Housepricecrash.co.uk graph is an optical illusion

tomstickland

Yes, it was me that pointed this out (well, I pointed it out and assume that noone else has done so). I wasn't claiming it was a "con", but it does give the illusion of greater growth than there was, based on scaling from the x axis. It's a common "trick" with car engine power graphs. Increase power from 100BHP to 110BHP but plot the graph starting at 70BHP and it looks like a 25% increase.

Regarding starting a y axis at a non-zero value, there's nothing wrong with doing so. I regularly do it so I can zoom in on data.

What type of curve fit has been done to generate the "long term trend"?

Greed

tomstickland wrote:

I wasn't claiming it was a "con"

I think it is.

I'm as bored of HPC theorists as I am of conspiracy theorists.

Maybe it's time for a buildmorehouses.com because supply and demand seems to be driving the market.

Paul_Herring

talksalot81 wrote:

I see two graphs...

I saw only one in both the OP and the quote - suggestions anyone? (Using Firefox, on two different PC's, and only the graph from the site was visible (The left, blue, one if that helps.))

zar

tomstickland wrote:

What type of curve fit has been done to generate the "long term trend"?

Something along the lines of exponential growth - assumes that growth is by a similar percentage each year, so the trend assumes that as house prices increase the percentage increase remains the same each year (2.6% according to nationwide - remember that is for RPI-adjusted prices).

I think I can remember you mentioning the graph before, in fact I've got a feeling I've commented on it before though I can't remember on which forum. Ah well its nice to air these old topics every once in a while.

zar

Paul_Herring wrote:

I saw only one in both the OP and the quote - suggestions anyone? (Using Firefox, on two different PC's, and only the graph from the site was visible (The left, blue, one if that helps.))

err its the first time I've tried putting images on here so I'm not much of an expert, guess it might be a firefox thing, maybe it blocks it? The URL is http://i3.tinypic.com/4hsqgb4.jpg if that helps. Though its not that exciting so don't feel too deprived if you can't see it.

Paul_Herring

Paul_Herring wrote:

I saw only one in both the OP and the quote - suggestions anyone? (Using Firefox, on two different PC's, and only the graph from the site was visible (The left, blue, one if that helps.))

Found the problem (well for me anyway) - it's work's netnanny or whatever they're using to block sites - it was silently blocking tinypic.com - I was able to see it at home on Firefox.

cwcw

Notice the graph is now 6 months out of date. I suspect this is because, if updated, it would illustrate that a steadying/levelling off period has taken place and so the recent peak no longer matches the symmetry of past peaks, thus losing some of the fear factor it tries to invoke.

abaxas

Basically all stats are bollox.

Anyone with an interest will attempt to show what they want to show, HPC is not different to Halifax,Nationwide,Rightmove etc.

If in doubt, 'seasonally adjust' it.

zar

cwcw wrote:

Notice the graph is now 6 months out of date. I suspect this is because, if updated, it would illustrate that a steadying/levelling off period has taken place and so the recent peak no longer matches the symmetry of past peaks, thus losing some of the fear factor it tries to invoke.

It would look something like this...

Thalia_3

For anyone interested, there's a discussion at GHPC of this same issue, but with one poster having produced an alternative real prices graph, without the zero suppressed.

Quite interesting.

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showtopic=16453