The eight-year bear market in property

Blacklight

moneyweek lol

nembot

chewmylegoff wrote: »

there should be some kind of tool on this forum which just automatically deletes all posts quoting the following sources:

moneyweek
daily express
any internet blog about precious metals

alternatively it could sweep them all into a "stupid person" thread, kind of like the nice people thread, but for stupid people.

That'd take half the fun away

Thrugelmir

Pimperne1 wrote: »

"Moneyweek, predicting house price Armageddon since 2004".

Which means that the correction will merely take longer to unwind.

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

1. interest rate will rise; why?
usually because of a boom... well how likely is that and if it does happen then that means a lot more money in the system some of which will be available for house purchases

Where's this money going to come from?

Pimperne1

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Which means that the correction will merely take longer to unwind.

Fine (although I would be sad if I had believed and acted on what Merryn predicted in 2004 then). Cold comfort really.

Thrugelmir

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Fine (although I would be sad if I had believed and acted on what Merryn predicted in 2004 then). Cold comfort really.

With hindsight. The events of 2007 and 2008 exposed the reality of the situation. Until then no-one understood how the property market could spiral endlessly upwards.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With hindsight. The events of 2007 and 2008 exposed the reality of the situation. .

Yes they did rather.

70% of lending was removed from the US market, the ROI market and the UK market.

All three countries tried record low interest rates, all three countries tried flooding the system with liquidity, all three countries tried help for homeowners, bank bailouts, etc.

Yet here we are today and Irish prices are 50% below peak, in the USA 38% below peak, and in the UK just 10% below peak.

Because Irish housing vacancy rates are at 17%, American housing vacancy rates at 13%, and UK vacancy rates at just 3% (and falling).

So the reality is there was no bubble in UK housing. Just a good old supply shortage.:cool:

Conrad

Flight2quality wrote: »

Four factors that could destroy the housing market

1) an emergency rise in rates will throttle the housing market.

2) The government has promised to change this dynamic, it’ll surely have a negative effect on prices.

3) But immigration is likely to slow and possibly even reverse.

1) Would also thottle the recovery, so unlikely to happen. THE take home message from the last 3 years is the BOE will put economic recovery above all else.

When rates rise, it is certainly the case the economy will be in much better shape, so falling prices and rents unlikely.


2) Government building programmes will take up hardly any of the slack and in any event more housing begetts more immigration (like building the M25 lead to more traffic in the South East, not less)

Infrastructure concentrates populations - thats why the Chinese keep building


3) Immigration will not reverse, this country is quite a beacon compared to many such as Spain and Italy. That wont change any time soon.
Our place outside of the Euro makes us an attractive safety beacon by comparison.


4) CML numbers show year on year rises in the buy to let share of the market.
Millions of ordinary folk will keep on investing - it generates good after cost yields and feels to many a great deal more comfortable and familiar than invesing in city whizz kids

Landlords have never had it so good

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With hindsight. The events of 2007 and 2008 exposed the reality of the situation. Until then no-one understood how the property market could spiral endlessly upwards.

Yet despite this, landlords have never had it so good. Capital values become largely unimportant when the cash is rolling in. Who thinks about realising a value when times are tough and significant after cost cash is rolling in.

I can honestly say almost no LL I meet is remotely focused on price.

It's like shares, if the divis are decent, there's no point giving any thought energy over to price.

Thrugelmir

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yes they did rather.

70% of lending was removed from the US market, the ROI market and the UK market.

All three countries tried record low interest rates, all three countries tried flooding the system with liquidity, all three countries tried help for homeowners, bank bailouts, etc.

Yet here we are today and Irish prices are 50% below peak, in the USA 38% below peak, and in the UK just 10% below peak.

Because Irish housing vacancy rates are at 17%, American housing vacancy rates at 13%, and UK vacancy rates at just 3% (and falling).

So the reality is there was no bubble in UK housing. Just a good old supply shortage.:cool:

And the relevance of this to the UK property or lending markets?