Rightmove Nov + 1.2% YoY, -3.1% MoM

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

, NOBODY IS BUYING.

Actually, according to HMRC, around 70,000 houses a month are sold.

Lower than the ideal, but clearly enough for prices to have remained stable over the last year nationally.

What you need to worry about Hamish is the first desperate sellers which will follow before long, then a trend will follow.

What the bears need to fear is a rapid ending of the credit crunch, which just will not happen in my opinion.

Neither is very likely to happen.

Stagnation, on a national basis, is the order of the day for some time to come. Prices up north will do worse than prices down south, but as always most people in most places will see very little if any change to prices in their local area.

shortchanged_2

MrRee wrote: »

Wow, just what I have seen about here ..... nothing coming to the market, that which does is sold within hours ... maybe minutes in some cases!

There are buyers aplenty - but nothing to buy .... buyers get desperate and asking prices are offered as soon as anything appears on the market.

Those on HPC must be sobbing all over their months rent ...... hilarious!!

:rotfl:

Make your mind up MrRee. I thought everything was like the boom times where you are, which would mean plenty of supply.

So now all of a sudden it's nothing coming on the market.

I seem to remember you saying only a couple of days ago that all you could see around you was sold signs. :rotfl:

Pimperne1

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And before anyone gets too excited, last November was -3.2%, so slightly better than the same month last year and still up year on year.

More interestingly, supply is absolutely falling off a cliff, with new listings down a staggering 13% MoM and 11% YoY.

Looks like the shortage of houses on the market is about to get brutal.

Previous figures pinched from elsewhere:

November 2010: -3.2% (October: +3.1%)
November 2009: -1.6% (October: +2.8%)
November 2008: -2.9% (October: +1.0%)
November 2007: -0.7% (October: +2.7%)

Amusingly, for me anyway, two of the bears over on HPC who have been members since early 2007 and who have posted 6k and 7k times have made the following comments:

Down 3.1%? Let's hope this really is the start of the next leg down.

I know it's only asking prices, but I've been waiting too long for an occasion to use this again. (followed by wine smiley).

MrRee_2

You must feel for the sorry, sad, souls on HPC .... they sold their families down the river of hope and the boat has sunk.

Prices remain resilient - that's selling prices - asking prices are just falling to meet the increasing actual sold price.

In the South, at least, the worst is well over ... the North will feel this confidence during the Spring of 2012. Then we shall get growth moving once more.

DaddyBear

MrRee wrote: »

You must feel for the sorry, sad, souls on HPC .... they sold their families down the river of hope and the boat has sunk.

Prices remain resilient - that's selling prices - asking prices are just falling to meet the increasing actual sold price.

In the South, at least, the worst is well over ... the North will feel this confidence during the Spring of 2012. Then we shall get growth moving once more.

I'd seriously like to know what you've been drinking. If we could put it into the mains water supply the depression may be averted.

MrRee_2

I realise what it must be like to those in the North ...... my words must seem like a Utophia to you - but, honestly, stick by it - the good times will reach you in the Spring of 2012.

To shortchanged above - boom times are reflected in the SOLD signs, the fact that nothing is coming to the market doesn't mean that which does isn't snapped up within the hour. It is booming, booming extremely well if you are a seller.

doire_2

Big drop in asking prices. Sellers starting to realise the boom times have gone

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes there will.
But any significant fall in supply will drive prices up.

You appear to have forgotten the other side of the supply/demand equation.

MrRee_2

doire wrote: »

Big drop in asking prices. Sellers starting to realise the boom times have gone

I think you will find that they are only meeting the actual selling prices.

I will repeat what is happening, selling prices are now getting very close to asking prices - within about 3% generally .... which is all the Rightmove report is stating.

In 2009, selling prices were 30% generally below asking prices - I know - I was there (but stupidly thought there were further falls to come).

What we are witnessing is simply asking prices meeting the selling prices, that's all.

shortchanged_2

MrRee wrote: »

I realise what it must be like to those in the North ...... my words must seem like a Utophia to you - but, honestly, stick by it - the good times will reach you in the Spring of 2012.

To shortchanged above - boom times are reflected in the SOLD signs, the fact that nothing is coming to the market doesn't mean that which does isn't snapped up within the hour. It is booming, booming extremely well if you are a seller.

Well a lack of sellers indicates a lack of confidence. So if things are booming that much why the lack of supply?