The eight-year bear market in property

Flight2quality

The four factors that will make UK property a nightmare investment for the next four years.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/how-to-invest/strategies/the-eight-year-bear-market-in-property-55626

Pimperne1

Flight2quality wrote: »

The four factors that will make UK property a nightmare investment for the next four years.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-advice/how-to-invest/strategies/the-eight-year-bear-market-in-property-55626

"Moneyweek, predicting house price Armageddon since 2004".

wotsthat

Moneyweek - so s**t it makes the Express look good.

wotsthat

Moneyweek - a daily dose of misery delivered directly to your inbox.

Pimperne1

"Moneyweek, we haven't got our house price crash prediction right yet but bear with us".

Flight2quality

Pimperne1 wrote: »

"Moneyweek, blar blar blar not worth reading because its moneyweek, not worth thinking about.

How original. Why not come out with some well thought out reasons why you think moneyweek is wrong? Thats right you cant.


Four factors that could destroy the housing market

The clear and present danger is interest rates. Even with rates pegged to the floor, house prices are barely treading water.
But things can change quickly in the financial markets. Let’s not forget that our economy is vulnerable to a massive banking industry.
Eurozone trouble will inevitably lead to trouble for our oversized banking industry. Who knows exactly how things will pan out, but an emergency rise in rates will throttle the housing market.

UK housing has been under-supplied for decades, hence the boom. The government has promised to change this dynamic, it’ll surely have a negative effect on prices.

I am also concerned about demographic changes. Immigration has undoubtedly fuelled demand for homes. But immigration is likely to slow and possibly even reverse. Whether that’s down to government policy, or the fact that the UK is no longer quite so attractive to migrants remains to be seen.
Markets can crash (as I think likely with a sudden rise in rates), or they can grind down slowly as economic forces and long-term changes slowly take effect. And in the case of housing, the market can even flat-line for years while inflation takes a chunk out of it’s real value.

StevieJ

Pimperne1 wrote: »

"Moneyweek, predicting house price Armageddon since 2004".

Not true, they like to keep all angles covered so they can send emails to the gullible

US housing: it's not a bubble

By James Ferguson Dec 12, 2005

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...-a-bubble.aspx

wotsthat

a) interest rates rising significantly in the short term is unlikely
b) government promises aren't the same as government action. Any changes to the 'dynamic', if they happen, will be slow and drawn out
c) Moneyweek write the headline first and provide the 'evidence' second.

CLAPTON

Flight2quality wrote: »

How original. Why not come out with some well thought out reasons why you think moneyweek is wrong? Thats right you cant.


Four factors that could destroy the housing market

The clear and present danger is interest rates. Even with rates pegged to the floor, house prices are barely treading water.
But things can change quickly in the financial markets. Let’s not forget that our economy is vulnerable to a massive banking industry.
Eurozone trouble will inevitably lead to trouble for our oversized banking industry. Who knows exactly how things will pan out, but an emergency rise in rates will throttle the housing market.

UK housing has been under-supplied for decades, hence the boom. The government has promised to change this dynamic, it’ll surely have a negative effect on prices.

I am also concerned about demographic changes. Immigration has undoubtedly fuelled demand for homes. But immigration is likely to slow and possibly even reverse. Whether that’s down to government policy, or the fact that the UK is no longer quite so attractive to migrants remains to be seen.
Markets can crash (as I think likely with a sudden rise in rates), or they can grind down slowly as economic forces and long-term changes slowly take effect. And in the case of housing, the market can even flat-line for years while inflation takes a chunk out of it’s real value.

OK lets take them one a t atime

1. interest rate will rise; why?
usually because of a boom... well how likely is that and if it does happen then that means a lot more money in the system some of which will be available for house purchases

2. Government promises to increase house building.
yes he was born yesterday

3. demographics
we have been in a (near) recession for 3 years... net immigration continues to rise: he gives no reason for this to stop.

4. his last point is that markets 'may ' crash or maybe stay the same
well yes some deep analysis here


so not a very impressive text really

nembot

1. Interest rate will rise; why?
They should, but we'd be screwed.

2. Government promises to increase house building.
There is no more money, because we're screwed.

3. Demographics
It's the government screwing us even more.

4. Last point is that markets 'may ' crash or maybe stay the same.
There is no easy way of saying we're screwed.

But house prices are going to rise, give me f00kin strength.....

chewmylegoff

there should be some kind of tool on this forum which just automatically deletes all posts quoting the following sources:

moneyweek
daily express
any internet blog about precious metals

alternatively it could sweep them all into a "stupid person" thread, kind of like the nice people thread, but for stupid people.