End of the road for the house price bulls

chucknorris

Flight2quality wrote: »

The only time the house price bulls can be right now is if we have an economic boom, there is exactly zreo chance of that happening any time soon.

All those green shoots where are they now bulls?

Why does it have to be soon? I'm perfectly happy only paying just over 1% (put that bit in to annoy geneer) on my mortgages taking extra rental profit in lieu of capital growth, that growth will come eventually though and it will be in addition to the extra rental profit taken in the meantime.

Thrugelmir

Flight2quality wrote: »

The only time the house price bulls can be right now is if we have an economic boom, there is exactly zreo chance of that happening any time soon.

All those green shoots where are they now bulls?

The greater issue is the low wage economy that seems to be developing.

So even economic recovery may be accompanied by an overall lower standard of living.

Conrad

Investors are typically netting decent cash returns, in the end that is all that counts. One does not set up a business with thier sole focus on the ultimate selling price, and indeed the business is often passed on to family. It's all about income.

There's a relatively small chance of a big fall in values, and every chance we'll get a lumpy static market for a little while longer, and then substantial capital growth going forward.

Thrugelmire - I've been toying with the spectre of a low wage economy but we've had this prediction many times going back decades, and at each we are told it's different this time, so the wieght of evidence is aginst the scenario playing out.
Capital has an uncanny way of finding it's route to higher income flows, all in good time.

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

Thrugelmire - I've been toying with the spectre of a low wage economy but we've had this prediction many times going back decades, and at each we are told it's different this time, so the wieght of evidence is aginst the scenario playing out.
Capital has an uncanny way of finding it's route to higher income flows, all in good time.

Been in central Spain for 10 days recently. Unemployment for u25's is now 43% over there. Was a real eye opener as to the extent of the "bust". As Spain had the economic miracle that now seems to have been a mirage built on construction (EU funding).

Batchy

The reason there is 43% unemployment is they all want to be footballers, work in media or entertainment.

Thats not life, just graft and earn, its the only way.

As for prices falling, thats great too, since im saving hard to buy my first BTL too... so, this time next year, ill be buying a small property again to let out and pay the mortgage off on a repayment basis! :-) Then potentially another 18 months later there will be another on the cards! Interest only will not be a gooer for me... I want them paid OFF ASAP.

Time to work on that leverage! ;-)

Happy days!

Conrad

I was genuinely and vocally uber bearish on Spannish property even 10 years ago. If it looks like a vast band waggon, it probably is one. I was the same on Dubai property - I was on a Channel 4 property forum and kept warning people away from Dubai in particular and was told in no uncertain terms that my type of negativity was not welcome.

UK is a becon compared to many places such as Spain. If you are lets say a middle Eastern millionaire, there aren't that many places you'd feel safe investing, but London would still be close to top of list when all things considered.

Thrugelmir

47thElement wrote: »

43% :eek: How does that compare with the UK?

Around double.

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

I was genuinely and vocally uber bearish on Spannish property even 10 years ago.

More property than people even in the smaller towns. Yet still very expensive to buy in relation to average wages.