Can we take the Nationwide seriously?

macaque_2

Sounds positive:

New data from Nationwide has shown that house prices have increased by 0.4 per cent in November, meaning they are now 1.6 per cent higher than a year ago at £165,798.

If I was a buyer, it would be this bit that would interest me:

However, Nationwide's figures come just a day after Land Registry's House Price Index for October showed property costs to have decreased by 3.2 per cent in a year, with its average coming out at £159,999.
Nicholas Ayre, director of the home buying agency Home Fusion, said the new Nationwide data "is about as misleading as it gets".
He claimed the Land Registry study is "far more accurate", with Nationwide's bearing "scant resemblance to reality".

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/mortgages/2011/11/29/nationwide-reports-uk-house-prices-creep-upwards

Really2

LR and NW look fairly similar when you take in to account the 2-3 moth lag.

Halifax looks like the last Turkey in Sainsburys most of the time.

In the end they all make up the same data and get to a similar point YoY.

I believe it becomes more credible when negative though.;)

StevieJ

The Land Registry may be accurate for August but it is three to four months out of date.

Nicholas Ayre, director of the home buying agency Home Fusion, said the new Nationwide data "is about as misleading as it gets".
He claimed the Land Registry study is "far more accurate", with Nationwide's bearing "scant resemblance to reality".

purch

I stopped taking Nationwide seriously once Frank Bough was revealed a sex perv.....:eek:

wotsthat

We'll just have to resort to round my way data collections.

Round my way* I've seen a number of houses with sold signs in the last few weeks. I'd contend that there have been more in the last few weeks than the last six months. In fact I saw a new one yesterday. I'll report back when sold prices are available.

* round my way is a 600m walk to the park and back in the morning with the dog.

If anyone could comment on areas that aren't covered by my dog walking maybe we could collate and analyse - after all that Nationwide data is pretty much made up.

chewmylegoff

personally i only take data seriously if it backs up my personal rhetoric (formed whilst having a dump, obviously).

andybenw

Nationwide/Halifax and Land Registry are only reporting their figures. They are not bulls or bears mysteriously trying to cloak their figures to suit their purpose. Yes we get seasonal adjustment, but remember we had this through 12 years of price rises also.

It should be obvious that the Land Registry as a more comprehensive report will be the most accurate, but the problem with it is that it is a lagging index.

I believe it is correct that the Land Registry does not include auctioned or repossesed properties which may skew the figures slightly, but then again it is pretty obvious that Nationwide/Halifax will not be carrying many of these on their books.

Personally I take all the 'averages' as a pinch of salt and look at the local figures for which the land registry breakdown is quite good. But it does lag.

abaxas

They are all !!!!

julieq

The YoY disparity is pretty obviously because the Nationwide was showing lower than the LR a year ago.

The prices correlate very closely between the two indices, but NW is obviously going to be more volatile because of lower included transactions. The LR numbers will be more heavily damped by averaging. Neither YoY or MoM numbers are very useful in isolation, but the trends are interesting - basically oscillations.

I don't see why you'd lose confidence in either set of numbers as they're basically the same. The Halifax is the one looking dubious if anything. You'd certainly want to insist your buyer had a nationwide mortgage on this evidence...

macaque_2

andybenw wrote: »

Nationwide/Halifax and Land Registry are only reporting their figures. They are not bulls or bears mysteriously trying to cloak their figures to suit their purpose. Yes we get seasonal adjustment, but remember we had this through 12 years of price rises also.

If housing market takes a tumble, the Nationwide will be up to their eyebrows in bad debt. Therefore I don't agree with your comments about their neutrality on the bear/bull issue. Remember, housing stats are easy to manipulate (seasonal adjustments, property size, type location, actual selling price etc). This is how Nationwide commented on their own figures:

House prices rose 0.4 percent from October on a seasonally adjusted basis, their third straight monthly increase, a Nationwide survey showed. Prices were 1.6 percent higher than a year ago, beating a forecast 1.3 percent increase but the increase highlighted a lack of housing supply rather than any real pick-up in demand, Nationwide said. The lender said prices were likely to be stagnant or fall slightly in the next 12 months. "House prices have remained surprisingly resilient in recent months, despite the deterioration in the economic outlook. But, with the UK economic recovery expected to remain sluggish well into 2012, house price growth is likely to remain soft, with prices moving sideways or drifting modestly lower over the next 12 months," said Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner. http://uk.news.yahoo.com/house-prices-rise-third-straight-month-nov-nationwide-070345257.html

Why did it need someone else to say this:

'The latest set of Nationwide house price data is about as misleading as it gets,' says Nicholas Ayre, director of home buying agency Home Fusion.

Or this:

'Market and consumer sentiment have weakened quite dramatically since the late summer,' says Lucy Pendleton, managing director of estate agent James Pendleton.

http://www.moneyobserver.com/news/11-11-29/disagreement-surrounding-rising-house-price-data

If you honestly believe that the Nationwide don't have the motivation or means to put a positive spin on the numbers I think you are kidding yourself.

RenovationMan

macaque wrote: »

Can we take the Nationwide seriously?

I don't understand why anyone takes any index seriously. What's the point of all this discussion about the various indexes unless someone is considering buying an average priced house in the small town of averageville.

It never ceases to surprise me when I see the reams of chatter about the fluctuations of a non-existent average house in a non existent average town. My view has consistently been that if you are actively looking for a house then become an expert in your area, get on friendly terms with local estate agents and make sure they know that you are serious, get your finances in place so that you can move quickly if that 'never to be repeated' deal comes up.