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Jewish Chronicle Article Nov 2008
Comments
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Really. Strange. Because when I posted this dated scan of an actual newspaper article which totally corroborated my claim, I was accused of re-writing history.
Which does rather demonstrate that its not me who has an interesting philosophical stance on 'proof'.
Well done. You have successfully demonstrated that Saint JD made a prediction in 2005 that turned out to be correct. By induction, you have therefore proved that all of Saint JD's predictions are correct.
I like it.0 -
Well done. You have successfully demonstrated that Saint JD made a prediction in 2005 that turned out to be correct. By induction, you have therefore proved that all of Saint JD's predictions are correct.
I like it.
Although he didn't did he? He predicted a sharp drop in 2007 and that didn't happen.0 -
Really. Strange. Because when I posted this dated scan of an actual newspaper article which totally corroborated my claim, I was accused of re-writing history.
Which does rather demonstrate that its not me who has an interesting philosophical stance on 'proof'.
Why do I feel you have a number of clippings like that stuck round a mirror in your bedroom?0 -
JD was wrong in 2004 about 2005 and 2006......
In 2005 he called the crash for 2007, when prices rose 5% instead.
He was right about 2008 (although he called it for 2007) but wrong about the amount of falls in 2008, and 2007, and completely wrong about the cause of those falls.
Then he called for huge falls again in 2009, 2010 and 2011, whilst prices have actually risen markedly from early 2009 when he made the call.
His 2009-2011 prediction of 40% to 50% falls was made after the announcement of QE and low interest rates, yet prices actually rose 10% instead, putting him a massive 60% out from what actually happened.
JD has been so wrong about house prices, he makes Moneyweek or Capital Economics look good... And that takes real work.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »JD was wrong in 2004 about 2005 and 2006......
In 2005 he called the crash for 2007, when prices rose 5% instead.
He was right about 2008 (although he called it for 2007) but wrong about the amount of falls in 2008, and 2007, and completely wrong about the cause of those falls.
Then he called for huge falls again in 2009, 2010 and 2011, whilst prices have actually risen markedly from early 2009 when he made the call.
His 2009-2011 prediction of 40% to 50% falls was made after the announcement of QE and low interest rates, yet prices actually rose 10% instead, putting him a massive 60% out from what actually happened.
JD has been so wrong about house prices, he makes Moneyweek or Capital Economics look good... And that takes real work.
If we were so inclined we could make a probabilistic inference about JD's predictive ability.
He's generally wrong, isn't he?0 -
Has anyone ever worked out how much money Jonny Davis has lost by STR'ing in 2002? Why didn't he wait to STR until 2007, like the editor of Moneyweek did.
Interesting to see that said editor, Merryn Somerset Webb, has since bought back into residential property0 -
Lest we forget:
Worse than the 1990s
"Jonathan Davis is a chartered financial planner at City investment advisers Armstrong Davis.
Note to self NEVER use Armstrong Davis.
Could you image owning an average value house in 2002 and selling it to rent. How angry would you be by now?
How much money would you have lost on rent in the meantime? Money that didn't go towards an investment just lined the pocket of a landlord.0 -
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:
Rinse, rewind, repeat.
Scientists should use these guys as some sort of universal measure,
they're so completely utterly predictable.0
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