House Price Crash 6

lypsey

Hello everyone

Yes I am here again

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=416832&in_page_id=2&ct=5


This is the first time that I truley believe a crash is about to happen. I wonder what the January figures will be like because there is now another IR hike to filter in and also the fixed lengh mortgages have dried up .

CCCCCCCCRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHH

PoorDave

Nonsense. Property price always go up!

Blah blah blah.

Mac_Sami

I suggest you read the article. December is bound to be a quiet month in approving mortgages, because people won't want to move as much around christmas time, not to mention the amount of other expenditure at that time of the year. Furthermore, the figures quoted only tell us how many loans were approved - but out of how many? It is a misleading statistic, but I would expect nothing less from the source you cite.

Property, as far as I am concerned, is simply supply and demand - until the government start allowing serious development, there will be a shortage of decent, affordable housing. Therefore what is available gets snapped up, resulting in more demand, so the prices go up, and people will keep buying because we are all told how important it is to get the first foot on the housing ladder. If first time buyers united and actually stopped trying to buy houses, the market would have to come down in price. Obviously that will never happen though!

lypsey

MAc

You are so wrong about supply and demand , the Hong Kong housing market bubble burst in the mid-1990s and average prices today still stand 55% lower than in 1997. I can tell you that they said exactly the same as you in Hong Kong. How much space do they have?
Also let me tell you a decade ago FTB'ers made up 45% of the market , now it is 7 - 13% depending on what Newspaper article you read . BTL makes up the bottom rung of the market and I can assure you that any investor worth his salt will rush for the exit at the 1st sign of a 10% loss. This will trigger a massive crash .

If you care to re-read the article this is THE lowest figure since 2001 . It is a comparisson over years not months

You say "we are all told how important it is to get the first foot on the housing ladder" well I ask who is saying that , was it the same people who said buy dotcom shares at the height of the bubble

mystic_trev

and.......

Buy-to-let: should you get out while you can?

http://money.uk.msn.com/Mortgages/BuyToLet/article.aspx?cp-documentid=2617316

CB1979_2

Whoopdee Dooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Congrats

aderbyshirelad

lypsey wrote:

This is the first time that I truley believe a crash is about to happen.

Are you a different "lypsey"? :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

lisyloo

Just thought I'd mentioned that the MPC vote was very close at 5-4.
The expectation of a rise in February has therefore gone down in recent days.

talksalot81

Mac_Sami wrote:

I suggest you read the article. December is bound to be a quiet month in approving mortgages, because people won't want to move as much around christmas time, not to mention the amount of other expenditure at that time of the year. Furthermore, the figures quoted only tell us how many loans were approved - but out of how many? It is a misleading statistic, but I would expect nothing less from the source you cite.

It is not 'bound to be a quiet month'. Figures for NI have showed that December showed as high (if not higher) a growth in the market than the months preceeding it.

In general though, i am tending to think a crash is not imminent (although I do believe it will still happen). I think that the public are just too stupid to cut their losses and run and the lenders are inevitably playing on this to milk people.

zag2me

lisyloo wrote:

Just thought I'd mentioned that the MPC vote was very close at 5-4.
The expectation of a rise in February has therefore gone down in recent days.

7/1 ON with betfair for a hold , lowering inflation as the oil price reduces towards the end of 2007

HPC still has a few years to wait...

ukbondraider

Not another house price thread.

The housing market will crash when the economy does i.e when there are more redundancies and thus no one has any salary coming in. Last year was a record year for my team in the City and judging by the mandates we already have, this year is expected to be even better i.e the economy looks stronger this yr. I am thus expecting a significant increase in wage over the next year as are most other people around me.

Its funny how people quickly put all the negative news up on here on day 1 but never put the contrasting positive news to balance out any arguments e.g. the fact that Merve King expects the interest rate tightening (rises) to be near its end (Merve is the most influencial person when it comes to setting interest rates). Also the fact that other analysts feel that mortgage payments on the whole will only be significantly affected at levels where the interest rate is 7% or above.

Anyone recently looking to buy a house will have noticed that prices have increased in the last 6 months.

Anyhow lets just look at a possibility of a 50% crash? The ability to buy a current house on the market at £500K for £250K in the event of the so called crash just seems too cheap to me. Anyone else agree? Its like someone telling me I can buy a newish Ferrari 360 for £20K tomorrow. Its just seems too good to be true. As a result I would expect there to be many buyersready and waiting although their success will depend on whether banks will lend them the money in a crash scenario. Either way there is demand to support any fall in prices.

Also lets count the number of years the same folks have been talking about a crash? I remember reading on here from the usual select few members the same arguements back in 2003 when I bought my first house. This house has now risen by approx £180K.

I am sure that one day there may be a blip i.e a 5% or 10% fall in prices and these folks will be out in force with a "I told you so" attitude. However, what they wont mention is that for the one time they are correct they would have been incorrect in their views ten times.

I agree house prices are high and I personally would welcome any significant crash but being more realistic I would advise people not to sit there hoping they they can buy their dream house for 50% less that what it is currently going for today.