CPI hits records at 5.2%

Graham_Devon

Based on my understanding, VAT dropping out will see inflation fall back to 4% give or take. Still double target.

Listening to those on the news today, you'd believe prices were going to FALL next year. Actually, they will just be going up 20% less quickly (unless commodities etc fall). Joy.

John_Pierpoint

Really2 wrote: »

But out of interest here is the recent forecast.

2009



GDP

2009

Still cant see the base rate going up to 5% for years though. ;0

They have pumped in enough funny money to support the green growth rate of about 4%. The growth has not happened so surprise surprise the money is helping stoke up inflation.

So if at first you don't succeed try the same again.

EchoLocation

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Based on my understanding, VAT dropping out will see inflation fall back to 4% give or take. Still double target.

Listening to those on the news today, you'd believe prices were going to FALL next year. Actually, they will just be going up 20% less quickly (unless commodities etc fall). Joy.

Nobody on the news ever points this out. It's maddening.

geneer

lemonjelly wrote: »

This the same Blanchflower you've been critical of pretty much everything he's done or said in recent years?

Rising prices is a good thing, innit?

The bulls aren't effected by rocketing inflation or nosediving economy.
One can only assume they live in a parallel dimension.

lvader

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Based on my understanding, VAT dropping out will see inflation fall back to 4% give or take. Still double target.

Listening to those on the news today, you'd believe prices were going to FALL next year. Actually, they will just be going up 20% less quickly (unless commodities etc fall). Joy.

Commodities have fallen, below the prices of 12 months ago in some cases. It takes time to feed through. i.e. current gas/electricity prices are based on oil prices 6 months ago which were a lot higher than they are now.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

"Five or six years of 5% inflation does the job nicely. That way we get to inflate our debt away and we don't have to go through all this austerity nonsense."

~David Blanchflower, Nov 2010

Of course the idea that significant real falls = a win for the bulls is a woefully transparent by-product of the bullish "timing game".

Without this embittered fall back position, its quite clear that even real falls are a tremendously good thing for all potential future homeowners, be they bulls, bears or otherwise.
Happily, 4 years of effort in constantly trying to realign their positions doesn't mean anyones going to fall for it.

Theres also the echoing refrains of the pre-2007 mantra "the government wont let it happen".
But as house prices crashed (by any objective measure) its quite clear the government was unable to prevent it.

In any event, it still amuses me how much kudos certain forum members appear to demand for the after effects of an economic collapse they utterly failed to see coming.

sheffield_lad

yes house prices crashed and then we all woke up and realised they didn't crash not even a decent correction really lol. Wakey wakey lol.

Inflation wise I lost you guys in the load of tosh on the last few pages but I think they are more worried about deflation and stagnation over what the inflation rate is currently today. Vat no longer in the figures from Jan and poor growth = prices being dragged back, look at copper, lead, zinc all dropping from last years highs.

So although currently tough the gov and all of us have other economic worries above inflation which will drop next year.

Not much from the unions as they are negotiating deals based on CPI, so current position good for mortgage or large debt holders and bad for pensioners

brit1234

Time to kick out King, his principle role is to keep inflation at 2%. At nearly 3 x that level he has failed.

daveyjp

"The CPIY is the same as the all items CPI except that it excludes price changes which are directly due to changes in indirect taxation (such as VAT)."

So if you manipuate a bad number it makes everything OK does it? Bottom line is something which cost £1 is now costing £1.05 and a bit more, not £1.03 as unfortunately I can't pay a price less the VAT increase.

If you exclude all items which have increased in value the CPI is actually 0%!!

grizzly1911

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

So if at first you don't succeed try the same again.

Seen it somwhere else on these forums but doesn't that equate to morons or similar;)

I think these graphs are great target equal x spread is 400% I wish my bank or HMRC would allow me to be so vague.