House prices fall £5,000 in year to September

DervProf

shortchanged wrote: »

Spammer!! Says the devout follower of the teachings of the Almighty Express.

He's a spanner, I mean spammer alright.

julieq

This is a bit hopeless even for the bears. It's a 2.3% year on year reduction in average prices, which is hardly earth shattering.

I suspect "TheEnigma"'s (why do you get these b0llock stupid monikers for the ultrabears?) words will come back to haunt him/her, but then again since he or she isn't bothering to say what a "few years" amounts to he's (it is a he, isn't it?) really only doing what legions of bears have been doing for years which is forecasting apocalyse based on wishful thinking. And getting it consistently wrong. Time after time after time until most of them chickened out and bought, amusingly enough having missed low mortgage rates and at the peak after the bounceback.

If we're stagnating in the middle of a desperate Eurozone crisis when lending remains curtailed, what do you think is going to happen when things improve, which they will into early next year one way or another?

Until we build more houses here, demand will increase, rents will go up, and there will be upwards pressure on prices. End of.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

This is a bit hopeless even for the bears. It's a 2.3% year on year reduction in average prices, which is hardly earth shattering.

Someone just posted it.

How is that desperate?

Looking too much into it from your bitter viewpoint me jules.

DervProf

julieq wrote: »

This is a bit hopeless even for the bears. It's a 2.3% year on year reduction in average prices, which is hardly earth shattering.

Considering the barrage of "House prices will only go up. The average semi-detached will be £250K within 10years" etc that we had a few years ago, then I'd say while a 2.3% fall may not shatter the earth, it will cause it to crack a little.

Also, I believe the average house price is still below peak, which was how long ago ? Looks like it's a slow motion crash, or "correction" if you don't like the term.

Flight2quality

DervProf wrote: »

Considering the barrage of "House prices will only go up. The average semi-detached will be £250K within 10years" etc that we had a few years ago, then I'd say while a 2.3% fall may not shatter the earth, it will cause it to crack a little.

Also, I believe the average house price is still below peak, which was how long ago ? Looks like it's a slow motion crash, or "correction" if you don't like the term.

Certainly is slow motion prices will be about the same as now in 2020, but with inflation it certainly will have been a slow motion crash.

geneer

Flight2quality wrote: »

Certainly is slow motion prices will be about the same as now in 2020, but with inflation it certainly will have been a slow motion crash.

Good news for those worried about the future of the younger generation.

"Real" falls are after all real.

RenovationMan

I wonder what the average YoY mortgage repayment is?

If a mortgage is over 25 years and the repayment is split over those 25 years then we would be looking at 4% per annum. Obviously with the current low interest rates allowing many people to make large overpayments, we could be seeing a larger figure than 4% per annum.

So a reduction in the value of a house of 2.5% as opposed to a reduction in the debt of a house by (say) 4.5%, means an increase in homeowner equity of 2% per annum. This really can be seen by most home owners as the legendary 'soft landing'.

Good news for everyone if this continues. Lower prices for FTBs and a soft landing and no Neg Equity for home owners. Everyone's a winner.

Mallotum_X

RenovationMan wrote: »

So a reduction in the value of a house of 2.5% as opposed to a reduction in the debt of a house by (say) 4.5%, means an increase in homeowner equity of 2% per annum. This really can be seen by most home owners as the legendary 'soft landing'.

Good news for everyone if this continues. Lower prices for FTBs and a soft landing and no Neg Equity for home owners. Everyone's a winner.

I have to agree that this is where I see things going.

Although I doubt the drops will be fast enough for the current crop of potential FTB, we may end up with some affordability returning eventually. It does seem that this has been the plan, hold things as they are and encourage people to pay down debt.

Sadly I'm not sure everyone will be a winner, we are in danger of having a Japanese style lost generation, lack of jobs, lack of housing etc.

However that said, a longer term gradual fall, in theory should be safer for the economy as a whole, although will favour the richer in society over the poorer or younger.

Time will tell.

Pimperne1

Mallotum_X wrote: »

I have to agree that this is where I see things going.

Although I doubt the drops will be fast enough for the current crop of potential FTB, we may end up with some affordability returning eventually. It does seem that this has been the plan, hold things as they are and encourage people to pay down debt.

Sadly I'm not sure everyone will be a winner, we are in danger of having a Japanese style lost generation, lack of jobs, lack of housing etc.

However that said, a longer term gradual fall, in theory should be safer for the economy as a whole, although will favour the richer in society over the poorer or younger.

Time will tell.

Thought this might be a positive post from you for a minute there! Glad you remembered to make the comparison with Japan though.

Jimmy_31

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Given the over-excitement about a 0.3% monthly fall after 3 months of rises, I suspect time isn't the only thing he's got on his hands.:)

Give it up hamish, ive read a few threads today an you keep popping up with a crappy dig at somebody and then you get put in your place and bail out of the thread.

At least try and come up with a decent comeback once in a while.