Spot the theme?

julieq

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=23948427&postcount=53

bumpity bump

julieq

If anything it's more fun doing this with Macaque's pearls of wisdom.

Marvel at his insights into the rental sector here

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=14744631&postcount=34

julieq

And one of the ALL TIME CLASSICS

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/15828827#Comment_15828827

Incidentally, I strongly recommend accompanying this passage through the history of total and utter wrong with this

http://soundcloud.com/frankiedriscoll/secrets-of-the-interior

rather marvellous