Aberdeen. ASPC Q3 2011. Most properties in most areas falling.

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

No, it's not about simply looking at the start and end points, it's also about the data in between.
A better analogy would be the cruising height of a glider.
The glider could be cruising at 1,000ft and in between thermals the height reduces (let's say to 850 ft).
when the next thermal is reached the glider reaches 1,150 ft before moving on and the cycle continues.
Now of course the altitude ranges between 850 ft and 1,150 ft, however over the course of the flight plan, the cruising altitude could be summised as 1,000ft
No doubt I've tee'd you up for the glider must come down and therefore will crash

Again your attempting to ignore the epic scale of the variations. In point of fact your just still trying to characterise them as nominal fluctuations. Again, you are clearly being dishonest.
Again, your refusing to discuss the fact that these simply weren't seen prior to the bust.
　

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Who's referring to global averages?

Now why do I suspect your going to go into pedantic fall back mode.
Clearly I mean global in the sense of "comprehensive".
Which is exactly what you keep sticking up on the forum.
The blunt total averages of all properties sold.
　

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Of course someone with an analytical mind might consider the methodology for the stats?
What is the ASPC's methodology?
Do they mix adjust?
Do they do repeat sales regression?
Or do they simply use the average of the properties sold that month?
I refer you back to the methodology point which will impact the statistics.

If you know the answer why don't you enlighten us.
Otherwise I'll assume that its very similar to the ESPC statistic. Blunt averages.
I'll also just pop up the ROS data which you are also aware of.



　

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Dishonest........, give me a break.
Your trying to link something another poster stated about seasonal adjustments.
There are sufficient articles on this matter.

I'm really not sure what your point is. Your appear to be refering to earlier posts not directly related to our correspondence.
In our correspondence I have not mentioned "seasonal adjustments".

Though in point of fact your efforts are a very similar in terms of dishonestly attempting to ignore/misrepresent the real scale of the changes in what you claim to be a stagnant market.
　

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Maybe if you took the time to read and digest the markets you would understand them a little better.

A strange comment, given that you're the one spuriously claiming stagnation when the facts clearly show anything but.
　

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

P.S. Considering your view that these are hard fast facts that all property is fluctating so volitantly.
what's your consideration of the trend, even looking at the troughs of each cycle

My clear and regularly expressed view on this is that the overall averages are heavily skewed by low volumes and two tier markets.
This makes them less than useful in identifying real trends.

This is validated by both the expressed opinions of those who pull the statistics together, and closer review of the breakdowns, which invariably paint a less rosey picture.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

geneer wrote: »

spuriously claiming stagnation when the facts clearly show anything but.

geneer, in all seriousness, do you have a shred of evidence from the Aberdeen market to show that on average, most houses are selling at significantly below 2007 levels?

We've shown you blunt average indices, we've shown you mix adjusted indices, we've shown you individual houses that sold in 2007 and again in 2010/11....

We've show you local press reports, national press reports, and even posts from the bears on hpc admitting that prices now are similar to or higher than in 2007.

For the love of god man, what will it take to stop this endless, pointless, pedantic, tedious one-man-trolling mission you've been on for the last few years?

IveSeenTheLight

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

geneer, in all seriousness, do you have a shred of evidence from the Aberdeen market to show that on average, most houses are selling at significantly below 2007 levels?

We've shown you blunt average indices, we've shown you mix adjusted indices, we've shown you individual houses that sold in 2007 and again in 2010/11....

We've show you local press reports, national press reports, and even posts from the bears on hpc admitting that prices now are similar to or higher than in 2007.

For the love of god man, what will it take to stop this endless, pointless, pedantic, tedious one-man-trolling mission you've been on for the last few years?

There's no point Hamish.
The facts are clear for all to see, for some there's just denial of the truth.

I find him quite funny you know, he comes out with some classics suchs as "falls are facts, but rises are statistical skews due to low transaction volumes" and recently the "Edinburgh Citry Centre is a property type, it's Edinburgh City Centre property"

Best to leave him wallowing in his self belief and discuss with better posters who discuss on topic issues with merit.

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

There's no point Hamish.
The facts are clear for all to see, for some there's just denial of the truth.

I find him quite funny you know, he comes out with some classics suchs as "falls are facts, but rises are statistical skews due to low transaction volumes" and recently the "Edinburgh Citry Centre is a property type, it's Edinburgh City Centre property"

Best to leave him wallowing in his self belief and discuss with better posters who discuss on topic issues with merit.

:rotfl:Better to resort to ad hominem attacks and gross misrepresentations when your assertions have been thoroughly discredited eh.

Pretty much standard operating procedure for you Light.

julieq

So basically we're saying that prices basically doubled between 2004 and now, but they dropped a little last quarter.

Well that certainly vindicates your strategy Geneer. Well done indeed. You've cut your losses a fraction. Going to buy now?

Nah, didn't think so. Move along people. Nothing to see here.

geneer

And the award for most off topic random dose of misplaced rage goes to.....

julieq wrote: »

So basically we're saying that prices basically doubled between 2004 and now, but they dropped a little last quarter.

Well that certainly vindicates your strategy Geneer. Well done indeed. You've cut your losses a fraction. Going to buy now?

Nah, didn't think so. Move along people. Nothing to see here.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

geneer, in all seriousness, do you have a shred of evidence from the Aberdeen market to show that on average, most houses are selling at significantly below 2007 levels?

We've shown you blunt average indices, we've shown you mix adjusted indices, we've shown you individual houses that sold in 2007 and again in 2010/11....

We've show you local press reports, national press reports, and even posts from the bears on hpc admitting that prices now are similar to or higher than in 2007.

For the love of god man, what will it take to stop this endless, pointless, pedantic, tedious one-man-trolling mission you've been on for the last few years?

Hiya Hamish. Bright autumn day here. How is it up your way?

Sorry to stop you mid rant, but who mentioned 2007 prices?

Furthermore the supporting evidence your weighing against your straw man creation appears to be the blunt violently volatile averages we've demonstrated have little real meaning in their own, or the articles based on the same.

Which doesn't strike me as all that sensible. Ho hum.

geneer

Anyway Hamish. I know your a big fan of quality Aberdeen properties.
So I'm sure you will be pleased to learn that according to the ROS (hot of the press) average aberdeen house prices have increased by 0.1% over the last few months. So only 5 to 6% real falls there then.

Oh...wait. I spoke to soon.
Digging a little deeper it looks as if your detached property is down almost -11% YOY.
Your average semi are down almost -5% YOY.
And your average flat is down almost -2% YOY.

Wow. Now, who do we know with a strong preference for YOY figures.
Not a normal seasonal variation in sight either.

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

Not a normal seasonal variation in sight either.

Ooops............
"Quarter 1 has seen the lowest averageprice for the majority of quarters, with wuarter 2 seeing some of the highest"

"This is in line with seasonal trends, with the higher sales being seen over the spring and summer months"