Nationwide November +0.4% MOM +1.6% YOY

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

LR doesn't capture all sales.

Figures from the Land Registry are more complete. The agency captures all sales

I'm guessing your labouring some minor pedantic point with little relevance or importance.

The Halifax, the UK's biggest mortgage provider, samples roughly 13,500 properties per month, just over 10pc of the market for house sales. Nationwide does not reveal its figure, so we can assume it is considerably smaller.

Pimperne1

geneer wrote: »

I'm guessing your labouring some minor pedantic point with little relevance or importance.

http://www.landreg.gov.uk/FAQs/house-price-index/how-many-properties-are-compared

The HPI is calculated by using Land Registry's own 'Price Paid Dataset'. This is a record of all residential property transactions made in England and Wales since January 1995. At present it contains details on over 15 million sales. Of these, just over five million are identifiable matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression analysis used to compile the index.

geneer

Yep. Thought so.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

geneer wrote: »

I'm guessing your labouring some minor pedantic point with little relevance or importance.

Wow....

Just...... wow.

Sibley

Houses were well overpriced back in 2006/07, but apart from a sharp correction straight after the peak, what has happened is the equivalent of what a bus does when it's running ahead of schedule. Rather than slam the vehicle into reverse and head back down the road in a blaze of horns and screeching tyres, it's pulled over to a bus stop and is just sitting there waiting for the clock to catch up. So for the next 5 years, no significant rises, inflation chomping into the "real price" of housing, but no nominal falls. A £200K house today won't be out of whack 10% in either direction in 5 years time I reckon.

I'd go along with this.

What I will say it that 90% of home owners will sit it out until prices rise.

homelessskilledworker

Sibley wrote: »

I'd go along with this.

What I will say it that 90% of home owners will sit it out until prices rise.

Some of the replies in this thread are just incredible and show complete ignorance and in a lot of cases complete financial ignorance as in the case of Julie, the very same Julie that accuses another poster of the same thing.
I am sorry to single you out Sibley, but at least your replies are so dumb along with ignorant that they tend to put a smile on my face.

Posters like Julie just are just so disingenous and give off a air of butter never melting in her mouth, my favourite of hers in this thread is that "she really does not care what house prices do", HOGWASH.
Anyway thats enough of her, waste of space, lets get back to REAL life and whats really happening out there.

Did any of you 24/7 Bull posters turn the news on yesterday, are you totally blind. Yesterday was really the official opening of the real recession/depression/hard times, no matter what people have been saying since 2007, nothing has happened in the way of belt tightening since yesterday and forwards. the past few years have been nothing but avoidance measures.

A house is nothing but an asset, and in these hard times assets get sold off to pay for food on the table. People ramping and claiming that prices will never fall will be kicking themselves in the not to distant future when you will not be able to sell a house at 30% below todays asking prices.

Specualtive property buying and the worshipping of property is from today DEAD.

System

Foxy I thought you were due another account now. Wife stolen that too or something?

julieq

OK, so you sell off your asset to pay for food on the table.

Where do you live?

That is the issue here, and it is why prices here have stayed stable or risen when in countries like Eire or the US they have fallen, DESPITE similar underlying circumstances. We don't have enough homes for the rate of household creation.

You can declare speculation in property dead from your point of view at the base of the ladder until you're blue in the face, but for the people on the upper half, it's perfectly viable. And you don't need more than that to drive a market into which you have a net annual shortfall running into the upper tens of thousands of homes.

This is a very simple message, and the penny will eventually drop. It's been amusing to see the vehemence with which the bears want to find reasons to reject the NW figures - essentially identical to within a small margin to the LR - because they are still not seeing the sustained drops they expect. If you want prices to moderate for everyone, you have to build more houses. Economic doom and gloom or even forced sales won't do it for you, that just concentrates dwindling supply at the top of the food chain and makes life harder - higher rents, more multiple occupation - for those at the bottom. We've had the worst banking crisis in history followed by an enormous sovereign debt crisis, and prices have (to quote the NW) remained resilient. That really ought to tell you something.

You may not like that, but to characterise a perfectly reasonable and conventional analysis as financial ignorance is beyond laughable. To get to any significant price falls, you somehow have to remove the need for housing from hundreds of thousands of people. Things may be grim, but we're not exactly into the Rapture yet.

And why the hell should I care what my house is worth? I come out of here feet first. At that time, the house will be worth to my estate whatever the price of one house is worth, which will help my children and probably the taxman. It's utterly unimportant to me personally.

What is more important - because I want my company to grow and to employ more people - is that the economy doesn't crash and burn which is quite possible if there was a massive reduction in house prices below the value of loans, which would require banks to recapitalise further and reduce lending to businesses. I'm perfectly happy with stagnation or even modest falls in values. The idea that tanking the economy helps those without houses is cloud cuckoo land stuff. In fact FTBs are in a worse situation now than they were at the height of the boom even though prices are lower, and if you make the economy worse things get progressively more difficult.

As to Graham, well the point about your 7.5% has clouded the points that (1) low rates have been to you a windfall, not a lifesaver, and (2) low rates have also increased inflation which are the causes of some if not all of your increased costs. So assuming all that waffle about not being a debt junky so you didn't check rates wasn't true, and that your later statement that you had checked rates anyway is the correct one, then that's fine - apologies, but we can only work sequentially through your utterances. Really does show how shared ownership is a bad deal for the less well off, bearing in mind someone owning your entire house on a conventional basis would have been paying the same or slightly more that you do for half of it.

andybenw

geneer wrote: »

Thats nice dear.

You're right of course. Nationwide reports a 1.6% YOY increase, whilst Land reg reports a -3.2% YOY fall.
Theres only about 5% between them.
Inconsequential.

Of course Nationwide captures <10% of mortgage approvals.
Whilst Land Reg captures ALL SALES.
So clearly they're just as reliable.

I'm sure its just a matter of lag. Though of course NW has reported no more than -1.3% YOY in the last 12 months.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Try this link and actually look at how closely the indices correlate.

http://www.propertyinvestmentproject.co.uk/property-statistics/houseprices.php

ukcarper

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Some of the replies in this thread are just incredible and show complete ignorance and in a lot of cases complete financial ignorance as in the case of Julie, the very same Julie that accuses another poster of the same thing.
I am sorry to single you out Sibley, but at least your replies are so dumb along with ignorant that they tend to put a smile on my face.

Posters like Julie just are just so disingenous and give off a air of butter never melting in her mouth, my favourite of hers in this thread is that "she really does not care what house prices do", HOGWASH.
Anyway thats enough of her, waste of space, lets get back to REAL life and whats really happening out there.

Did any of you 24/7 Bull posters turn the news on yesterday, are you totally blind. Yesterday was really the official opening of the real recession/depression/hard times, no matter what people have been saying since 2007, nothing has happened in the way of belt tightening since yesterday and forwards. the past few years have been nothing but avoidance measures.

A house is nothing but an asset, and in these hard times assets get sold off to pay for food on the table. People ramping and claiming that prices will never fall will be kicking themselves in the not to distant future when you will not be able to sell a house at 30% below todays asking prices.

Specualtive property buying and the worshipping of property is from today DEAD.

Do you really believe that?