What Would You Do If..........?

Poosmate

The National Grid went off (in your area). <-- changed due to comment on post 6).

I've seen chat on these forums that the National Grid is at times, working to close to it's maximum capacity and that we could in the future be faced with power cuts. Also on the news recently this has been reported especially with a predicted "as cold as, possibly colder" winter to come.

If your electric went off do you have an alternative heat source?

Is there anything you can do to reduce your electricity consumption during peak times (broadly between 5pm and 9pm during winter months)?

If the breakdown of the National Grid was imminent and all media was interrupted with a warning as such what could/would you do to reduce the load?

I'm ok(ish) in this scenario as I have gas fire and gas hob for heating/cooking but I would still (if requested) turn off my fridge, freezer, lights in unused rooms (the stairs/landing light) and turn off everything not being used at the plug (not sure if an appliance being plugged in uses much but hey if it's just one watt per hour each it's something). I live alone and am a very light electric user anyway so that's more or less all I could do.

Look around and think about what you could do.

Poo

Just to add: Please don't over analyse this scenario, it may happen, it may not, I haven't gone into any kind of research as to the likelihood of it happening but for the purpose of this thread please assume that it could and what you would do.

Thanks

Poo

chris1973

Not sure where you are getting those rumours from, but looking at the National Grid's own historical data, peak demand remains largely the same in 2011 as it was in 2005 & 2006. Peak demand in the UK tends to hover around the low to mid 50,000MW's and this seems to be the same whether you compare 2006 data or 2011 data

Source:- http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Demand+Data/

If I was seeing peak figures of say 50,000mw in 2006 and 90,000mw in 2011, I'd agree demand was rising at an alarming rate, but i'm not seeing that at all, i'm seeing demand which is largely consistant through records accrued over the last 6 years.

In fact comparing peak demand figures in Jan 2011, with the Jan 2006, I see far more regular peak demands as high as 56,000mw in Jan 2006, compared with peaks averaging around 50,000 - 52,000mw for the same period in 2011, so in fact Demand seems to have fallen by some 4000mw - 6000mw for the Jan 2011 period compared to Jan 2006, and this was also bearing in mind that Jan 2011, was quite a harsh winter with extreme conditions lasting upto 10 - 14 days.

No doubt the recent fall in demand can possibly be attributed by people no longer being able to afford to run their Electric Heating. Demand may have remained largely consistant, unfortunately the same cannot be said for prices!.

Poosmate

Thanks for your replies. My post was just something that I'd heard, thought about (occasionally) and wondered about IF this scenario happened could the the nation pull together and avert it.

I admit I haven't searched for facts and figures, statistics or announcements to add links as it was meant as a general "What if" scenario. I didn't think people would over analyse it, interesting as those figures are and whether it's going to happen or not, I still think it would be interesting if people could think about it even if it only serves as a way of making people realise that they use more electric than they need to.

I shall add a bit to my original post to reflect that this is more for "passing interest" rather than to be picked apart through analytical interrogation.

Also, I guess another reason why the peak load could be static or reducing could also be down to the fact that our appliances are becoming more efficient so reducing the load too.

Poo

macman

If the grid did run out of capacity due to huge over demand or supply failure, (both unlikely in the extreme) then it wouldn't all go down at once!. They would simply switch off regionally/locally in rotation, just as they did during the 3 day week in the 1977/8. I don't recall that cuts ever lasted more than about 4 or 5 hours.
It was inconvenient, but I don't recall any great hardship (I was lucky in that I had a an old fashioned gas fire that still worked).
If you want to bring about the collapse of western society these days, a better bet would be to take out Blackberry it seems

grahamc2003

Under currect plans, powercuts seem almost certain. Not the whole grid going down as the op suggests, but areas selectively cut to ensure there's enough generation avaliable for what's left connected.

The recession may help a little to reduce demand, but it is the generation which is the problem, with apporx 20% being decommissioned over the next few years - most Nukes and some big coal stations - the latter not even near the end of their lives, but simply because they would be too expensive to convert to meet new and very demanding emission requirements.

Much of the new generation is intermittent (wind, solar etc), meaning it's pot luck whether it will contribute to generation during periods of peak demand (in the case of solar, we know that contribution will be zero at that time).

I'm afraid decisions and long term strategy are no longer made by the government taking advice from senior grid engineers - their ears are manily open only to environmental consultants with, to my mind, no concept of how electricity is actually supplied and neither the sensible requirements of any additional generating capacity. Basically, any intermittent generation is more or less completely useless when it comes to keeping the lights on - and therein lies the problem. All the investment today is currently going into intermittent generating capacity, and little if any going into generation which can be relied upon to supply during the most critical periods.

chris1973

If the Grid was switched off for long periods of time, then if it isn't metering units it isn't selling its products and making money. Revenue will inevitably drop.

Imagine the knock on effect of this loss of revenue to the Government, from the loss of the 5% VAT revenue it takes from domestic customer bills and 20% VAT from commercial / industrial ones.

I'm pretty certain that the G'ment, will not back plans which will deprive it of such easy revenue.

Besides, from news sources it seems that huge amounts of money are being invested into the UK Power and Gas Infrastructure - $16 billion to be exact

http://www.mwhglobal.com/blog/mwh-to-support-united-kingdoms-largest-energy-infrastructure-pro/

Not exactly in line with the doom and gloom scenario some are predicting is it?

Poosmate

Thanks both, Macman I like your comment on the Blackberry - made me lol a bit. Graham, I'll change my op again. Crikey this is getting hard work for just a bit of general wondering! lol

Poo

lemontart

It is very unlikely to happen and others have already posted links illustrating that, saying that there does seem to be quite a lot of power cuts given the number of calls I get (though not sure what the gas emergency service can do) but this tend to be local as opposed to national and the people to contact if you have a power cut is your local electricity distribution company.

If you do not know who that is use this online tool from British Gas, just type in your post code and it will give you the information, http://www.britishgas.co.uk/emergency-numbers.html

lemontart

Information aside I lived through the power cuts in the 70's doing homework by candle light with the gas oven open for heat, I have options for everything be it cooking with gas hob electric oven and gas boiler for water though if electric out may not work anyway. Only worry is freezer but that should survive an hr or two with out too much damage.

Already have windup torch and radio and lots of candles and gas fire for heat.

If cold but extra clothes on, if hungry have a sandwich if no gas cooking options, if dark use a torch or even the mobile phone as torch with screen to be safe going for an early night. Not the end of the world.

chris1973

Only worry is freezer but that should survive an hr or two with out too much damage.

If you are really that concerned, invest in some of the packaging which companies like ROSSPA use to get chilled goods by carrier to customers. They use special packaging and insulated boxes with goods like meat etc, should be good for at least 12 - 24 hours!

http://www.rosspa.co.uk/faqs-z-17.html

How does my chilled food stay cold during transit?
We send all chilled produce out in special temperature controlled boxes.

Place and order with them and effectively you get the packaging to re-use for free!.

Poosmate

Chris, I was just a kid when we had power cuts in the 70's so I didn't realise all the implications I just remember we sometimes had to live by candlelight occasionally. I have no idea how long those outages lasted each time.

I wouldn't expect that the outages would be for long periods and yes the government are investing in our power infrastructure but as Graham said is it enough to meet the peak demands? I mean wind power and solar power, neither are reliable 100% and solar is certainly 100% unreliable at the peak demand time. The only way solar power will help is if people who would usually have used the electric at the peak time have changed their habits to use that bit of electric during the day with the help of their solar panels but I suspect that will be a drop in the ocean at the moment and probably for the forseeable future.

Poo