increases expectations that house prices will drop

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight, said "I've been spectacularly wrong for a very long time now, but what the heck, at least I'm getting my name in the paper. Hi Mum!!!"

Hamishes Pundit of choice: Ray Boulger. September 2007. "House prices are unlikely to crash" :rotfl:
Hamish. 2007. "Thanks ray. I'll just nip out and buy a place then".

Howard seems to be less spectacularly wrong than many I would have to say.

brit1234

nollag2006 wrote: »

What falls? You sig clearly shows that the main indices are all turning positive

What interest rate cut? The Bank of England rate has been 0.5% for years now.

You sound almost as certain as you did when you predicted house price falls from peak of 50% by Christmas 2009

:rotfl:

No they don't. You fail to remember that at the start of the crash there were a few positive months but the trend is down.

I actually suspect there will be a massive fall in the Halifax figures next week. However low transactions are distorting things.

As for the interest rates I do mean that drastic cut a couple of years ago. Do you discount that it is the reason for the slower falls?

Nollag what's your view on where house prices will be mid 2012?

fellwalker09

illgetthere wrote: »

the only way i will drop 20%+ on my house is if i was ever forced to sell, and that would be the only reason. There is no way that people would happily drop their asking prices if they were financially stable and just selling their property.

Obviously you make a good personal point. However, people are dropping their prices simply because their properties have been on the market for years. I should know -at least that's what I see in my region, having been looking for a suitable family home for the last 3.5 years -and yes, partly that long due to waiting for prices to drop.

There are many negative factors affecting the housing market and often the price advertised is not the price paid today. I've done a lot of research and am finding increasingly that the price paid today is about the same as around 2004 -get the stats from housing registry. Makes for interesting viewing. Doesn't really matter what one thinks their home is worth -it's worth what someone will pay for it and it's a buyers market.

Personally, I feel that its all got out of hand -we've seen incredible price increases, bolstered by ridiculous lending criteria/practices, which are now double backing thankfully.

Pimperne1

fellwalker09 wrote: »

Obviously you make a good personal point. However, people are dropping their prices simply because their properties have been on the market for years. I should know -at least that's what I see in my region, having been looking for a suitable family home for the last 3.5 years -and yes, partly that long due to waiting for prices to drop.

There are many negative factors affecting the housing market and often the price advertised is not the price paid today. I've done a lot of research and am finding increasingly that the price paid today is about the same as around 2004 -get the stats from housing registry. Makes for interesting viewing. Doesn't really matter what one thinks their home is worth -it's worth what someone will pay for it and it's a buyers market.

Personally, I feel that its all got out of hand -we've seen incredible price increases, bolstered by ridiculous lending criteria/practices, which are now double backing thankfully.

Give us a link so that we can confirm that on Houseprices.co.uk

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/

(But I warn you if it is anywhere near where Jimmy 31 lives then you should also invest in a flack jacket, personal accident insurance, iron bars for the downstairs windows, an armoured car and a panic room).

Graham_Devon

illgetthere wrote: »

the only way i will drop 20%+ on my house is if i was ever forced to sell, and that would be the only reason. There is no way that people would happily drop their asking prices if they were financially stable and just selling their property.

This doesn't make any sense.

You either want to sell a property, or you don't.

I can go and sell my car for 10k if I want. But as it is, it's only worth 6k. If I want to sell it, I have to accept an offer at some point.

All you are stating is actually, they won't sell. However, there has not been one single point in history where people have stopped market declines through not selling. I don't know why people assume it will be different this time and suggest people won't sell. They will, and do.

People can ask as much as they like. But life doesn't stop for the UK with declining house prices, life still has to go on, and people have to sell to move for many reasons.

Emy1501

Can't see prices falling in the near future unless the Euro issue gets out of control. For me inflation will make houses more affordable over the next 5-10 years.

ess0two

brit1234 wrote: »

No they don't. You fail to remember that at the start of the crash there were a few positive months but the trend is down.

I actually suspect there will be a massive fall in the Halifax figures next week. However low transactions are distorting things.

As for the interest rates I do mean that drastic cut a couple of years ago. Do you discount that it is the reason for the slower falls?

Nollag what's your view on where house prices will be mid 2012?

More importantly at what point will you buy?

Before you know time will have passed you by.

brit1234

Emy1501 wrote: »

For me inflation will make houses more affordable over the next 5-10 years.

Not if wages are frozen or don't go up in-line with inflation like now for the majority of the population.

Unless you believe that inflation will hit the purse and bring down prices further which is a strong possibility.

madnessofBruno

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Give us a link so that we can confirm that on Houseprices.co.uk

http://www.houseprices.co.uk/

(But I warn you if it is anywhere near where Jimmy 31 lives then you should also invest in a flack jacket, personal accident insurance, iron bars for the downstairs windows, an armoured car and a panic room).

How about this one? You can also buy next door from an ex BTL for £138,000 each. If my memory correct the agent name Rob if you want to help out this poor BTLer, who purchased this property for:-

17 East Ridge View, Bideford, Devon, EX39 4RS

£156,995 29-Apr-2005

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Still not as wrong as you have been with your predictions Hamish,

Ahem......

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/1929789

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=36248003&postcount=284

Now lets see, I was within 0.08% a year later, you were wrong by 15%.

Remind me again Brit, which one of us has better predictive abilities?