Credit crunch forecaster now suggests 50% falls in house prices

cepheus

apocalyptic visions of respected - and to date uncannily accurate - economist and investment manager David Kauders.
..........The credit crunch and banking crisis of 2008, which he more or less predicted, has given him greater authority.

"......Because of its direct relationship to credit supply, property is where the real action is at. And through his eyes, the action is a total bloodbath. I spoke to him last week, in particular to question him on what has appeared to be some resurgence of mortgage lending. How would his thesis stand up to the fact that lenders appear to be easing back into the market?

But he sees this as a blip, one of what he says will be many last-gasp attempts of a dying man to swim against the insuperable flood. Kauders fervently urged against borrowing to buy: 'No-one should be borrowing to buy property,' he said..... he talked vaguely of property losing half of its value..

http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/2011/10/house-prices-to-halve-and-worse-for-the-ftse.html

Cleaver

I don't think house prices will fall 50%. However, I might be saying something like that if I had a book like his to flog.

Pimperne1

In a couple of years he will be out there saying "Didn't I make it clear, I meant in "real" terms against (whatever asset class has done well over the period)".

heathcote123

Pimperne1 wrote: »

In a couple of years he will be out there saying "Didn't I make it clear, I meant in "real" terms against (whatever asset class has done well over the period)*".

*In specific areas of Northern England.

I was mildly amused by bill bonners back page in moneyweek a couple of weeks back - gold crashed 'as we said it would'. I missed that one though.

John_Pierpoint

In Ireland?

John_Pierpoint

Just when will these hoarders of noble metals, start spending their accumulated "wealth", or are we heading towards gold lined coffins?

Blacklight

"We are all DOOMED" says self proclaimed prophet of doom who also writes books about how doomed we all are to make sure he's got plenty of money when doomsday comes.

macaque_2

cepheus wrote: »

apocalyptic visions of respected - and to date uncannily accurate - economist and investment manager David Kauders.
..........The credit crunch and banking crisis of 2008, which he more or less predicted, has given him greater authority.

"......Because of its direct relationship to credit supply, property is where the real action is at. And through his eyes, the action is a total bloodbath. I spoke to him last week, in particular to question him on what has appeared to be some resurgence of mortgage lending. How would his thesis stand up to the fact that lenders appear to be easing back into the market?

But he sees this as a blip, one of what he says will be many last-gasp attempts of a dying man to swim against the insuperable flood. Kauders fervently urged against borrowing to buy: 'No-one should be borrowing to buy property,' he said..... he talked vaguely of property losing half of its value..

http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/2011/10/house-prices-to-halve-and-worse-for-the-ftse.html

He is right and when this is added to the losses of previous years, it adds up to a 70% correction. For as much as government and other interests have attempted to delay the inveitable, it has been obvious that the house bulls have been swimming against an irresistable tide.

About the 70% club
The 70% club belongs to neither the bull nor bear camp but it is simply focussed on fair and balanced analysis of house price trends.
Guru Baba Simian Macaque ADHD

homelessskilledworker

Cleaver wrote: »

I don't think house prices will fall 50%. However, I might be saying something like that if I had a book like his to flog.

If you look at the simple facts of what is happening with the economy right now it is impossible to come to any serious conclusion that hous prices will do anything but fall, end of.

I don't know what the size of the falls will be, nobody does, but the simple fact is that the economy is dire, and the value of property just cannot do anything else but fall.

Dan:_4

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

If you look at the simple facts of what is happening with the economy right now it is impossible to come to any serious conclusion that hous prices will do anything but fall, end of.

I don't know what the size of the falls will be, nobody does, but the simple fact is that the economy is dire, and the value of property just cannot do anything else but fall.

[MSE] People have been telling me for the last 3 years. I'm wondering how much longer i'll have to wait as it's starting to take the p!ss now.

Cleaver

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

If you look at the simple facts of what is happening with the economy right now it is impossible to come to any serious conclusion that hous prices will do anything but fall, end of.

I don't know what the size of the falls will be, nobody does, but the simple fact is that the economy is dire, and the value of property just cannot do anything else but fall.

I happen to agree, but that doesn't mean that we're both right. But I certainly don't think the falls from here will be anywhere near 50%. Would be fairly surprised if they even hit 15%, as I think moderate falls and long stagnation is what we're facing. Just my opinion though.

By the way, if you're homeless are you posting this from an internet cafe?